Selection of provenances to adapt tropical pine forestry to climate change on the basis of climate analogs

Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii play an important role in the forestry sector in the tropics and subtropics and, in recent decades, members of the International Tree Breeding and Conservation Program (Camcore) at North Carolina State University have established large, multi-site provenance trials for these pine species. The data collected in these trials provide valuable information about species and provenance choice for plantation establishment in many regions with different climates. Since climate is changing rapidly, it may become increasingly difficult to choose the right species and provenance to plant. In this study, growth performance of plantings in Colombia, Brazil and South Africa was correlated to the degree of climatic dissimilarity between planting sites. Results are used to assess the suitability of seed material under a changing climate for four P. patula provenances and six P. tecunumanii provenances. For each provenance, climate dissimilarities based on standardized Euclidean distances were calculated and statistically related to growth performances. We evaluated the two methods of quantifying climate dissimilarity with extensive field data based on the goodness of fit and statistical significance of the climate distance relation to differences in height growth. The best method was then used as a predictor of a provenance change in height growth. The provenance-specific models were used to predict provenance performance under different climate change scenarios. The developed provenance-specific models were able to significantly relate climate similarity to different growth performances for five out of six P. tecunumanii provenances. For P. patula provenances, we did not find any correlation. Results point towards the importance of the identification of sites with stable climates where high yields are achievable. In such sites, fast-growing P. tecunumanii provenances with a high but narrow growth optimum can be planted. At sites with climate change of uncertain direction and magnitude, the choice of P. patula provenances, with greater tolerance towards different temperature and precipitation regimes, is recommended. Our results indicate that the analysis of provenance trial data with climate similarity models helps us to (1) maintain plantation productivity in a rapidly changing environment; and (2) improve our understanding of tree species’ adaptation to a changing climate

Suitability of key Central American agroforestry species under future climates: an Atlas.

This atlas provides habitat suitability maps for 54 species that are widely used in Central America for shade in coffee or cocoa agroforestry systems. The 54 species represent 24 fruit species, 24 timber species and 6 species used for soil fertility improvement. Suitability maps correspond to the baseline climate (1960-1990) and 2050 climates predicted for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Habitat was classified as suitable in future climates if a minimum of 12 out of 17 downscaled Global Circulation Models predicted suitable climates. Details of the methodology of ensemble suitability modelling with the BiodiversityR package are provided in the atlas. The atlas was developed to support climate change oriented initiatives for diversification and conservation of forest genetic resources across Central America. Farmers, scientists and technicians can use the atlas to identify suitable and vulnerable areas for shade species and develop strategies for climate change adaptation. This work has been possible by the financial support of the CGIAR research program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA; supported by the CGIAR Fund Donors); the CGIAR research program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS; supported by the CGIAR Fund Donors) and HIVOS. The authors of this atlas are scientists of Bioversity International, CATIE and the World Agroforestry Centre

Prognostic value of serial score measurements of the national early warning score, the quick sequential organ failure assessment and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome to predict clinical outcome in early sepsis

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Sepsis is a common and potentially lethal syndrome, and early recognition is critical to prevent deterioration. Yet, currently available scores to facilitate recognition of sepsis lack prognostic accuracy. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal time-point to determine NEWS, qSOFA and SIRS for the prediction of clinical deterioration in early sepsis and to determine whether the change in these scores over time improves their prognostic accuracy. DESIGN: Post hoc analysis of prospectively collected data. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: This study was performed in the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary-care teaching hospital. Adult medical patients with (potential) sepsis were included. OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS: The primary outcome was clinical deterioration within 72 h after admission, defined as organ failure development, the composite outcome of ICU-admission and death. Secondary outcomes were the composite of ICU-admission/death and a rise in SOFA at least 2. Scores were calculated at the ED with 30-min intervals. ROC analyses were constructed to compare the prognostic accuracy of the scores. RESULTS: In total, 1750 patients were included, of which 360 (20.6%) deteriorated and 79 (4.5%) went to the ICU or died within 72 h. The NEWS at triage (AUC, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.59-0.65) had a higher accuracy than qSOFA (AUC, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63) and SIRS (AUC, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63) for predicting deterioration. The AUC of the NEWS at 1 h (0.65; 95% CI, 0.63-0.69) and 150 min after triage (0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.68) was higher than the AUC of the NEWS at triage. The qSOFA had the highest AUC at 90 min after triage (0.62; 95% CI, 0.58-0.65), whereas the SIRS had the highest AUC at 60 min after triage (0.60; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63); both are not significantly different from triage. The NEWS had a better accuracy to predict ICU-admission/death <72 h compared with qSOFA (AUC difference, 0.092) and SIRS (AUC difference, 0.137). No differences were found for the prediction of a rise in SOFA at least 2 within 72 h between the scores. Patients with the largest improvement in any of the scores were more prone to deteriorate. CONCLUSION: NEWS had a higher prognostic accuracy to predict deterioration compared with SIRS and qSOFA; the highest accuracy was reached at 1 h after triage

