Countries with a high share of small and medium plants offer a context for new-right parties, write Christoph Arndt and Line Rennwal

Arndt, Christoph

Rennwald, Line

LSE Research Online

Workers	in	smaller	companies	are	more	likely	tovote	conservativeDoes	company	size	affect	political	attitudes	and	voting	behaviour?	This	was	the	main	question	of	our	recentpaper.	Particularly,	we	wanted	to	examine	whether	company	size	matters	for	traditional	and	new	centre-rightvoting	among	workers.This	is	a	relevant	political	and	empirical	question	because	we	can	observe	a	huge	cross-country	variation	inEurope	when	it	comes	to	the	electoral	success	of	traditional	and	newer	right-wing	parties	compared	with	theirsocial	democratic	opponents.	In	some	countries	(e.g.	Denmark,	Norway	or	Switzerland),	an	important	number	ofworkers	had	turned	to	older	and	newer	right-wing	parties,	while	in	other	countries	they	still	remain	loyal	to	theirtraditional	social	democratic	ally.In	our	view,	company	size	and	industry	structure	are	important	explanations	for	that	pattern	and	we	believe	thatour	research	points	towards	important	structural	explanations	of	working	class	support	for	old	and	new	rightparties	and	its	cross-national	differences.Our	arguments	combine	existing	theories	from	the	field	of	industrial	relations	and	electoral	behaviour.	In	anutshell,	we	argue	first	that	in	small-sized	workplaces,	there	is	less	antagonism	between	employer	andemployees	than	in	larger	ones.	Similarly,	workers	in	smaller	plants	are	typically	less	unionized	and	more	scepticaltowards	trade	unions	compared	to	their	colleagues	in	larger	plants.	Weaker	unionization	in	smallerestablishments	then	implies	lower	saliency	of	issues	related	to	industrial	conflict	and	other	economic	matters	suchas	state	intervention	or	redistribution.We	therefore	expect	workers	in	smaller	companies	to	be	more	“right-wing”	on	economic	issues.	We	also	expectworkers	in	smaller,	less	unionised,	companies	to	be	more	conservative	when	it	comes	to	traditional	values	andimmigration.	This	is	because	unions	dampen	the	effect	of	conservatism	since	union	elites	typically	hold	moreliberal	views	on	non-economic	issues	and	do	communicate	these	to	their	fellow	members.Unions	are	therefore	an	important	mediator	in	the	relationship	between	workplace	size,	political	attitudes	and	votechoice.	Hence,	economic	attitudes	play	a	larger	role	among	the	workforce	in	larger	companies,	while	smallerplants	strengthen	the	effects	of	conservative	attitudes	on	voting	behaviour	in	a	second	step.	Accordingly,	weexpected	workers	in	smaller	plants	to	support	old	and	new	right-wing	parties	to	the	disadvantage	of	socialdemocratic	parties,	which	in	turn	fare	better	in	larger,	unionised	plants.LSE Business Review: Workers in smaller companies are more likely to vote conservative Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-07-25Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2017/07/25/workers-in-smaller-companies-are-more-likely-to-vote-conservative/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/We	use	a	series	of	statistical	models	that	analyse	the	effect	of	company	size	on	political	attitudes	in	the	first	stepand	voting	behaviour	in	the	second	step.	We	employed	data	from	the	European	Social	Survey	for	16	countries	inthe	period	2002-2010.Our	first	analysis	reveals	that	workers	in	smaller	companies	are	indeed	more	right-wing	–	or	market-liberal	–	onsome	socio-economic	issues.	We	also	find	that	employees	in	smaller	plants	favour	less	state	intervention	and	aremore	sceptical	when	it	comes	to	the	need	for	trade	unions.	They	are	also	more	conservative	on	the	issue	ofimmigration,	and	if	satisfied	with	their	work	conditions,	more	conservative	on	traditional	values.	The	oppositepattern	is	true	for	their	colleagues	in	large	plants	(see	Table	1	in	our	article	for	full	documentation).When	we	look	at	vote	choice	in	a	second	step	of	our	analysis,	we	can	see	that	company	size	works	together	withthe	respective	attitudes.	To	ease	presentation,	we	compare	the	probability	of	voting	for	the	social	democraticparty	(e.g.	SAP,	Labour	or	SPÖ)	in	a	given	country	with	the	joint	vote	choice	for	all	established	and	new	right-wing	parties	(e.g.	Moderate	Party,	Danish	People’s	Party	or	CDU/CSU).	The	probabilities	in	Figure	1	show	theexpected	vote	share	for	the	social	democrats	across	our	conservatism	index	(0-100)	and	three	constellations	ofcompany	size.Figure	1:	Effect	of	conservatism	on	social	democratic	support	by	plant	size	and	union	membershipNote:	Bars	denote	95%	confidence	interval.	