Continuous record Laplace-based inference about the break date in structural change models

Building upon the continuous record asymptotic framework recently introduced by Casini and Perron (2018a) for inference in structural change models, we propose a Laplace-based (Quasi-Bayes) procedure for the construction of the estimate and confidence set for the date of a structural change. It is defined by an integration rather than an optimization-based method.A transformation of the least-squares criterion function is evaluated in order to derive a proper distribution, referred to as the Quasi-posterior. For a given choice of a loss function, the Laplace-type estimator is the minimizer of the expected risk with the expectation taken under the Quasi-posterior. Besides providing an alternative estimate that is more precise—lower mean absolute error (MAE) and lower root-mean squared error (RMSE)—than the usual least-squares one, the Quasi-posterior distribution can be used to construct asymptotically valid inference using the concept of Highest Density Region. The resulting Laplace-based inferential procedure is shown to have lower MAE and RMSE, and the confidence sets strike the best balance between empirical coverage rates and average lengths of the confidence sets relative to traditional long-span methods, whether the break size is small or large.First author draf

Continuous record asymptotics for structural change models

For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a fixed time horizon [0 , N ], and let T →∞ with h ↓ 0 while keeping the time span N fixed. We impose very mild regularity conditions on an underlying continuous-time model assumed to generate the data. We consider the least-squares estimate of the break date and establish consistency and convergence rate. We provide a limit theory for shrinking magnitudes of shifts and locally increasing variances. The asymptotic distribution corresponds to the location of the extremum of a function of the quadratic variation of the regressors and of a Gaussian centered martingale process over a certain time interval. We can account for the asymmetric informational content provided by the pre- and post-break regimes and show how the location of the break and shift magnitude are key ingredients in shaping the distribution. We consider a feasible version based on plug-in estimates, which provides a very good approximation to the finite sample distribution. We use the concept of Highest Density Region to construct confidence sets. Overall, our method is reliable and delivers accurate coverage probabilities and relatively short average length of the confidence sets. Importantly, it does so irrespective of the size of the break

Continuous record asymptotics for structural change models

For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a fixed time horizon [0, N] , and let T with h 0 while keeping the time span N fixed. We impose very mild regularity conditions on an underlying continuous-time model assumed to generate the data. We consider the least-squares estimate of the break date and establish consistency and convergence rate. We provide a limit theory for shrinking magnitudes of shifts and locally increasing variances. The asymptotic distribution corresponds to the location of the extremum of a function of the quadratic variation of the regressors and of a Gaussian centered martingale process over a certain time interval. We can account for the asymmetric informational content provided by the pre- and post-break regimes and show how the location of the break and shift magnitude are key ingredients in shaping the distribution. We consider a feasible version based on plug-in estimates, which provides a very good approximation to the finite sample distribution. We use the concept of Highest Density Region to construct confidence sets. Overall, our method is reliable and delivers accurate coverage probabilities and relatively short average length of the confidence sets. Importantly, it does so irrespective of the size of the break.First author draf

Generalized Laplace Inference in Multiple Change-Points Models

Under the classical long-span asymptotic framework we develop a class of Generalized Laplace (GL) inference methods for the change-point dates in a linear time series regression model with multiple structural changes analyzed in, e.g., Bai and Perron (1998). The GL estimator is defined by an integration rather than optimization-based method and relies on the least-squares criterion function. It is interpreted as a classical (non-Bayesian) estimator and the inference methods proposed retain a frequentist interpretation. This approach provides a better approximation about the uncertainty in the data of the change-points relative to existing methods. On the theoretical side, depending on some input (smoothing) parameter, the class of GL estimators exhibits a dual limiting distribution; namely, the classical shrinkage asymptotic distribution, or a Bayes-type asymptotic distribution. We propose an inference method based on Highest Density Regions using the latter distribution. We show that it has attractive theoretical properties not shared by the other popular alternatives, i.e., it is bet-proof. Simulations confirm that these theoretical properties translate to better finite-sample performance

Semi-Partitioned Scheduling of Dynamic Real-Time Workload: A Practical Approach Based on Analysis-Driven Load Balancing

Recent work showed that semi-partitioned scheduling can achieve near-optimal schedulability performance, is simpler to implement compared to global scheduling, and less heavier in terms of runtime overhead, thus resulting in an excellent choice for implementing real-world systems. However, semi-partitioned scheduling typically leverages an off-line design to allocate tasks across the available processors, which requires a-priori knowledge of the workload. Conversely, several simple global schedulers, as global earliest-deadline first (G-EDF), can transparently support dynamic workload without requiring a task-allocation phase. Nonetheless, such schedulers exhibit poor worst-case performance. This work proposes a semi-partitioned approach to efficiently schedule dynamic real-time workload on a multiprocessor system. A linear-time approximation for the C=D splitting scheme under partitioned EDF scheduling is first presented to reduce the complexity of online scheduling decisions. Then, a load-balancing algorithm is proposed for admitting new real-time workload in the system with limited workload re-allocation. A large-scale experimental study shows that the linear-time approximation has a very limited utilization loss compared to the exact technique and the proposed approach achieves very high schedulability performance, with a consistent improvement on G-EDF and pure partitioned EDF scheduling

Semi-Partitioned Scheduling of Dynamic Real-Time Workload: A Practical Approach Based on Analysis-Driven Load Balancing

Recent work showed that semi-partitioned scheduling can achieve near-optimal schedulability performance, is simpler to implement compared to global scheduling, and less heavier in terms of runtime overhead, thus resulting in an excellent choice for implementing real-world systems. However, semi-partitioned scheduling typically leverages an off-line design to allocate tasks across the available processors, which requires a-priori knowledge of the workload. Conversely, several simple global schedulers, as global earliest-deadline first (G-EDF), can transparently support dynamic workload without requiring a task-allocation phase. Nonetheless, such schedulers exhibit poor worst-case performance. This work proposes a semi-partitioned approach to efficiently schedule dynamic real-time workload on a multiprocessor system. A linear-time approximation for the C=D splitting scheme under partitioned EDF scheduling is first presented to reduce the complexity of online scheduling decisions. Then, a load-balancing algorithm is proposed for admitting new real-time workload in the system with limited workload re-allocation. A large-scale experimental study shows that the linear-time approximation has a very limited utilization loss compared to the exact technique and the proposed approach achieves very high schedulability performance, with a consistent improvement on G-EDF and pure partitioned EDF scheduling