Unhealthy diet in schizophrenia spectrum disorders

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The high mortality and prevalence of metabolic syndrome in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) is maintained by poor diet. This narrative review summarizes recent literature to provide a reflection of current eating habits, dietary preferences, and nutritional status of SSD patients. Elucidating these factors provides new insights for potential lifestyle treatment strategies for SSD. RECENT FINDINGS: Only 10.7% of the SSD patients had a healthy dietary pattern, against 23% of the general population. The dietic component of the Keeping the Body in Mind Xtend lifestyle program increased diet quality with 10% for young people with first-episode psychosis, compared to baseline, which was predominantly driven by increased vegetable variety and amounts. SUMMARY: Recent findings render poor dietary habits as potential targets for treatment of SSD patients. Further studies into anti-inflammatory diets and associations with gut-brain biomarkers are warranted. When proven, structured and supervised diet interventions may help SSD patients escape from this entrapment, as only supplementing nutrients or providing dietary advice lacks the impact to significantly reduce the risk of chronic physical illnesses

Tree genetic resources at risk in South America: A spatial threat assessment to prioritize populations for conservation

Background Humans threat the populations of tree species by overexploitation, deforestation, land use change, and climate change. We present a novel threat assessment at intraspecific level to support the conservation of genetic resources of 80 socioeconomically viable tree species in South America. In this assessment, we evaluate the threat status of Ecogeographic Range Segments (ERSs). ERSs are groups of populations of a specific species in a certain ecological zone of a particular grid cell of a species’ geographic occupancy. Methods We used species location records to determine the species distributions and species‐specific ERSs. We distinguished eight threat situations to assess the risk of extirpation of the ERSs of all 80 species. These threat situations were determined by large or little tree cover, low or high human pressure, and low or high climate change impact. Available layers of tree cover and threats were used to determine the levels of fragmentation and direct human pressure. Maxent niche modelling with two Global Circulation Models helped determining climate change impact by the 2050s. Results When all 80 species are considered, in total, 59% of the ERSs are threatened by little tree cover or high human pressure. When climate change is also considered, then 71‐73% of the ERSs are threatened. When an increased risk of extirpation of populations outside protected areas is considered, then 84–86% of the ERSs are threatened. Seven species warrant special attention because all their ERSs are threatened across their whole distribution in South America: Balfourondendron riedelianum, Cariniana legalis, Dalbergia nigra, Handroanthus pulcherrimus, Pachira quintana, Prosopis flexuosa, and Prosopis pallida. Conclusions Our results confirm the urgency to set up a regional action plan for the conservation of tree genetic resources in South America. With this threat assessment, we aim to support governments and organizations who are taking up this task

Viral causes of severe acute respiratory infection in hospitalized children and association with outcomes:A two-year prospective surveillance study in Suriname

BackgroundViruses are the most frequent cause of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in children. It is currently unknown whether presence of a virus, the number of viruses, or type of virus, are associated with clinical outcomes of pediatric SARI in developing countries.MethodsBetween 2012 and 2014 nasopharyngeal swabs and demographic and clinical variables were prospectively collected for surveillance of viral causes of SARI in Surinamese children within 48 hours after hospitalization. These swabs were tested for 18 respiratory viruses using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) panel to identify the specific viral causes of SARI, unknown to the treating physicians. In post hoc analyses we evaluated if the PCR results, and demographic and clinical characteristics, were associated with course of disease, duration of respiratory support, and length of stay (LOS).ResultsOf a total of 316 analyzed children, 290 (92%) had one or more viruses. Rhinovirus/enterovirus (43%) and respiratory syncytial virus (34%) were most prevalent. Course of disease was mild in 234 (74%), moderate in 68 (22%), and severe in 14 (4%) children. Neither presence of a single virus, multiple viruses, or the type of virus, were different between groups. Prematurity and lower weight-for-age-z-score were independent predictors of a severe course of disease, longer duration of respiratory support, and longer LOS.ConclusionsViruses are common causes of pediatric SARI in Suriname, yet not necessarily associated with clinical outcomes. In developing countries, demographic and clinical variables can help to identify children at-risk for worse outcome, while PCR testing may be reserved to identify specific viruses, such as influenza, in specific patient groups or during outbreaks

Requirement of respiratory support in acute bronchiolitis in infants is linked to endothelial and neutrophil activation

BACKGROUND: Evidence shows that activation of pulmonary vascular endothelium and neutrophils are involved in the pathophysiology of acute bronchiolitis. We hypothesized that levels of markers of endothelial activation and leukocyte counts are associated with requirement and duration of respiratory support. METHODS: Thirty-four infants with bronchiolitis and eight controls were included. Nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples were taken at admission. Serum levels of Angiopoietin (Ang)-1, Ang-2, sP-selectin, sE-selectin, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), and leukocyte counts were measured. For univariate analysis, bronchiolitis cases were grouped into two groups, namely those not requiring and those requiring any form of respiratory support. To control for known risk factors for poor outcome (i.e., age, prematurity, and congenital heart disease), and for days post symptom onset, linear regression analysis was performed with duration of any type of respiratory support in days. RESULTS: Ang-2 levels, Ang-2/Ang-1 ratios, sE-selectin levels, immature neutrophil count, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were higher in acute bronchiolitis versus controls. Ang-2, and NLR levels were significantly higher, and lymphocyte counts significantly lower, in infants that required respiratory support versus those that did not. Ang-2 levels (β: .32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.19-1.19) and NLR (β: .68, 95% CI: 0.17-1.19) were positive predictors for the duration of respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: Markers of endothelial and neutrophil activation are associated with respiratory support for acute bronchiolitis. Admission Ang-2 levels and NLR may be promising markers to determine requirement of respiratory support and deserve further study