A forecasting model to estimate the drop in blood supplies during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy

Objectives: To estimate the number of actually Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected blood donors applying a statistical forecasting model. Background: Following the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, a drop in blood donation has been observed. It is crucial to determine the actual number of potential SARS-CoV-2-positive donors to define the measures and ensure adequate blood supply. Methods: The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 positivity, calculated on the general population, was applied to the donor population by estimating the number of positive subjects. The calculation model was validated by the linear interpolation method. The number of blood units actually discarded based on post-donation information was also taken into account. Results: Three months after the outbreak, 5322 donors were estimated to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were therefore potentially excluded from donation. A total of units of blood components were discarded following post donation information. The estimated number of donors deceased (180) and the number of clinically recovered individuals in the same period was also considered. Conclusion: This forecasting model can be used to obtain information on blood donors' involvement during future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, especially in case of changes concerning epidemiology, incidence by age bracket and geographical distribution and also for new outbreaks of emerging viruses

A systematic review on integration mechanisms in human and animal health surveillance systems with a view to addressing global health security threats

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) targeted for elimination by mass (antifilarial) drug administration. These drugs are predominantly active against the microfilarial progeny of adult worms. New drugs or combinations are needed to improve patient therapy and to enhance the effectiveness of interventions in persistent hotspots of transmission. Several therapies and regimens are currently in (pre-)clinical testing. Clinical trial simulators (CTSs) project patient outcomes to inform the design of clinical trials but have not been widely applied to NTDs, where their resource-saving payoffs could be highly beneficial. We demonstrate the utility of CTSs using our individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO-IBM) that projects trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug. We identify key design decisions that influence the power of clinical trials, including participant eligibility criteria and post-treatment follow-up times for measuring infection indicators. We discuss how CTSs help to inform target product profiles

α-thalassaemia

Alpha-thalassaemia is inherited as an autosomal recessive disorder characterised by a microcytic hypochromic anaemia, and a clinical phenotype varying from almost asymptomatic to a lethal haemolytic anaemia

Transfusion-transmitted infections

Although the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections today is lower than ever, the supply of safe blood products remains subject to contamination with known and yet to be identified human pathogens. Only continuous improvement and implementation of donor selection, sensitive screening tests and effective inactivation procedures can ensure the elimination, or at least reduction, of the risk of acquiring transfusion transmitted infections. In addition, ongoing education and up-to-date information regarding infectious agents that are potentially transmitted via blood components is necessary to promote the reporting of adverse events, an important component of transfusion transmitted disease surveillance. Thus, the collaboration of all parties involved in transfusion medicine, including national haemovigilance systems, is crucial for protecting a secure blood product supply from known and emerging blood-borne pathogens

Pathogen reduction/inactivation of products for the treatment of bleeding disorders:what are the processes and what should we say to patients?

Patients with blood disorders (including leukaemia, platelet function disorders and coagulation factor deficiencies) or acute bleeding receive blood-derived products, such as red blood cells, platelet concentrates and plasma-derived products. Although the risk of pathogen contamination of blood products has fallen considerably over the past three decades, contamination is still a topic of concern. In order to counsel patients and obtain informed consent before transfusion, physicians are required to keep up to date with current knowledge on residual risk of pathogen transmission and methods of pathogen removal/inactivation. Here, we describe pathogens relevant to transfusion of blood products and discuss contemporary pathogen removal/inactivation procedures, as well as the potential risks associated with these products: the risk of contamination by infectious agents varies according to blood product/region, and there is a fine line between adequate inactivation and functional impairment of the product. The cost implications of implementing pathogen inactivation technology are also considered