Determinants of agricultural land abandonment in post-soviet European Russia

Socio-economic and institutional changes may accelerate land-use and land-cover change. Our goal was to explore the determinants of agricultural land abandonment within one agro-climatic and economic region of post-Soviet European Russia during the first decade of transition from a state-command to market-driven economy (between 1990 and 2000). We integrated maps of abandoned agricultural land derived from 30 m resolution Landsat TM/ETM+ images, environmental and socioeconomic variables and estimated logistic regressions. Results showed that post-Soviet agricultural land abandonment was significantly associated with lower average grain yields in the late 1980s, higher distance from the populated places, areas with low population densities, for isolated agricultural areas within the forest matrix and near the forest edges. Hierarchical partitioning showed that average grain yields in the late 1980s contributed the most in explaining the variability of agricultural land abandonment, followed by location characteristics of the land. While the spatial patterns correspond to the classic micro-economic theories of von Thünen and Ricardo, it was largely the macro-scale driving forces that fostered agricultural abandonment. In the light of continuum depopulation process in the studied region of European Russia, we expect continuing agricultural abandonment after the year 2000. --agricultural land abandonment,institutional change, land use change,spatial analysis,logistic regression,remote sensing,Russia

Global priorities for conservation across multiple dimensions of mammalian diversity

Conservation priorities that are based on species distribution, endemism, and vulnerability may underrepresent biologically unique species as well as their functional roles and evolutionary histories. To ensure that priorities are biologically comprehensive, multiple dimensions of diversity must be considered. Further, understanding how the different dimensions relate to one another spatially is important for conservation prioritization, but the relationship remains poorly understood. Here, we use spatial conservation planning to (i) identify and compare priority regions for global mammal conservation across three key dimensions of biodiversity-taxonomic, phylogenetic, and traits-and (ii) determine the overlap of these regions with the locations of threatened species and existing protected areas. We show that priority areas for mammal conservation exhibit low overlap across the three dimensions, highlighting the need for an integrative approach for biodiversity conservation. Additionally, currently protected areas poorly represent the three dimensions of mammalian biodiversity. We identify areas of high conservation priority among and across the dimensions that should receive special attention for expanding the global protected area network. These high-priority areas, combined with areas of high priority for other taxonomic groups and with social, economic, and political considerations, provide a biological foundation for future conservation planning efforts

The wildland-urban interface in Poland reflects legacies of historical national borders

Context The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is an area where houses are located near wildland vegetation. As such, the WUI is a focal area of wildfire risk, human-wildlife conflicts, and other human-nature interactions. Although there is a wide consensus on the impact WUI existence might have, little is known about the WUI spatial determinants over long periods, especially in countries with long settlement history. Objectives Our goal here was to map the WUI across Poland, and to quantify the extent to which historical legacies shape current WUI pattern, since Poland is one of the countries, which experienced substantial political changes over time, which had an impact on historical settlement development. Methods We analysed a database of nearly 15 million building locations and a 10-m Sentinel-2-based land cover map to produce a country-wide WUI map of Poland. Then we compared the WUI pattern among parts of Poland which belonged to different political entities in 1900s and 1930s and also among different ecoregions. Lastly, we verified the effects of the historical borders or landscape units borders on WUI patterns with a discontinuity analysis. Results We found that a substantial part of Poland is WUI, and over 60% of all buildings are in WUI. However, WUI patterns differ considerably across the country, and WUI hotspots are located around the largest metropolitan areas in central and southern part of Poland and in the Carpathians. Furthermore, WUI patterns reflect pre-1945 national borders indicating long-term legacies of past settlement patterns and urban planning approaches. Diversity among ecoregions was much less pronounced than among past political entities. Conclusions Our work shows that current WUI pattern is to large extent shaped by former political conditions, which is likely true not only in Poland, but also in many parts of Europe and elsewhere where settlement history goes back centuries

Semiparametric Regression for Spatial Data via Deep Learning

In this work, we propose a deep learning-based method to perform semiparametric regression analysis for spatially dependent data. To be specific, we use a sparsely connected deep neural network with rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation function to estimate the unknown regression function that describes the relationship between response and covariates in the presence of spatial dependence. Under some mild conditions, the estimator is proven to be consistent, and the rate of convergence is determined by three factors: (1) the architecture of neural network class, (2) the smoothness and (intrinsic) dimension of true mean function, and (3) the magnitude of spatial dependence. Our method can handle well large data set owing to the stochastic gradient descent optimization algorithm. Simulation studies on synthetic data are conducted to assess the finite sample performance, the results of which indicate that the proposed method is capable of picking up the intricate relationship between response and covariates. Finally, a real data analysis is provided to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method

