When to Censor?

Loss to follow-up is an endemic feature of time-to-event analyses that precludes observation of the event of interest. To our knowledge, in typical cohort studies with encounters occurring at regular or irregular intervals, there is no consensus on how to handle person-time between participants’ last study encounter and the point at which they meet a definition of loss to follow-up. We demonstrate, using simulation and an example, that when the event of interest is captured outside of a study encounter (e.g., in a registry), person-time should be censored when the study-defined criterion for loss to follow-up is met (e.g., 1 year after last encounter), rather than at the last study encounter. Conversely, when the event of interest must be measured within the context of a study encounter (e.g., a biomarker value), person-time should be censored at the last study encounter. An inappropriate censoring scheme has the potential to result in substantial bias that may not be easily corrected

Target Validity and the Hierarchy of Study Designs

In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to problems of external validity, specifically to methodological approaches for both quantitative generalizability and transportability of study results. However, most approaches to these issues have considered external validity separately from internal validity. Here we argue that considering either internal or external validity in isolation may be problematic. Further, we argue that a joint measure of the validity of an effect estimate with respect to a specific population of interest may be more useful: We call this proposed measure target validity. In this work, we introduce and formally define target bias as the total difference between the true causal effect in the target population and the estimated causal effect in the study sample, and target validity as target bias = 0. We illustrate this measure with a series of examples and show how this measure may help us to think more clearly about comparisons between experimental and nonexperimental research results. Specifically, we show that even perfect internal validity does not ensure that a causal effect will be unbiased in a specific target population

Transportability of Trial Results Using Inverse Odds of Sampling Weights

Increasingly, the statistical and epidemiologic literature is focusing beyond issues of internal validity and turning its attention to questions of external validity. Here, we discuss some of the challenges of transporting a causal effect from a randomized trial to a specific target population. We present an inverse odds weighting approach that can easily operationalize transportability. We derive these weights in closed form and illustrate their use with a simple numerical example. We discuss how the conditions required for the identification of internally valid causal effects are translated to apply to the identification of externally valid causal effects. Estimating effects in target populations is an important goal, especially for policy or clinical decisions. Researchers and policy-makers should therefore consider use of statistical techniques such as inverse odds of sampling weights, which under careful assumptions can transport effect estimates from study samples to target populations

Subject-specific, multiscale simulation of electrophysiology: a software pipeline for image-based models and application examples

Many simulation studies in biomedicine are based on a similar sequence of processing steps, starting from images and running through geometric model generation, assignment of tissue properties, numerical simulation and visualization of the results—a process known as image-based geometric modelling and simulation. We present an overview of software systems for implementing such a sequence both within highly integrated problem-solving environments and in the form of loosely integrated pipelines. Loose integration in this case indicates that individual programs function largely independently but communicate through files of a common format and support simple scripting, so as to automate multiple executions wherever possible. We then describe three specific applications of such pipelines to translational biomedical research in electrophysiology

The Authors Respond

We welcome the discussion by Huitfeldt and Stensrud on our recent article on generalizing study results. One assumption we listed in the set of sufficient conditions for generalizability was exchangeability between the study sample and the target population, perhaps conditional on a set of covariate

Generalizing Study Results: A Potential Outcomes Perspective

Great care is taken in epidemiologic studies to ensure the internal validity of causal effect estimates; however, external validity has received considerably less attention. When the study sample is not a random sample of the target population, the sample average treatment effect, even if internally valid, cannot usually be expected to equal the average treatment effect in the target population. The utility of an effect estimate for planning purposes and decision making will depend on the degree of departure from the true causal effect in the target population due to problems with both internal and external validity. Herein, we review concepts from recent literature on generalizability, one facet of external validity, using the potential outcomes framework. Identification conditions sufficient for external validity closely parallel identification conditions for internal validity, namely conditional exchangeability; positivity; the same distributions of the versions of treatment; no interference; and no measurement error. We also require correct model specification. Under these conditions, we discuss how a version of direct standardization (the g-formula, adjustment formula, or transport formula) or inverse probability weighting can be used to generalize a causal effect from a study sample to a well-defined target population, and demonstrate their application in an illustrative example

When Does Differential Outcome Misclassification Matter for Estimating Prevalence?

