A Test of Fischer's Theory of Monetary Misperceptions and the Business Cycle in the Presence of Long-Term Contracts

This article uses multi-period ex ante anticipations of money supply growth to estimate the parameters of a model, suggested by Stanley Fischer, in which money affects real variables only through multi-period errors in anticipations. This model is tested against an alternative, first evaluated empirically by Robert Barro, in which money affects real variables only through single period errors in anticipations. The two models are compared using the "P" test procedure for non-nested models suggested by Davidson and MacKinnon. The small sample properties of the test are unknown. Random experiments are performed to approximate these properties. On the basis of estimated small scale distributions, the Fischer model rejects the Barro model at conventional levels, but is not rejected by it.Business Cycles; Cycle; Monetary; Money; Supply

Tax Policy and Business Fixed Investment During the Regan Era

We examine the impact of major tax legislation on business capital investment during the 1980-88 period. We detail the tax changes and imbed them into a neoclassical rental price of capital goods. We then use this rental price in two popular models of business fixed investment, a standard and a modified neo-classical model. We estimate these two models along with an accelerator model of capital investment. The models, in general, exhibit parameter instability regardless of fit. We then develop a model incorporating expected delivery lags for new capital goods and embed a forecasted output and the rental price of capital services. Again, parameter instability and fit are examined. Finally we conduct simulations of tax, price and output shocks. We conclude that the new model has parameter stability, and that the net effect of Reagan's tax policies was small

Transmission electron microscopical studies of the layered structure of the ternary semiconductor CuIn₅Se₈

The structure of the off-stoichiometric In-rich ternary phase CuIn5Se8 was studied by means of electron diffraction and high-resolution electron microscopy. The compound shows a layered structure with a 7-layer stacking sequence of closed-packed planes, which contains both cubic and hexagonal stacking of Se atoms. The studied CuIn5Se8 bulk crystal is known as the b-phase of this compound

New Measurements of Fine-Scale CMB Polarization Power Spectra from CAPMAP at Both 40 and 90 GHz

We present new measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization from the final season of the Cosmic Anisotropy Polarization MAPper (CAPMAP). The data set was obtained in winter 2004-2005 with the 7 m antenna in Crawford Hill, New Jersey, from 12 W-band (84-100 GHz) and 4 Q-band (36-45 GHz) correlation polarimeters with 3.3' and 6.5' beamsizes, respectively. After selection criteria were applied, 956 (939) hours of data survived for analysis of W-band (Q-band) data. Two independent and complementary pipelines produced results in excellent agreement with each other. A broad suite of null tests as well as extensive simulations showed that systematic errors were minimal, and a comparison of the W-band and Q-band sky maps revealed no contamination from galactic foregrounds. We report the E-mode and B-mode power spectra in 7 bands in the range 200 < l < 3000, extending the range of previous measurements to higher l. The E-mode spectrum, which is detected at 11 sigma significance, is in agreement with cosmological predictions and with previous work at other frequencies and angular resolutions. The BB power spectrum provides one of the best limits to date on B-mode power at 4.8 uK^2 (95% confidence).Comment: 19 pages, 17 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Ap

A mineralogical record of ocean change: decadal and centennial patterns in the California mussel

Ocean acidification, a product of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, may already have affected calcified organisms in the coastal zone, such as bivalves and other shellfish. Understanding species’ responses to climate change requires the context of long-term dynamics. This can be particularly difficult given the longevity of many important species in contrast with the relatively rapid onset of environmental changes. Here, we present a unique archival dataset of mussel shells from a locale with recent environmental monitoring and historical climate reconstructions. We compare shell structure and composition in modern mussels, mussels from the 1970s, and mussel shells dating back to 1000–2420 years BP. Shell mineralogy has changed dramatically over the past 15 years, despite evidence for consistent mineral structure in the California mussel, Mytilus californianus, over the prior 2500 years. We present evidence for increased disorder in the calcium carbonate shells of mussels and greater variability between individuals. These changes in the last decade contrast markedly from a background of consistent shell mineralogy for centuries. Our results use an archival record of natural specimens to provide centennial-scale context for altered minerology and variability in shell features as a response to acidification stress and illustrate the utility of long-term studies and archival records in global change ecology. Increased variability between individuals is an emerging pattern in climate change responses, which may equally expose the vulnerability of organisms and the potential of populations for resilience

Moving beyond the ‘language problem': developing an understanding of the intersections of health, language and immigration status in interpreter-mediated health encounters

