Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: a mathematical modelling study

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory morbidity and one of the main causes of hospitalisation in young children. While there is currently no licensed vaccine for RSV, a vaccine candidate for pregnant women is undergoing phase 3 trials. We developed a compartmental age-structured model for RSV transmission, validated using linked laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalisation records for metropolitan Western Australia. We adapted the model to incorporate a maternal RSV vaccine, and estimated the expected reduction in RSV hospitalisations arising from such a program. The introduction of a vaccine was estimated to reduce RSV hospitalisations in Western Australia by 6-37% for 0-2month old children, and 30-46% for 3-5month old children, for a range of vaccine effectiveness levels. Our model shows that, provided a vaccine is demonstrated to extend protection against RSV disease beyond the first three months of life, a policy using a maternal RSV vaccine could be effective in reducing RSV hospitalisations in children up to six months of age, meeting the objective of a maternal vaccine in delaying an infant's first RSV infection to an age at which severe disease is less likely

Influenza epidemiology, vaccine coverage and vaccine effectiveness in children admitted to sentinel Australian hospitals in 2014: The influenza complications alert network (FluCAN)

The Influenza Complications Alert Network (FluCAN) is a sentinel hospital-based surveillance programme operating in all states and territories in Australia. We summarise the epidemiology of children hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed influenza in 2014 and reports on the effectiveness of inactivated trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in children. In this observational study, cases were defined as children admitted with acute respiratory illness (ARI) with influenza confirmed by PCR. Controls were hospitalised children with ARI testing negative for influenza. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as 1 minus the odds ratio of vaccination in influenza positive cases compared with test-negative controls using conditional logistic regression models. From April until October 2014, 402 children were admitted with PCR-confirmed influenza. Of these, 28% were aged < 1 year, 16% were Indigenous, and 39% had underlying conditions predisposing to severe influenza. Influenza A was detected in 90% of cases of influenza; influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was the most frequent subtype (109/141 of subtyped cases) followed by A(H3N2) (32/141). Only 15% of children with influenza received antiviral therapy. The adjusted VE of one or more doses of TIV for preventing hospitalised influenza was estimated at 55.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 11.6–77.6%). Effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was high (91.6%, 95% CI: 36.0–98.9%) yet appeared poor against H3N2. In summary, the 2014 southern hemisphere TIV was moderately effective against severe influenza in children. Significant VE was observed against influenza A(H1N1)pdm0

Temporal trends and socioeconomic differences in acute respiratory infection hospitalisations in children: an intercountry comparison of birth cohort studies in Western Australia, England and Scotland

OBJECTIVES: Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a global cause of childhood morbidity. We compared temporal trends and socioeconomic disparities for ARI hospitalisations in young children across Western Australia, England and Scotland. DESIGN: Retrospective population-based cohort studies using linked birth, death and hospitalisation data. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Population birth cohorts spanning 2000-2012 (Western Australia and Scotland) and 2003-2012 (England). OUTCOME MEASURES: ARI hospitalisations in infants (<12 months) and children (1-4 years) were identified through International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition diagnosis codes. We calculated admission rates per 1000 child-years by diagnosis and jurisdiction-specific socioeconomic deprivation and used negative binomial regression to assess temporal trends. RESULTS: The overall infant ARI admission rate was 44.3/1000 child-years in Western Australia, 40.7/1000 in Scotland and 40.1/1000 in England. Equivalent rates in children aged 1-4 years were 9.0, 7.6 and 7.6. Bronchiolitis was the most common diagnosis. Compared with the least socioeconomically deprived, those most deprived had higher ARI hospitalisation risk (incidence rate ratio 3.9 (95% CI 3.5 to 4.2) for Western Australia; 1.9 (1.7 to 2.1) for England; 1.3 (1.1 to 1.4) for Scotland. ARI admissions in infants were stable in Western Australia but increased annually in England (5%) and Scotland (3%) after adjusting for non-ARI admissions, sex and deprivation. CONCLUSIONS: Admissions for ARI were higher in Western Australia and displayed greater socioeconomic disparities than England and Scotland, where ARI rates are increasing. Prevention programmes focusing on disadvantaged populations in all three countries are likely to translate into real improvements in the burden of ARI in children