Source:	Model	5	from	Table	2	in	article	from	BJIRLSE Business Review: Workers in smaller companies are more likely to vote conservative Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-07-25Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2017/07/25/workers-in-smaller-companies-are-more-likely-to-vote-conservative/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/The	overall	pattern	is	that	more	conservative	attitudes	unsurprisingly	diminish	support	for	social	democraticparties	and	strengthen	the	right	since	the	predicted	probability	of	voting	for	the	social	democrats	falls	the	moreconservative	a	voter	is.	This	pattern,	however,	is	strongest	for	a	worker	who	is	not	union	member	and	who	worksin	a	small	company.	Here,	the	effect	of	conservatism	on	voting	for	right-wing	parties	is	strongest.	The	comparisonof	a	unionised	worker	in	a	very	small	and	very	big	company	also	reveals	that	union	membership	is	an	importantcondition	here	since	the	effects	for	these	two	conditions	are	not	that	different	compared	to	the	non-unionisedworker	in	a	small	workplace.	This	supports	our	expectation	that	union	membership	moderates	the	effect	ofconservatism.We	believe	that	our	findings	have	some	notable	implications.	First,	the	article	sheds	light	on	the	difficulties	andopportunities	for	political	parties	to	gain	support	among	workers	in	contexts	where	large	factories	no	longerdominate	the	industrial	landscape.	Unionised	workers	are	usually	more	likely	to	support	social	democratic	partiesthan	right-wing	parties.Consequently,	in	times	of	weaker	unionisation,	social	democratic	parties	are	less	able	to	mobilise	their	historicalcore	constituency,	that	is,	the	working	class.	The	mushrooming	of	smaller	plants	under	industrial	restructuringand	the	corresponding	low	level	of	unionisation	will	therefore	permit	traditional	and	new	conservative	parties	togain	ground	inside	the	working	class	with	a	culture-based	appeal.Without	the	presence	of	unions	who	emphasise	the	importance	of	economic	issues,	workers	in	smaller	plants	aremore	likely	to	consider	cultural	issues	more	important	for	their	vote	choice.	De-unionisation	might	be	well	adecisive	element	for	the	phenomena	of	electoral	dealignment	and	realignment	that	many	Western	Europeancountries	have	faced	since	the	1970s.	Second,	and	in	a	comparative	perspective,	we	believe	that	our	findingscontribute	to	the	understanding	of	favourable	context	conditions	for	the	establishment	of	right-wing	conservativeparties	(such	as	the	Danish	People’s	Party	or	the	Progress	Party	in	Norway).If	workplace	size	has	an	effect	on	workers’	political	attitudes	and	their	voting	behaviour,	then	it	follows	thatcountries	with	an	industry	structure	characterised	by	a	high	share	of	small	and	medium-sized	plants	provide	afavourable	context	for	the	establishment	and	electoral	performance	of	the	new	right	parties.	In	contrast,	countrieswith	the	dominance	of	big	companies	constitute	a	more	difficult	terrain	to	establish	a	new	right	party	and	alsomakes	it	more	difficult	for	established	conservative	parties	to	gain	ground	among	working	class	voters.♣♣♣Notes:This	blog	post	is	based	on	the	authors’	paper	Workplace	Characteristics	and	Working	Class	Vote	for	theOld	and	New	Right,	British	Journal	of	Industrial	Relations,	Vol.	55	Issue	1,	March	2017.The	post	gives	the	views	of	its	authors,	not	the	position	of	LSE	Business	Review	or	the	London	School	ofEconomics.Featured	image	credit:	Dockworker	in	Jutland,	Denmark,	by	Michael	Gäbler,	under	a	CC	BY	3.0	licence,	viaWikimedia	CommonsWhen	you	leave	a	comment,	you’re	agreeing	to	our	Comment	Policy.Christoph	Arndt	is	Assistant	Professor	of	Political	Science	at	Aarhus	University,	Denmark.			LSE Business Review: Workers in smaller companies are more likely to vote conservative Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-07-25Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2017/07/25/workers-in-smaller-companies-are-more-likely-to-vote-conservative/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/Line	Rennwald	is	a	Max	Weber	Fellow	at	the	European	University	Institute	in	Florence.	She	is	apolitical	scientist	whose	research	interests	lie	at	the	crossroads	of	political	sociology,	comparativepolitics	and	industrial	relations.	In	her	PhD,	obtained	at	the	University	of	Geneva,	she	examinedthe	evolution	of	working-class	support	for	social	democratic	parties	in	Western	Europe.	She	iscurrently	pursuing	her	research	on	the	transformations	of	class	voting	with	a	focus	on	the	role	oftrade	unions.LSE Business Review: Workers in smaller companies are more likely to vote conservative Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-07-25Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2017/07/25/workers-in-smaller-companies-are-more-likely-to-vote-conservative/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/

Workers in smaller companies are more likely to vote conservative

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