Health systems internationally are dealing with greater diversity in patient populations. However the focus on ‘the language problem’ has meant little attention is paid to diversity within and between migrant populations; and how interpreted consultations are influenced by intersecting migratory, ethnicity and sociodemographic variables. Our analysis of the experiences of patients, health care providers and interpreters in Scotland evidences the need to move beyond language, addressing multiple hidden inequalities in health care access and provision that operate in both clinic and, especially, home-based settings. We call for a practice-evidenced research agenda promoting cultural communication across health care and home settings, acknowledging immigration status as a social determinant of health. Sur le plan international, des systèmes de santé font face à une diversité croissante dans ses populations de patients. Cependant, l’accent sur ‘le problème de langue’ se traduit dans une manque d’attention à la diversité a l’intérieur même et entre des populations des migrants; et la façon par laquelle des variables migratoire, ethnique et sociodémographique influencent elles-mêmes des consultations interprétées. Notre analyse des expériences des patients, des professionnels fournissant de soins de santé et des interprètes offre des preuves du besoin de dépasser le problème de langue. Et en faisant cela, nous adressons des multiples inégalités, souvent cachées dans des contextes de soins de santé, dans les milieux clinique et domicile. Nous proposons un programme de recherche basé sur la pratique, qui favorise la communication culturelle dans des milieux clinique et domicile, et qui reconnait le statut d’immigration comme un déterminant social de la santé

Effects of vitamin D, omega-3 fatty acids and a home exercise program on prevention of pre-frailty in older adults : The DO-HEALTH randomized clinical trial

Background The benefits of supplemental vitamin D3, marine omega-3 fatty acids, and a simple home exercise program (SHEP) on frailty prevention in generally healthy community-dwelling older adults are unclear. Objective To test the effect of vitamin D3, omega-3s, and a SHEP, alone or in combination on incident pre-frailty and frailty in robust older adults over a follow-up of 36 months. Methods DO-HEALTH is a multi-center, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 2x2x2 factorial randomized clinical trial among generally healthy European adults aged 70 years or older, who had no major health events in the 5 years prior to enrollment, sufficient mobility and intact cognitive function. As a secondary outcome of the DO-HEALTH trial, among the subset of participants who were robust at baseline, we tested the individual and combined benefits of supplemental 2,000 IU/day of vitamin D3, 1 g/day of marine omega-3s, and a SHEP on the odds of being pre-frail and frail over 3 years of follow-up. Results At baseline, 1,137 out of 2,157 participants were robust (mean age 74.3 years, 56.5% women, mean gait speed 1.18 m/s). Over a median follow-up time of 2.9 years, 696 (61.2%) became pre-frail and 29 (2.6%) frail. Odds ratios for becoming pre-frail were not significantly lower for vitamin D3, or omega 3-s, or SHEP, individually, compared to control (placebo for the supplements and control exercise). However, the three treatments combined showed significantly decreased odds (OR 0.61 [95% CI 0.38–0.98; p=0.04) of becoming pre-frail compared to control. None of the individual treatments or their combination significantly reduced the odds of becoming frail. Conclusion Robust, generally healthy and active older adults without major comorbidities, may benefit from a combination of high-dose, supplemental vitamin D3, marine omega-3s, and SHEP with regard to the risk of becoming pre-frail over 3 years

Effects of Vitamin D, Omega-3 Fatty Acids and a Home Exercise Program on Prevention of Pre-Frailty in Older Adults: The DO-HEALTH Randomized Clinical Trial

Background: The benefits of supplemental vitamin D3, marine omega-3 fatty acids, and a simple home exercise program (SHEP) on frailty prevention in generally healthy community-dwelling older adults are unclear. Objective: To test the effect of vitamin D3, omega-3s, and a SHEP, alone or in combination on incident pre-frailty and frailty in robust older adults over a follow-up of 36 months. Methods: DO-HEALTH is a multi-center, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 2x2x2 factorial randomized clinical trial among generally healthy European adults aged 70 years or older, who had no major health events in the 5 years prior to enrollment, sufficient mobility and intact cognitive function. As a secondary outcome of the DO-HEALTH trial, among the subset of participants who were robust at baseline, we tested the individual and combined benefits of supplemental 2,000 IU/day of vitamin D3, 1 g/day of marine omega-3s, and a SHEP on the odds of being pre-frail and frail over 3 years of follow-up. Results: At baseline, 1,137 out of 2,157 participants were robust (mean age 74.3 years, 56.5% women, mean gait speed 1.18 m/s). Over a median follow-up time of 2.9 years, 696 (61.2%) became pre-frail and 29 (2.6%) frail. Odds ratios for becoming pre-frail were not significantly lower for vitamin D3, or omega 3-s, or SHEP, individually, compared to control (placebo for the supplements and control exercise). However, the three treatments combined showed significantly decreased odds (OR 0.61 [95% CI 0.38-0.98; p=0.04) of becoming pre-frail compared to control. None of the individual treatments or their combination significantly reduced the odds of becoming frail. Conclusion: Robust, generally healthy and active older adults without major comorbidities, may benefit from a combination of high-dose, supplemental vitamin D3, marine omega-3s, and SHEP with regard to the risk of becoming pre-frail over 3 years. Keywords: Frailty prevention; clinical trial; older adults

Multiple-scattering effects on incoherent neutron scattering in glasses and viscous liquids

Incoherent neutron scattering experiments are simulated for simple dynamic models: a glass (with a smooth distribution of harmonic vibrations) and a viscous liquid (described by schematic mode-coupling equations). In most situations multiple scattering has little influence upon spectral distributions, but it completely distorts the wavenumber-dependent amplitudes. This explains an anomaly observed in recent experiments