Aggregation Bias: A Proposal to Raise Awareness Regarding Inclusion in Visual Analytics

Data is a powerful tool to make informed decisions. They can be used to design products, to segment the market, and to design policies. However, trusting so much in data can have its drawbacks. Sometimes a set of indicators can conceal the reality behind them, leading to biased decisions that could be very harmful to underrepresented individuals, for example. It is challenging to ensure unbiased decision-making processes because people have their own beliefs and characteristics and be unaware of them. However, visual tools can assist decision-making processes and raise awareness regarding potential data issues. This work describes a proposal to fight biases related to aggregated data by detecting issues during visual analysis and highlighting them, trying to avoid drawing inaccurate conclusions

Determining the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine coverage required for indirect protection against vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in low and middle-income countries: a protocol for a prospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) prevent disease through both direct protection of vaccinated individuals and indirect protection of unvaccinated individuals by reducing nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage and transmission of vaccine-type (VT) pneumococci. While the indirect effects of PCV vaccination are well described, the PCV coverage required to achieve the indirect effects is unknown. We will investigate the relationship between PCV coverage and VT carriage among undervaccinated children using hospital-based NP pneumococcal carriage surveillance at three sites in Asia and the Pacific. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We are recruiting cases, defined as children aged 2-59 months admitted to participating hospitals with acute respiratory infection in Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mongolia and Papua New Guinea. Thirteen-valent PCV status is obtained from written records. NP swabs are collected according to standard methods, screened using lytA qPCR and serotyped by microarray. Village-level vaccination coverage, for the resident communities of the recruited cases, is determined using administrative data or community survey. Our analysis will investigate the relationship between VT carriage among undervaccinated cases (indirect effects) and vaccine coverage using generalised estimating equations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the relevant ethics committees at participating sites. The results are intended for publication in open-access peer-reviewed journals and will demonstrate methods suitable for low- and middle-income countries to monitor vaccine impact and inform vaccine policy makers about the PCV coverage required to achieve indirect protection

Chronic pain in primary care. German figures from 1991 and 2006

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Until now only limited research has been done on the prevalence of chronic pain in primary care. The aim of this investigation was to study the health care utilisation of patients suffering from pain. How many patients visit an outpatient clinic because of the symptom of pain? These data were compared with data from a similar study in 1991, to investigate whether improvements had been achieved.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 1201 consecutive patients visiting outpatient clinics were surveyed in six practices in the western part of Germany on randomly selected days by means of questionnaires. Topics were the point prevalence of pain and the period prevalence of chronic pain, its characteristics and its impact on daily life, as well as data on previous therapies for pain. A retrospective comparison was made with the data from a similar study with same design surveying 900 patients that took place in five practices during 1991.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2006, pain was the main reason for consulting a doctor in 42.5% of all patients (1991: 50.3%). Of all respondents, 62% suffered from pain on the particular day of the consultation, and 40% reported that they had been suffering from pain for more than six months (1991: 36.4%). As many as 88.3% of patients with chronic pain reported a negative impact on their daily life due to this pain (1991: 68%), and 88.1% reported impairment of their working life because of chronic pain (1991: 59.1%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Pain, and chronic pain in particular, is a central problem in primary care. Over the last 15 years, the number of patients suffering from chronic pain has not decreased. In nearly half of all cases, pain is still the reason for health care utilisation in outpatient clinics. Pain represents a major primary health care problem with enormous impact on public health. Improvements can only be achieved by improving the quality of health care at the primary care level.</p

A Mathematical Framework for Estimating Pathogen Transmission Fitness and Inoculum Size Using Data from a Competitive Mixtures Animal Model

