Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Bovine gene polymorphisms related to fat deposition and meat tenderness

Leptin, thyroglobulin and diacylglycerol O-acyltransferase play important roles in fat metabolism. Fat deposition has an influence on meat quality and consumers' choice. The aim of this study was to determine allele and genotype frequencies of polymorphisms of the bovine genes, which encode leptin (LEP), thyroglobulin (TG) and diacylglycerol O-acyltransferase (DGAT1). A further objective was to establish the effects of these polymorphisms on meat characteristics. We genotyped 147 animals belonging to the Nelore (Bos indicus), Canchim (5/8 Bos taurus + 3/8 Bos indicus), Rubia Gallega X Nelore (1/2 Bos taurus + 1/2 Bos indicus), Brangus Three-way cross (9/16 Bos taurus + 7/16 Bos indicus) and Braunvieh Three-way cross (3/4 Bos taurus + 1/4 Bos indicus) breeds. Backfat thickness, total lipids, marbling score, ribeye area and shear force were fitted, using the General Linear Model (GLM) procedure of the SAS software. The least square means of genotypes and genetic groups were compared using Tukey's test. Allele frequencies vary among the genetic groups, depending on Bos indicus versus Bos taurus influence. The LEP polymorphism segregates in pure Bos indicus Nelore animals, which is a new finding. The T allele of TG is fixed in Nelore, and DGAT1 segregates in all groups, but the frequency of allele A is lower in Nelore animals. The results showed no association between the genotypes and traits studied, but a genetic group effect on these traits was found. So, the genetic background remains relevant for fat deposition and meat tenderness, but the gene markers developed for Bos taurus may be insufficient for Bos indicus

Incorporating Soil-Structure Interaction intoSeismic Response Analyses for Buildings

Soil-structure interaction (SSI) analysis evaluates the collective response anddynamic interplay of three linked systems: the structure, the foundation, and the soil underlying and surrounding the foundation. Problems associated with practical application of SSI for building structures are rooted in a poor understanding of fundamental SSI principles. Implementation in practice is hindered by a literature that is difficult to understand, and codes and standards that contain limited guidance and, in some cases, are proprietary. A recent report published by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) provides a mechanism for advancing the state of practice in SSI for practicing engineers. It offers a synthesis of the body of SSI literature, distilled into a concise narrative and harmonized under a consistent set ofvariables and units. Techniques are described by which SSI phenomena such as foundation-soil compliance and damping (inertial interaction), and foundation-to-free-field ground motion change (kinematic interaction) can be evaluated in engineering practice. Specific recommendations for modeling these and other seismic soil-structure interaction effects on building structures are provided. The resulting recommendations are illustrated and tested though simulations of two example buildings with earthquake recordings

Knee replacement.

Knee-replacement surgery is frequently done and highly successful. It relieves pain and improves knee function in people with advanced arthritis of the joint. The most common indication for the procedure is osteoarthritis. We review the epidemiology of and risk factors for knee replacement. Because replacement is increasingly considered for patients younger than 55 years, improved decision making about whether a patient should undergo the procedure is needed. We discuss assessment of surgery outcomes based on data for revision surgery from national joint-replacement registries and on patient-reported outcome measures. Widespread surveillance of existing implants is urgently needed alongside the carefully monitored introduction of new implant designs. Developments for the future are improved delivery of care and training for surgeons and clinical teams. In an increasingly ageing society, the demand for knee-replacement surgery will probably rise further, and we predict future trends. We also emphasise the need for new strategies to treat early-stage osteoarthritis, which will ultimately reduce the demand for joint-replacement surgery

Comparing predicted and observed ground motions from subduction earthquakes in the Lesser Antilles

This brief article presents a quantitative analysis of the ability of eight published empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for subduction earthquakes (interface and intraslab) to estimate observed earthquake ground motions on the islands of the Lesser Antilles (specifically Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad, and Dominica). In total, over 300 records from 22 earthquakes from various seismic networks are used within the analysis. It is found that most of the GMPEs tested perform poorly, which is mainly due to a larger variability in the observed ground motions than predicted by the GMPEs, although two recent GMPEs derived using Japanese strong-motion data provide reasonably good predictions. Analyzing separately the interface and intraslab events does not significant modify the results. Therefore, it is concluded that seismic hazard assessments for this region should use a variety of GMPEs in order to capture this large epistemic uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion prediction for the Lesser Antilles.John Douglas, Rosemarie Mohai