Pass-through of Exchange Rates and Competition Between Floaters and Fixers

This paper studies how a rise in China's share of U.S. imports could lower pass-through of exchange rates to U.S. import prices. We develop a theoretical model with variable markups showing that the presence of exports from a country with a fixed exchange rate could alter the competitive environment in the U.S. market. In particular, this encourages exporters from other countries to lower markups in response to a U.S. depreciation, thereby moderating the pass-through to import prices. Free entry is found to further moderate the pass-through, in that a U.S. depreciation encourages entry of exporters whose costs are shielded by the fixed exchange rate, which further intensifies the competitive pressure on other exporters. The model predicts that certain conditions are necessary to facilitate this 'China explanation' for falling pass-through, including a 'North America bias' in U.S. preferences. The model also produces a log-linear structural equation for pass-through regressions indicating how to include the China share. Panel regressions over 1993–1999 support the prediction that a high China share in imports lowers pass-through to U.S. import prices.

AE, D ST and their SuperMAG Counterparts : the effect of improved spatial resolution in geomagnetic indices

For decades, geomagnetic indices have been used extensively to parameterize space weather events, as input to various models and as space weather specifications. The auroral electrojet (AE) index and disturbance storm time index (DST) are two such indices that span multiple solar cycles and have been widely studied. The production of improved spatial coverage analogs to AE and DST is now possible using the SuperMAG collaboration of ground‐based magnetometers. SME is an electrojet index that shares methodology with AE. SMR is a ring current index that shares methodology with DST. As the number of magnetometer stations in the SuperMAG network increases over time, so does the spatial resolution of SME and SMR. Our statistical comparison between the established indices and their new SuperMAG counterparts finds that, for large excursions in geomagnetic activity, AE systematically underestimates SME for later cycles. The difference between distributions of recorded AE and SME values for a single solar maximum can be of the same order as changes in activity seen from one solar cycle to the next. We demonstrate that DST and SMR track each other but are subject to an approximate linear shift as a result of the procedure used to map stations to the magnetic equator. We explain the observed differences between AE and SME with the assistance of a simple model, based on the construction methodology of the electrojet indices. We show that in the case of AE and SME, it is not possible to simply translate between the two indices

Simultaneous measurements of particulate and gas-phase water-soluble organic carbon concentrations at remote and urban-influenced locations

The sources, sinks, and overall importance of watersoluble organic carbon (WSOC) in the atmosphere are not well understood. Although the primary historical focus has been on particulate WSOC (WSOCP), here we also present results obtained using a newly developed technique that additionally measures gas-phase water-soluble organic carbon (WSOCG). These first-of-their-kind measurements show that WSOCG can often be more than ten times larger than WSOCP at both urban and remote locations. The average fraction of WSOC residing in the gas phase (fg = WSOCG/(WSOCG + WSOCP)) at five various field sites ranged from 0.64 to 0.93, implying significant differences in WSOC phase partitioning between locations. At Houston, TX, and Summit, Greenland, a repeatable diurnal pattern was observed, with minimum values for fg occurring at night. These trends likely are due, at least in part, to temperature and/or relative humidity related gas-to-particle partitioning. These coincident measurements of WSOC in both the gas and particle phases indicate that a relatively large reservoir of water-soluble organic mass is not taken into account by measurements focused only on WSOCP. In addition, a significant amount of WSOCG is available to form WSOCP or enter cloud droplets depending on the chemical and physical properties of the droplets and/or aerosols present. Citation: Anderson, C., J. E. Dibb, R. J. Griffin, and M. H. Bergin (2008), Simultaneous measurements of particulate and gas-phase water-soluble organic carbon concentrations at remote and urban-influenced locations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L13706, doi:10.1029/2008GL033966

A developmental investigation of the relationship between appraisals and peer self-esteem in children experiencing peer-aggression

Transactional models of stress and coping emphasize the role played by cognitive appraisals in determining psychological adjustment (Lazarus, 1999). This proposition has been supported by research examining young people's adjustment in relation to family conflict and break-up (Grych et al., 1992). Furthermore, this literature suggests that there is a change in the relationship between appraisals and adjustment at around 10 years of age: specificity of appraisal type (e.g. threat, blame) becomes relevant to outcome after 10 years, whereas before 10 there are either no effects of appraisal on adjustment or a diffuse effect of 'negative' appraisals more generally (Jouriles et al., 2000). However, it is currently unclear whether this developmental progression can be generalized from familial- to social-stressors experienced by children and young people. The current study therefore evaluates the model within the context of a commonly experienced social childhood stressor: peer-aggression

Radionuclide Ionization in Protoplanetary Disks: Calculations of Decay Product Radiative Transfer

