Long-term trends, current status, and transitions of water quality in Chesapeake Bay

Coincident climatic and human effects strongly influence water-quality properties in estuarine-coastal ecosystems around the world. Time-series data for a number of ecosystems reveal high spatio-temporal variability superimposed on secular trends traceable to nutrient over-enrichment. In this paper, we present new analyses of long-term data for Chesapeake Bay directed at several goals: (1) to distinguish trends from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic effects; (2) to assess long-term trends of water-quality properties reflecting degradation and recovery; (3) to propose numerical water-quality criteria as targets for restoration; (4) to assess progress toward attainment of these targets. The bay has experienced multiple impairments associated with nutrient over-enrichment since World War II, e.g., low dissolved oxygen (DO), decreased water clarity, and harmful algal blooms (HAB). Anthropogenic eutrophication has been expressed as increased chlorophyll-a (chl-a) driven by accelerated nutrient loading from 1945 to 1980. Management intervention led to decreased loading thereafter, but deleterious symptoms of excess nutrients persist. Climatic effects exemplified by irregular “dry” and “wet” periods in the last 30+ years largely explain high inter-annual variability of water-quality properties, requiring adjustments to resolve long-term trends. Here, we extend these analyses at a finer temporal scale to six decades of chl-a, Secchi depth, and nitrite plus nitrate (NO 2 + NO 3 ) data to support trend analyses and the development of numerical water-quality criteria. The proposed criteria build on a conceptual model emphasizing the need to distinguish climatic and human effects in gauging progress to reverse eutrophication in estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Seasonal to Inter-Annual Variability of Primary Production in Chesapeake Bay: Prospects to Reverse Eutrophication and Change Trophic Classification

Estuarine-coastal ecosystems are rich areas of the global ocean with elevated rates of organic matter production supporting major fisheries. Net and gross primary production (NPP, GPP) are essential properties of these ecosystems, characterized by high spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability associated with climatic effects on hydrology. Over 20 years ago, Nixon defined the trophic classification of marine ecosystems based on annual phytoplankton primary production (APPP), with categories ranging from “oligotrophic” to “hypertrophic”. Source data consisting of shipboard measurements of NPP and GPP from 1982 to 2004 for Chesapeake Bay in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States supported estimates of APPP from 300 to 500 g C m−2 yr−1, corresponding to “eutrophic” to “hypertrophic” categories. Here, we developed generalized additive models (GAM) to interpolate the limited spatio-temporal resolution of source data. Principal goals were: (1) to develop predictive models of NPP and GPP calibrated to source data (1982 to 2004); (2) to apply the models to historical (1960s, 1970s) and monitoring (1985 to 2015) data with adjustments for nutrient loadings and climatic effects; (3) to estimate APPP from model predictions of NPP; (4) to test effects of simulated reductions of phytoplankton biomass or nutrient loadings on trophic classification based on APPP. Simulated 40% decreases of euphotic-layer chl-a or TN and NO2 + NO3 loadings led to decreasing APPP sufficient to change trophic classification from “eutrophic’ to “mesotrophic” for oligohaline (OH) and polyhaline (PH) salinity zones, and from “hypertrophic” to “eutrophic” for the mesohaline (MH) salinity zone of the bay. These findings show that improved water quality is attainable with sustained reversal of nutrient over-enrichment sufficient to decrease phytoplankton biomass and APPP

Long-Term Trends of Nutrients and Phytoplankton in Chesapeake Bay

Climate effects on hydrology impart high variability to water-quality properties, including nutrient loadings, concentrations, and phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a), in estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Resolving long-term trends of these properties requires that we distinguish climate effects from secular changes reflecting anthropogenic eutrophication. Here, we test the hypothesis that strong climatic contrasts leading to irregular dry and wet periods contribute significantly to interannual variability of mean annual values of water-quality properties using in situ data for Chesapeake Bay. Climate effects are quantified using annual freshwater discharge from the Susquehanna River together with a synoptic climatology for the Chesapeake Bay region based on predominant sea-level pressure patterns. Time series of water-quality properties are analyzed using historical (1945–1983) and recent (1984–2012) data for the bay adjusted for climate effects on hydrology. Contemporary monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) provides data for a period since mid-1984 that is significantly impacted by anthropogenic eutrophication, while historical data back to 1945 serve as historical context for a period prior to severe impairments. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) are developed for nutrient loadings and concentrations (total nitrogen—TN, nitrate + nitrate—NO2 + NO3) at the Susquehanna River and water-quality properties in the bay proper, including dissolved nutrients (NO2 + NO3, orthophosphate—PO4), chl-a, diffuse light attenuation coefficient (KD (PAR)), and chl-a/TN. Each statistical model consists of a sum of nonlinear functions to generate flow-adjusted time series and compute long-term trends accounting for climate effects on hydrology. We present results identifying successive periods of (1) eutrophication ca. 1945–1980 characterized by approximately doubled TN and NO2 + NO3 loadings, leading to increased chl-a and associated ecosystem impairments, and (2) modest decreases of TN and NO2 + NO3 loadings from 1981 to 2012, signaling a partial reversal of nutrient over-enrichment. Comparison of our findings with long-term trends of water-quality properties for a variety of estuarine and coastal ecosystems around the world reveals that trends for Chesapeake Bay are weaker than for other systems subject to strenuous management efforts, suggesting that more aggressive actions than those undertaken to date will be required to counter anthropogenic eutrophication of this valuable resource

When Is a Principal Charged With an Agent’s Knowledge?