Beyond the 1984 Perspective: Narrow Focus on Modern Wildfire Trends Underestimates Future Risks to Water Security

The western United States remains well below historical wildfire activity, yet misconceptions abound in the public and news media that the area burning by wildfire each year in the American West is unprecedented. We submit that short‐term records of wildfire and a disproportionate focus on recent fire trends within high‐profile science stoke these misconceptions. Furthermore, we highlight serious risks to long‐term water security (encompassing water supply, storage, and quality) that have only recently been recognized and are underestimated as the result of skewed perspectives of wildfire. Compiling several data sets, we illustrate a comprehensive history of western wildfire, demonstrate that the majority of western settlement occurred during an artificially and anomalously low period of wildfire in the twentieth century, and discuss the troubling implications the misalignment of wildfire activity and human development may have for the long‐term projections of water security. A crucial first step toward realigning public perspectives will require scientists and journalists to present recent increases in wildfire area within the context and scale of longer‐term trends. Second, proper housing development and resource management will require an appreciation for the differing western ecosystems and the flexibility to adopt varied approaches. These actions are critical for realigning public understanding of both the direct and indirect risks associated with wildfire and ensuring adequate and appropriate measures are taken as we navigate a future of increasing fire in the West

Growth of the wildland-urban interface and its spatial determinants in the Polish Carpathians

The Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) is the area where natural vegetation is close to housing and area of concern due to various negative consequences for humans and the environment including fire ignitions, landscape fragmentation and human-wildlife interactions. The WUI is a global phenomenon, and widespread in many countries but long-term WUI dynamics and the main factors causing WUI growth are unknown. Our goal was to assess WUI changes in the Polish Carpathians since the mid-19th century, based on high-resolution spatial data for 1860s, 1970s and 2013. We found that WUI covered already 30% of the study area in the 1860s but grew to cover nearly half by 2013, especially at lower elevations. Detailed analysis of WUI determinants confirmed the areas closer to regional administrative centres or located on steep slopes were more WUI-prone. Tourist trail density also fostered WUI occurrence. We conclude that in Central Europe, with a long history of human settlements and agricultural activities, WUI has been a persistent landscape feature for centuries, but increased in area in recent decades due to widespread abandonment of agricultural land combined with development of new residential areas

Climate forcing of regional fire years in the upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Background. Drivers of fire regimes vary among spatial scales, and fire history reconstructions are often limited to stand scales, making it difficult to partition effects of regional climate forcing versus individual site histories. Aims. To evaluate regional-scale historical fire regimes over 350 years, we analysed an extensive fire-scar network, spanning 240 km across the upper Great Lakes Region in North America. Methods. We estimated fire frequency, identified regionally widespread fire years (based on the fraction of fire-scarred tree samples, fire extent index (FEI), and synchronicity of fire years), and evaluated fire seasonality and climate-fire relationships. Key results. Historically, fire frequency and seasonality were variable within and among Great Lakes' ecoregions. Climate forcing at regional scales resulted in synchronised fires, primarily during the late growing season, which were ubiquitous across the upper Great Lakes Region. Regionally significant fire years included 1689, 1752, 1754, 1791, and 1891. Conclusions. We found significant climate forcing of region-wide fire regimes in the upper Great Lakes Region. Implications. Historically, reoccurring fires in the upper Great Lakes Region were instrumental for shaping and maintaining forest resilience. The climate conditions that helped promote widespread fire years historically may be consistent with anticipated climate-fire interactions due to climate change

Using the Landsat data archive to assess long-term regional forest dynamics assessment in Eastern Europe, 1985-2012