We present simple analytic solutions for the ionization rate $\zeta_{\rm{SLR}}$ arising from the decay of short-lived radionuclides (SLRs) within protoplanetary disks. We solve the radiative transfer problem for the decay products within the disk, and thereby allow for the loss of radiation at low disk surface densities; energy loss becomes important outside $R\gtrsim30$ for typical disk masses $M_g=0.04$ M$_\odot$. Previous studies of chemistry/physics in these disks have neglected the impact of ionization by SLRs, and often consider only cosmic rays (CRs), because of the high CR-rate present in the ISM. However, recent work suggests that the flux of CRs present in the circumstellar environment could be substantially reduced by relatively modest stellar winds, resulting in severely modulated CR ionization rates, $\zeta_{\rm{CR}}$, equal to or substantially below that of SLRs ($\zeta_{\rm{SLR}}\lesssim10^{-18}$ s$^{-1}$). We compute the net ionizing particle fluxes and corresponding ionization rates as a function of position within the disk for a variety of disk models. The resulting expressions are especially simple for the case of vertically gaussian disks (frequently assumed in the literature). Finally, we provide a power-law fit to the ionization rate in the midplane as a function of gas disk surface density and time. Depending on location in the disk, the ionization rates by SLRs are typically in the range $\zeta_{\rm{SLR}}\sim(1-10)\times10^{-19}$ s$^{-1}$.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted to Ap

Outsourcing and Volatility

While outsourcing of production from the U.S. to Mexico has been hailed in Mexico as a valuable engine of growth, recently there have been misgivings regarding its fickleness and volatility. This paper is among the first in the trade literature to study the second moment properties of outsourcing. We begin by documenting a new stylized fact: the maquiladora outsourcing industries in Mexico experience fluctuations in value added that are roughly twice as volatile as the corresponding industries in the U.S. A difference-in-difference method is extended to second moments to verify the statistical significance of this finding. We then develop a stochastic model of outsourcing with heterogeneous firms that can explain this volatility. The model employs two novel mechanisms: an extensive margin in outsourcing which responds endogenously to transmit shocks internationally, and translog preferences which modulate firm entry.

Water: from clouds to planets

Results from recent space missions, in particular Spitzer and Herschel, have lead to significant progress in our understanding of the formation and transport of water from clouds to disks, planetesimals, and planets. In this review, we provide the underpinnings for the basic molecular physics and chemistry of water and outline these advances in the context of water formation in space, its transport to a forming disk, its evolution in the disk, and finally the delivery to forming terrestrial worlds and accretion by gas giants. Throughout, we pay close attention to the disposition of water as vapor or solid and whether it might be subject to processing at any stage. The context of the water in the solar system and the isotopic ratios (D/H) in various bodies are discussed as grounding data point for this evolution. Additional advances include growing knowledge of the composition of atmospheres of extra-solar gas giants, which may be influenced by the variable phases of water in the protoplanetary disk. Further, the architecture of extra-solar systems leaves strong hints of dynamical interactions, which are important for the delivery of water and subsequent evolution of planetary systems. We conclude with an exploration of water on Earth and note that all of the processes and key parameters identified here should also hold for exoplanetary systems.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures; updated exoplanet observations references. Accepted for publication as a chapter in Protostars and Planets VI, University of Arizona Press (2014), eds. H. Beuther, R. Klessen, C. Dullemond, Th. Hennin

Predictability of refraction following immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) performed under general anesthesia

Abstract Background: To evaluate the predictability of refraction following immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) performed under general anaesthesia. Methods: This is a retrospective review of all ISBCS performed at Kantonsspital Winterthur, Switzerland, between April 2000 and September 2013. The case notes of 250 patients were reviewed. Patients having full refraction reported (110 patients/220 eyes) were included. 210 (95 %) eyes had a straight forward phacoemulsification with posterior chamber intraocular lens implantation, seven eyes had a planned extracapsular cataract extraction (ECCE); three eyes had an intracapsular cataract extraction. Results: Both eyes of 110 patients (64 women, 46 men) with a mean age of 79.0 years, standard deviation (SD) ±11.4 (range 26 to 97 years) were included. Median preoperative best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 0.5 LogMAR in the first eye, the interquartile range (IQR) was [0.4, 1.2]; 0.7 LogMAR in the second eye with IQR [0.4, 1.8]. At one month, the median BCVA was 0.2 LogMAR, IQR [0.1, 0.3] in the first eye, median BCVA was 0.1 LogMAR and IQR [0.0, 0.5] in the second eye. There were 3 eyes (3 %) that lost 3 lines or more in BCVA at one month (control vs. pre-operatively). In all three cases, poor visual acuity had been recorded pre-operatively (>1 LogMAR). Achieved refraction was within ±1.0 D of the target in 83 % of eyes. There were only 5 % (n = 6) of cases where if delayed sequential bilateral extraction had been performed could potentially intraocular lens (IOL) choice have been adjusted, in four of these cases, target refraction was within ±1.0 D in the second eye. Conclusions: ISBCS performed under general anaesthesia achieves target refraction in 83 % of eyes after consideration of complications, ocular co-morbidities and systemic restrictions. In the majority of cases where IOL power calculation could be considered, the achieved refraction of the second surgical eye was within ±1.0 D of intended refraction. This undermines the utility of IOL power adjustments in the second surgical eye. Keywords: Cataract, Cataract surgery, Immediate sequential bilateral cataract surger