Question: Detecting species presence in vegetation and making visual assessment of abundances involve a certain amount of skill, and therefore subjectivity. We evaluated the magnitude of the error in data, and its consequences for evaluating temporal trends. Location: Swedish forest vegetation. Methods: Vegetation data were collected independently by two observers in 342 permanent 100-m2 plots in mature boreal forests. Each plot was visited by one observer from a group of 36 and one of two quality assessment observers. The cover class of 29 taxa was recorded, and presence/absence for an additional 50. Results: Overall, one third of each occurrence was missed by one of the two observers, but with large differences among species. There were more missed occurrences at low abundances. Species occurring at low abundance when present tended to be frequently overlooked. Variance component analyses indicated that cover data on 5 of 17 species had a significant observer bias. Observer-explained variance was < 10% in 15 of 17 species. Conclusion: The substantial number of missed occurrences suggests poor power in detecting changes based on presence/absence data. The magnitude of observer bias in cover estimates was relatively small, compared with random error, and therefore potentially analytically tractable. Data in this monitoring system could be improved by a more structured working model during field work.Original publication: Milberg, P., Bergstedt, J., Fridman, J., Odell, G & Westerberg, L., Systematic and random variation in vegetation monitoring data, 2008, Journal of Vegetation Science, (19), 633-644. http://dx.doi.org/10.3170/2008-8-18423. Copyright: Opulus Press, http://www.opuluspress.se/index.ph

The σ\sigma pole in J/ψ→ωπ+π−J/\psi \to \omega \pi^+ \pi^-

Using a sample of 58 million $J/\psi$ events recorded in the BESII detector, the decay $J/\psi \to \omega \pi^+ \pi^-$ is studied. There are conspicuous $\omega f_2(1270)$ and $b_1(1235)\pi$ signals. At low $\pi \pi$ mass, a large broad peak due to the $\sigma$ is observed, and its pole position is determined to be $(541 \pm 39)$ - $i$ $(252 \pm 42)$ MeV from the mean of six analyses. The errors are dominated by the systematic errors.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, submitted to PL

Reduction of deuterium content in carbon targets for 12C+12C reaction studies of astrophysical interest

The 12C(12C,p)23Na and 12C(12C,$\alpha$)20Ne fusion reactions are among the most important in stellar evolution since they determine the destiny of massive ($M \simeq 8-10 M_{\odot}$) stars. However, experimental low-energy investigations of such reactions are significantly hampered by ubiquitous natural hydrogen and deuterium contaminants in the carbon targets. The associated beam-induced background completely masks the reaction products of interest thus preventing cross-section measurements at the relevant energies of astrophysical interest, $E_{\mathrm{cm}} < 2$ MeV. In this work, we report about an investigation aimed at assessing possible deuterium reductions on both natural graphite and Highly Ordered Pyrolytic Graphite targets as a function of target temperature. Our results indicate that reductions up to about 80% can be attained on both targets in the temperature range investigated, $T \simeq 200-1200 {}^{\circ}$C. A further reduction by a factor of 2.5 in absolute deuterium content is observed when the scattering chamber is surrounded by a dry nitrogen atmosphere so as to minimise light-particles uptake within the chamber rest gas (and thus on target) through air leaks. The results from this study will inform the choice of optimal experimental conditions and procedures for improved measurements of the 12C + 12C reactions cross-sections at the low energies of astrophysical interest

The Integration Process for Incorporating Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research Results into the National Nuclear Security Administration Knowledge Base

The process of developing the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Knowledge Base (KB) must result in high-quality Information Products in order to support activities for monitoring nuclear explosions consistent with United States treaty and testing moratoria monitoring missions. The validation, verification, and management of the Information Products is critical to successful scientific integration, and hence, will enable high-quality deliveries to be made to the United States National Data Center (USNDC) at the Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC). As an Information Product passes through the steps necessary to become part of a delivery to AFTAC, domain experts (including technical KB Working Groups that comprise NNSA and DOE laboratory staff and the customer) will provide coordination and validation, where validation is the determination of relevance and scientific quality. Verification is the check for completeness and correctness, and will be performed by both the Knowledge Base Integrator and the Scientific Integrator with support from the Contributor providing two levels of testing to assure content integrity and performance. The Information Products and their contained data sets will be systematically tracked through the integration portion of their life cycle. The integration process, based on lessons learned during its initial implementations, is presented in this report