Abstract. Dramatic political and economic changes in Eastern European countries following the dissolution of the “Eastern Bloc” and the collapse of the Soviet Union greatly affected land-cover and land-use trends. In particular, changes in forest cover dynamics may be attributed to the collapse of the planned economy, agricultural land abandonment, economy liberalization, and market conditions. However, changes in forest cover are hard to quantify given inconsistent forest statistics collected by different countries over the last 30 years. The objective of our research was to consistently quantify forest cover change across Eastern Europe from 1985 until 2012 using the complete Landsat data archive. We developed an algorithm for processing imagery from different Landsat platforms and sensors (TM and ETM+), aggregating these images into a common set of multi-temporal metrics, and mapping annual gross forest cover loss and decadal gross forest cover gain. Our results show that forest cover area increased from 1985 to 2012 by 4.7% across the region. Average annual gross forest cover loss was 0.41% of total forest cover area, with a statistically significant increase from 1985 to 2012. Most forest disturbance recovered fast, with only 12% of the areas of forest loss prior to 1995 not being recovered by 2012. Timber harvesting was the main cause of forest loss. Logging area declined after the collapse of socialism in the late 1980s, increased in the early 2000s, and decreased in most countries after 2007 due to the global economic crisis. By 2012, Central and Baltic Eastern European countries showed higher logging rates compared to their Western neighbours. Comparing our results with official forest cover and change estimates showed agreement in total forest area for year 2010, but with substantial disagreement between Landsat-based and official net forest cover area change. Landsat-based logging areas exhibit strong relationship with reported roundwood production at national scale. Our results allow national and sub-national level analysis of forest cover extent, change, and logging intensity and are available on-line as a baseline for further analyses of forest dynamics and its drivers

Key Areas For Conserving United States\u27 Biodiversity Likely Threatened By Future Land Use Change

A major challenge for biodiversity conservation is to mitigate the effects of future environmental change, such as land use, in important areas for biodiversity conservation. In the United States, recent conservation efforts by The Nature Conservancy and partners have identified and mapped the nation\u27s Areas of Biodiversity Significance (ABS), representing the best remaining habitats for the full diversity of native species and ecosystems, and thus the most important and suitable areas for the conservation of native biodiversity. Our goal was to understand the potential consequences of future land use changes on the nation\u27s ABS, and identify regions where ABS are likely to be threatened due to future land use expansion. For this, we used an econometric-based model to forecast land use changes between 2001 and 2051 across the conterminous U. S. under alternative scenarios of future land use change. Our model predicted a total of similar to 100,000 to 160,000 km(2) of natural habitats within ABS replaced by urban, crop and pasture expansion depending on the scenario (5% to 8% habitat loss across the conterminous U.S.), with some regions experiencing up to 30% habitat loss. The majority of the most threatened ABS were located in the Eastern half of the country. Results for our different scenarios were generally fairly consistent, but some regions exhibited notable difference from the baseline under specific policies and changes in commodity prices. Overall, our study suggests that key areas for conserving United States\u27 biodiversity are likely threatened by future land use change, and efforts trying to preserve the ecological and conservation values of ABS will need to address the potential intensification of human land uses

Long-term agricultural land-cover change and potential for cropland expansion in the former Virgin Lands area of Kazakhstan

During the Soviet Virgin Lands Campaign, approximately 23 million hectares (Mha) of Eurasian steppe grassland were converted into cropland in Northern Kazakhstan from 1954 to 1963. As a result Kazakhstan became an important breadbasket of the former Soviet Union. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered widespread agricultural abandonment, and much cropland reverted to grasslands. Our goal in this study was to reconstruct and analyze agricultural land-cover change since the eve of the Virgin Lands Campaign, from 1953 to 2010 in Kostanay Province, a region that is representative of Northern Kazakhstan. Further, we assessed the potential of currently idle cropland for re-cultivation. We reconstructed the cropland extent before and after the Virgin Lands Campaign using archival maps, and we mapped the agricultural land cover in the late Soviet and post-Soviet period using multi-seasonal Landsat TM/ETM+ images from circa 1990, 2000 and 2010. Cropland extent peaked at approximately 3.1 Mha in our study area in 1990, 38% of which had been converted from grasslands from 1954 to 1961. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, 45% of the Soviet cropland was abandoned and had reverted to grassland by 2000. After 2000, cropland contraction and re-cultivation were balanced. Using spatial logistic regressions we found that cropland expansion during the Virgin Lands Campaign was significantly associated with favorable agro-environmental conditions. In contrast, cropland expansion after the Campaign until 1990, as well as cropland contraction after 1990, occurred mainly in areas that were less favorable for agriculture. Cropland re-cultivation after 2000 was occurring on lands with relatively favorable agro-environmental conditions in comparison to remaining idle croplands, albeit with much lower agro-environmental endowment compared to stable croplands from 1990 to 2010. In sum, we found that cropland production potentials of the currently uncultivated areas are much lower than commonly believed, and further cropland expansion is only possible at the expense of marginal lands. Our results suggest if increasing production is a goal, improving crop yields in currently cultivated lands should be a focus, whereas extensive livestock grazing as well as the conservation of non-provisioning ecosystem services and biodiversity should be priority on more marginal lands.Peer Reviewe