Fertility control as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger (Meles meles) populations in south-west England: predictions from a spatial stochastic simulation model

A spatial stochastic simulation model was used to assess the potential of fertility control, based on a yet-to-be-developed oral bait-delivered contraceptive directed at females, for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in south-west England. The contraceptive had a lifelong effect so that females rendered sterile in any particular year remained so for the rest of their lives. The efficacy of fertility control alone repeated annually for varying periods of time was compared with a single culling operation and integrated control involving an initial single cull followed by annually repeated fertility control. With fertility control alone, in no instance was the disease eradicated completely while a viable badger population (mean group size of at least one individual) was still maintained. Near eradication of the disease (less than 1% prevalence) combined with the survival of a minimum viable badger population was only achieved under a very limited set of conditions, either with high efficiency of control (95%) over a short time period (1-3 years) or a low efficiency of control (20%) over an intermediate time period (10-20 years). Under these conditions, it took more than 20 years for the disease to decline to such low levels. A single cull of 80% efficiency succeeded in near eradication of the disease (below 1% prevalence) after a period of 6-8 years, while still maintaining a viable badger population. Integrated strategies reduced disease prevalence more rapidly and to lower levels than culling alone, although the mean badger group size following the onset of control was smaller. Under certain integrated strategies, principally where a high initial cull (80%) was followed by fertility control over a short (1-3 year) time period, the disease could be completely eradicated while a viable badger population was maintained. However, even under the most favourable conditions of integrated control, it took on average more than 12 years following the onset of control for the disease to disappear completely from the badger population. These results show that whilst fertility control would not be a successful strategy for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers if used alone, it could be effective if used with culling as part of an integrated strategy. This type of integrated strategy is likely to be more effective in terms of disease eradication than a strategy employing culling alone. However, the high cost of developing a suitable fertility control agent, combined with the welfare and conservation implications, are significant factors which should be taken into account when considering its possible use as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in the UK

Centrality in valued graphs: A measure of betweenness based on network flow

A new measure of centrality, C,, is introduced. It is based on the concept of network flows. While conceptually similar to Freeman’s original measure, Ca, the new measure differs from the original in two important ways. First, C, is defined for both valued and non-valued graphs. This makes C, applicable to a wider variety of network datasets. Second, the computation of C, is not based on geodesic paths as is C, but on all the independent paths between all pairs of points in the network

Tradeoff analysis for electric power planning in New England

The use of a multi-attribute trade-off analysis technique as a vehicle to provide information to a diverse group of electric industry interests can play a beneficial role for developing long-range strategies for the electric power sector. The advisory group/analysis team structure presented here allows different groups to evaluate multiple issues simultaneously, incorporating the range of supply and demand options, and future uncertainties characteristic of complex systems.The initial phase of such an Integrated Resource Planning project for New England electric power industry has identified that: significant gains in the areas of reliability and environmental emissions can be made by the introduction of new generating technologies; the recent emphasis on natural gas fired technologies should be matched by an effort to ensure adequate supplies of gas, and other effort to guard against fuel related vulnerabilities

INCREASING PATIENT DEMAND FOR HOME MEDICINES REVIEWS: A MARKETING PLAN RESEARCH STUDY

Objectives: 1. To deliver a marketing plan which proposes strategies to increase consumer uptake of HMRs. Sub -objectives were to assess the: Awareness levels of eligible non-recipients prior to participation in this study Perceived potential benefits and barriers of having an HMR Perceived HMR facilitators Satisfaction levels of HMR recipients Intention to have an (another) HMR if the GP suggested it Intention to ask the GP for an (another) HMR and to recommend the service to others Drivers of perceived benefits, barriers and facilitators; drivers of satisfaction, intention to have and to ask GP for an (another) HMR Medicine information sources Differences across specific low incidence consumer groups vs. the broad HMR target population. 2. To investigate the extent to which pharmacists could cope with an increased demand for HMR services due to a possible increas e in consumer awareness and demand for HMRs. Key findings 1. Very low HMR awareness among eligible non-recipients 2. Extremely high HMR satisfaction levels among HMR recipients 3. Very positive HMR perceptions among eligible nonrecipients after being informed about the service Further research Focus on patients/carers of non-English speaking backgrounds, patients with cognitive disabilities, those who have recently been discharged from hospital and those who have refused to have an HMR Longitudinal studies for investigation of HMR effects on an individual’s attitudes/long-term behaviours Very strong latent demand for HMR service Immense opportunity to increase HMR uptake through direct-to-consumer promotion (For marketing strategies see poster 1 “Marketing Plan”)Pharmacy Guild of Australi

Asymptotic behavior of the Kleinberg model

We study Kleinberg navigation (the search of a target in a d-dimensional lattice, where each site is connected to one other random site at distance r, with probability proportional to r^{-a}) by means of an exact master equation for the process. We show that the asymptotic scaling behavior for the delivery time T to a target at distance L scales as (ln L)^2 when a=d, and otherwise as L^x, with x=(d-a)/(d+1-a) for ad+1. These values of x exceed the rigorous lower-bounds established by Kleinberg. We also address the situation where there is a finite probability for the message to get lost along its way and find short delivery times (conditioned upon arrival) for a wide range of a's

Ejection of Supernova-Enriched Gas From Dwarf Disk Galaxies

We examine the efficiency with which supernova-enriched gas may be ejected from dwarf disk galaxies, using a methodology previously employed to study the self-enrichment efficiency of dwarf spheroidal systems. Unlike previous studies that focused on highly concentrated starbursts, in the current work we consider discrete supernova events spread throughout various fractions of the disk. We model disk systems having gas masses of 10^8 and 10^9 solar masses with supernova rates of 30, 300, and 3000 per Myr. The supernova events are confined to the midplane of the disk, but distributed over radii of 0, 30, and 80% of the disk radius, consistent with expectations for Type II supernovae. In agreement with earlier studies, we find that the enriched material from supernovae is largely lost when the supernovae are concentrated near the nucleus, as expected for a starburst event. In contrast, however, we find the loss of enriched material to be much less efficient when the supernovae occur over even a relatively small fraction of the disk. The difference is due to the ability of the system to relax following supernova events that occur over more extended regions. Larger physical separations also reduce the likelihood of supernovae going off within low-density "chimneys" swept out by previous supernovae. We also find that, for the most distributed systems, significant metal loss is more likely to be accompanied by significant mass loss. A comparison with theoretical predications indicates that, when undergoing self-regulated star formation, galaxies in the mass range considered shall efficiently retain the products of Type II supernovae.Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures, to appear in Astrophysical Journal; higher resolution figures available through Ap

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data : how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Acknowledgements LS was supported by two STSMs by the COST Action ES1101 ”Harmonising Global Biodiversity Modelling“ (Harmbio), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). JMB and SMW were funded by CEH projects NEC05264 and NEC05100. JMJT and SCFP are grateful for the support of the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NE/J008001/1). LS, JAH and JMJT conceived the original idea. LS, JAH, JMB, TC & JMJT designed the study; LS collected the data; LS and TC performed the statistical analyses; LS conducted the integrodifference modelling assisted by JMB and SMW. LS conducted the individual-based modelling assisted by SCFP. LS led the writing supported by JMJT, JMB, SCFP, SMW, TC, JAH and GB.Peer reviewedPublisher PD