The Former USSR Forest Sector and Capital Constraints

This study presents an analysis of the likely capital constraints that Russia and other republics of the former Soviet Union will face under evolving competitive market conditions. As such it serves as a first step in determining the future of forestry in the former Soviet republics, particularly Russia. The objectives of the study are to identify likely competitive price responses in the former Soviet Union market for roundwood, the likely impacts of different levels of roundwood exports on international prices and the feedback of international prices may have on the domestic price. The study postulates that, without adequate levels of investments in harvesting and processing capacity, domestic demand -- with below international market prices -- will further erode the existing capital base. As a consequence capital constraints will lead to serious shortages in wood supply in the near future in the absence of capital investment. A more rapid approach to market prices would force serious inflationary pressures on domestic demand. The results of the study may be used to determine possible policy strategies needed to forestall a decline in output in the forest sector. A collapse of the forest sector will lead to serious wood shortages in meeting the domestic demands of former Soviet republics and may lead to a deterioration in the environment. Lower returns to the sector will limit forest management activities. The forest sector may also miss the opportunity to raise foreign exchange in international markets

Epicyclic frequencies derived from the effective potential: simple and practical formulae

We present and discuss a short and simple derivation of orbital epicyclic frequencies for circular geodesic orbits in stationary and axially symmetric spacetimes. Such spacetimes include as special cases analytically known black hole Kerr and Schwarzschild spacetimes, as well as the analytic Hartle-Thorne spacetime and all numerically constructed spacetimes relevant for rotating neutron stars. Our derivation follows directly from energy and angular momentum conservation and it uses the concept of the effective potential. It has never been published, except for a few special cases, but it has already become a part of the common knowledge in the field.Comment: Invited lecture at the conference "From X-ray Binaries to Quasars: Black Hole Accretion on All Mass Scales", 13-15 July, 2004, Amsterda

Laboratory simulation of cometary x rays using a high-resolution microcalorimeter

X-ray emission following charge exchange has been studied on the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory electron beam ion traps EBIT-I and EBIT-II using a high-resolution microcalorimeter. The measured spectra include the K-shell emission from hydrogenlike and heliumlike C, N, O, and Ne needed for simulations of cometary x-ray emission. A comparison of the spectra produced in the interaction of O8+ with N2 and CH4 is presented that illustrates the dependence of the observed spectrum on the interaction gas.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figure

Multiplicity distributions inside parton cascades developing in a medium

The explanation of the suppression of high-pT hadron yields at RHIC in terms of jet-quenching implies that the multiplicity distributions of particles inside a jet and jet-like particle correlations differ strongly in nucleus-nucleus collisions at RHIC or at the LHC from those observed at e+e- or hadron colliders. We present a framework for describing the medium-induced modification, which has a direct interpretation in terms of a probabilistic medium-modified parton cascade, and which treats leading and subleading partons on an equal footing. We show that our approach can account for the strong suppression of single inclusive hadron spectra measured in Au-Au collisions at RHIC, and that this implies a characteristic distortion of the single inclusive distribution of soft partons inside the jet. We determine, as a function of the jet energy, to what extent the soft fragments within a jet can be measured above some momentum cut.Comment: 5 pages, 4 eps-figures; talk given at Hot Quarks 2006, Villasimius (Sardinia, Italy), May 15-20, 200

Examining national and district-level trends in neonatal health in Peru through an equity lens:A success story driven by political will and societal advocacy

Abstract Background Peru has impressively reduced its neonatal mortality rate (NMR). We aimed, for the period 2000–2013, to: (a) describe national and district NMR variations over time; (b) assess NMR trends by wealth quintile and place of residence; (c) describe evolution of mortality causes; (d) assess completeness of registered mortality; (e) assess coverage and equity of NMR-related interventions; and (f) explore underlying driving factors. Methods We compared national NMR time trends from different sources. To describe NMR trends by wealth quintiles, place of residence and districts, we pooled data on births and deaths by calendar year for neonates born to women interviewed in multiple surveys. We disaggregated coverage of NMR-related interventions by wealth quintiles and place of residence. To identify success factors, we ran regression analyses and combined desk reviews with qualitative interviews and group discussions. Results NMR fell by 51 % from 2000 to 2013, second only to Brazil in Latin America. Reduction was higher in rural and poorest segments (52 and 58 %). District NMR change varied by source. Regarding cause-specific NMRs, prematurity decreased from 7.0 to 3.2 per 1,000 live births, intra-partum related events from 2.9 to 1.2, congenital abnormalities from 2.4 to 1.8, sepsis from 1.9 to 0.8, pneumonia from 0.9 to 0.4, and other conditions from 1.2 to 0.7. Under-registration of neonatal deaths decreased recently, more in districts with higher development index and lower rural population. Coverage of family planning, antenatal care and skilled birth attendance increased more in rural areas and in the poorest quintile. Regressions did not show consistent associations between mortality and predictors. During the study period social determinants improved substantially, and dramatic out-of-health-sector and health-sector changes occurred. Rural areas and the poorest quintile experienced greater NMR reduction. This progress was driven, within a context of economic growth and poverty reduction, by a combination of strong societal advocacy and political will, which translated into pro-poor implementation of evidence-based interventions with a rights-based approach. Conclusions Although progress in Peru for reducing NMR has been remarkable, future challenges include closing remaining gaps for urban and rural populations and improving newborn health with qualified staff and intermediate- and intensive-level health facilities

Stability of trapped Bose-Einstein condensates

In three-dimensional trapped Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC), described by the time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii-Ginzburg equation, we study the effect of initial conditions on stability using a Gaussian variational approach and exact numerical simulations. We also discuss the validity of the criterion for stability suggested by Vakhitov and Kolokolov. The maximum initial chirp (initial focusing defocusing of cloud) that can lead a stable condensate to collapse even before the number of atoms reaches its critical limit is obtained for several specific cases. When we consider two- and three-body nonlinear terms, with negative cubic and positive quintic terms, we have the conditions for the existence of two phases in the condensate. In this case, the magnitude of the oscillations between the two phases are studied considering sufficient large initial chirps. The occurrence of collapse in a BEC with repulsive two-body interaction is also shown to be possible.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figure

Herd-level risk factors of bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales after the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

We present the results of a 2005 case–control study of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns in English and Welsh herds. The herd management, farming practices, and environmental factors of 401matched pairs of case and control herds were investigated to provide a picture of herd-level risk factors in areas of varying bTB incidence. A global conditional logistic regression model, with region-specific variants, was used to compare case herds that had experienced a confirmed bTB breakdown to contemporaneous control herds matched on region, herd type, herd size, and parish testing interval. Contacts with cattle from contiguous herds and sourcing cattle from herds with a recent history of bTB were associated with an increased risk in both the global and regional analyses. Operating a farm over several premises, providing cattle feed inside the housing, and the presence of badgers were also identified as significantly associated with an increased bTB risk. Steps taken to minimize cattle contacts with neighboring herds and altering trading practices could have the potential to reduce the size of the bTB epidemic. In principle, limiting the interactions between cattle and wildlife may also be useful; however this study did not highlight any specific measures to implement