Background: When accounting for misclassification, investigators make assumptions about whether misclassification is "differential" or "nondifferential." Most guidance on differential misclassification considers settings where outcome misclassification varies across levels of exposure, or vice versa. Here, we examine when covariate-differential misclassification must be considered when estimating overall outcome prevalence. Methods: We generated datasets with outcome misclassification under five data generating mechanisms. In each, we estimated prevalence using estimators that (a) ignored misclassification, (b) assumed misclassification was nondifferential, and (c) allowed misclassification to vary across levels of a covariate. We compared bias and precision in estimated prevalence in the study sample and an external target population using different sources of validation data to account for misclassification. We illustrated use of each approach to estimate HIV prevalence using self-reported HIV status among people in East Africa cross-border areas. Results: The estimator that allowed misclassification to vary across levels of the covariate produced results with little bias for both populations in all scenarios but had higher variability when the validation study contained sparse strata. Estimators that assumed nondifferential misclassification produced results with little bias when the covariate distribution in the validation data matched the covariate distribution in the target population; otherwise estimates assuming nondifferential misclassification were biased. Conclusions: If validation data are a simple random sample from the target population, assuming nondifferential outcome misclassification will yield prevalence estimates with little bias regardless of whether misclassification varies across covariates. Otherwise, obtaining valid prevalence estimates requires incorporating covariates into the estimators used to account for misclassification

Relations between fusion cross sections and average angular momenta

We study the relations between moments of fusion cross sections and averages of angular momentum. The role of the centrifugal barrier and the target deformation in determining the effective barrier radius are clarified. A simple method for extracting average angular momentum from fusion cross sections is demonstrated using numerical examples as well as actual data.Comment: 16 REVTeX pages plus 8 included Postscript figures (uses the epsf macro); submitted to Phys. Rev. C; also available at http://nucth.physics.wisc.edu/preprint

Summer CO2 evasion from streams and rivers in the Kolyma River basin, north-east Siberia

Inland water systems are generally supersaturated in carbon dioxide (CO2) and are increasingly recognized as playing an important role in the global carbon cycle. The Arctic may be particularly important in this respect, given the abundance of inland waters and carbon contained in Arctic soils; however, a lack of trace gas measurements from small streams in the Arctic currently limits this understanding.We investigated the spatial variability of CO2 evasion during the summer low-flow period from streams and rivers in the northern portion of the Kolyma River basin in north-eastern Siberia. To this end, partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and gas exchange velocities (k) were measured at a diverse set of streams and rivers to calculate CO2 evasion fluxes. We combined these CO2 evasion estimates with satellite remote sensing and geographic information system techniques to calculate total areal CO2 emissions. Our results show that small streams are substantial sources of atmospheric CO2 owing to high pCO2 and k, despite being a small portion of total inland water surface area. In contrast, large rivers were generally near equilibrium with atmospheric CO2. Extrapolating our findings across the Panteleikha-Ambolikha sub-watersheds demonstrated that small streams play a major role in CO2 evasion, accounting for 86% of the total summer CO2 emissions from inland waters within these two sub-watersheds. Further expansion of these regional CO2 emission estimates across time and space will be critical to accurately quantify and understand the role of Arctic streams and rivers in the global carbon budget

Cannabis use in patients with early psychosis is associated with alterations in putamen and thalamic shape

Around half of patients with early psychosis have a history of cannabis use. We aimed to determine if there are neurobiological differences in these the subgroups of persons with psychosis with and without a history of cannabis use. We expected to see regional deflations in hippocampus as a neurotoxic effect and regional inflations in striatal regions implicated in addictive processes. Volumetric, T1w MRIs were acquired from people with a diagnosis psychosis with (PwP + C = 28) or without (PwP − C = 26) a history of cannabis use; and Controls with (C + C = 16) or without (C − C = 22) cannabis use. We undertook vertex‐based shape analysis of the brainstem, amygdala, hippocampus, globus pallidus, nucleus accumbens, caudate, putamen, thalamus using FSL FIRST. Clusters were defined through Threshold Free Cluster Enhancement and Family Wise Error was set at p < .05. We adjusted analyses for age, sex, tobacco and alcohol use. The putamen (bilaterally) and the right thalamus showed regional enlargement in PwP + C versus PwP − C. There were no areas of regional deflation. There were no significant differences between C + C and C − C. Cannabis use in participants with psychosis is associated with morphological alterations in subcortical structures. Putamen and thalamic enlargement may be related to compulsivity in patients with a history of cannabis use