We present a method to measure the relative transmissibility (“transmission fitness”) of one strain of a pathogen compared to another. The model is applied to data from “competitive mixtures” experiments in which animals are co-infected with a mixture of two strains. We observe the mixture in each animal over time and over multiple generations of transmission. We use data from influenza experiments in ferrets to demonstrate the approach. Assessment of the relative transmissibility between two strains of influenza is important in at least three contexts: 1) Within the human population antigenically novel strains of influenza arise and compete for susceptible hosts. 2) During a pandemic event, a novel sub-type of influenza competes with the existing seasonal strain(s). The unfolding epidemiological dynamics are dependent upon both the population's susceptibility profile and the inherent transmissibility of the novel strain compared to the existing strain(s). 3) Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), while providing significant potential to reduce transmission of influenza, exert selective pressure on the virus and so promote the emergence of drug-resistant strains. Any adverse outcome due to selection and subsequent spread of an NAI-resistant strain is exquisitely dependent upon the transmission fitness of that strain. Measurement of the transmission fitness of two competing strains of influenza is thus of critical importance in determining the likely time-course and epidemiology of an influenza outbreak, or the potential impact of an intervention measure such as NAI distribution. The mathematical framework introduced here also provides an estimate for the size of the transmitted inoculum. We demonstrate the framework's behaviour using data from ferret transmission studies, and through simulation suggest how to optimise experimental design for assessment of transmissibility. The method introduced here for assessment of mixed transmission events has applicability beyond influenza, to other viral and bacterial pathogens

Search for CP violation in the decay B0->D*+-D-+

We report a search for CP-violating asymmetry in B0 -> D*+- D-+ decays. The analysis employs two methods of B0 reconstruction: full and partial. In the full reconstruction method all daughter particles of the B0 are required to be detected; the partial reconstruction technique requires a fully reconstructed D- and only a slow pion from the D*+ -> D0 pi_slow+ decay. From a fit to the distribution of the time interval corresponding to the distance between two B meson decay points we calculate the CP-violating parameters and find the significance of nonzero CP asymmetry to be 2.7 standard deviations.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Improved Measurements of Partial Rate Asymmetry in B -> h h Decays

We report improved measurements of the partial rate asymmetry (Acp) in B -> h h decays with 140fb^-1 of data collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB e+e- collider. Here h stands for a charged or neutral pion or kaon and in total five decay modes are included: K-+ pi+-, K0s pi-+, K-+ pi0, pi-+ pi0 and K0s pi0. The flavor of the last decay mode is determined from the accompanying B meson. Using a data sample 4.7 times larger than that of our previous measurement, we find Acp(K-+ pi+-) -0.088+-0.035+-0.013, 2.4 sigma from zero. Results for other decay modes are also presented.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figur

Post-Streptococcal Antibodies Are Associated with Metabolic Syndrome in a Population-Based Cohort

Background: Streptococcal infections are known to trigger autoimmune disorders, affecting millions worldwide. Recently, we found an association between post-streptococcal autoantibodies against Protein Disulphide Isomerase (PDI), an enzyme involved in insulin degradation and insulin resistance. This led us to evaluate associations between post-streptococcal antibodies and metabolic syndrome, as defined by the updated National Cholesterol Education Program definition, 2005. Methods and Findings: Metabolic data (HDL, triglycerides, fasting glucose, blood pressure, waist circumference, BMI, smoking), post-streptococcal antibodies (anti-Streptolysin O (ASO) and anti-PDI), and C-reactive protein (CRP, as a general inflammatory marker), were assessed in 1156 participants of the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort Study. Anti-PDI antibodies were found in 308 participants (26.6%), ASO$100 in 258 (22.3%), and 482 (41.7%) met diagnostic criteria for metabolic syndrome. Anti-PDI antibodies but not ASO were significantly associated with metabolic syndrome [n = 1156, OR 1.463 (95 % CI 1.114, 1.920), p = 0.0062; adjusted for age, gender, education, smoking]. Importantly, the anti-PDI- metabolic syndrome association remained significant after adjusting for CRP and fasting insulin. Conclusions: Post-streptococcal anti-PDI antibodies are associated with metabolic syndrome regardless of fasting insulin and CRP levels. Whereas these data are in line with a growing body of evidence linking infections, immunity an