A Stochastic Budgeting Analysis of Three Alternative Scenarios to Convert from Beef-Cattle Farming to Game Ranching

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the profitability and financial feasibility of three alternative scenarios to convert from beef-cattle farming to game ranching. The analyses acknowledge the importance of quantifying the probability of failure or success when making investment decisions. Risk is incorporated into a standard net present value analysis using risk simulation. De-trended historical auction prices of live game and on-the-hoof prices of weaner cattle were used to quantify price variability. The stochastic net present value analyses indicate that game ranching is more profitable than cattle farming. Although an investment in a limited number of common game species is financially feasible, the cash flow analysis indicates a decreasing probability of making more money with game when annual cash flows are compared to those generated by means of cattle farming. Both the high-value game species scenarios are financially unfeasible during the first five years. These infeasibilities stem from a high probability of not covering instalments to finance game purchases, the extent to which these instalments are not covered, and the high probability of shortfalls in consecutive years.Game ranching, profitability, financial feasibility, risk simulation, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries,

Prostaglandin effects in the neuroendocrine mammalian brain

Publishers' versionThe original publication is available at http://www.samj.org.zaVarious prostaglandins (PGs) have been found in several areas of the brain. PGs of the E series have been found in the pituitary and pineal glands and the median eminence, and they have been shown to influence hypothalamic endocrine-release characteristics and release of melatonin from the pineal gland. It has been suggested that they may act, along with membrane phospholipids, as a link between neuronal depolarization, calcium uptake and neurotransmitter release. They may also influence postsynaptic effects of neurotransmitters. These latter effects may be due to interaction with membrane phospholipid- and cyclic nucleotide-induced changes of specific protein kinases. The PGs may act as intracellular mediators of neuro-endocrine control.Publishers' versio

The development of a scale for measuring voluntary simplistic clothing consumption in the South African emerging market context

This study\u27s purpose was to develop a scale to enable investigation of voluntary simplistic clothing consumption in the South African emerging market context. Initial scale generation, purification, and subsequent validation procedures were followed. A pool of 22 items was included in a structured, self-administered questionnaire that was distributed among respondents from various gender, ethnic and age groups in Gauteng. The resulting data was split randomly into two data sets with one half used for scale purification (n = 501) and the other half for scale validation (n = 501). Purification procedures involved scrutiny of corrected item-total correlations and subsequent exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Further confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) produced a three-factor solution based on 12 items that parsimoniously represented three dimensions of voluntary simplistic consumption practices namely, supporting local, ethical clothing brands, preferring unique, handcrafted clothing and reducing clothing consumption. This factor solution was re-confirmed through subsequent CFA procedures

Accommodating quality and service improvement research within existing ethical principles

Funds were provided by a Canadian Institute of Health Research grant (Nominated PI: Monica Taljaard, PJT – 153045). Funds were also generously provided by Charles Weijer, who is funded by a Tier 1 Canadian Research Chair.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Impact of CONSORT extension for cluster randomised trials on quality of reporting and study methodology : review of random sample of 300 trials, 2000-8

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Inadequate reporting of research ethics review and informed consent in cluster randomized trials : review of random sample of published trials

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Special Article: The South African Pilot Hospital Accreditation Progranune Part II. The developtnent of standards

No Abstract

A severity-of-illness score in patients with tuberculosis requiring intensive care

Background. We previously retrospectively validated a 6-point severity-of-illness score aimed at identifying patients at risk of dying of tuberculosis (TB) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Parameters included septic shock, HIV infection with a CD4 count <200 cells/µL, renal dysfunction, a ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen (P/F) <200 mmHg, a chest radiograph demonstrating diffuse parenchymal infiltrates, and no TB treatment on admission.Objectives. To prospectively validate the severity-of-illness scoring system in patients with TB requiring intensive care, and to refine and simplify the score in order to expand its clinical utility.Methods. We performed a prospective observational study with a planned post hoc retrospective analysis, enrolling all adult patients with confirmed TB admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, from 1 February 2015 to 31 July 2018. The admission data of all adult patients with TB requiring admission to the ICU were used to calculate the 6-point severity-of-illness score and a refined 4-point score (based on the planned post hoc analysis). Descriptive statistics and χ2 or Fisher’s exact tests (where indicated) were performed on dichotomous categorical variables, and t-tests on continuous data. Patients were categorised as hospital survivors or non-survivors.Results. Forty-one of 78 patients (52.6%) died. The 6-point scores of non-survivors were higher than those of survivors (mean (standard deviation (SD)) 3.5 (1.3) v. 2.7 (1.2); p=0.01). A score ≥3 v. <3 was associated with increased mortality (64.0% v. 32.1%; odds ratio (OR) 3.75; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25 - 10.01; p=0.01). Post hoc, a P/F ratio <200 mmHg and no TB treatment on admission failed to predict mortality, whereas any immunosuppression did. A revised 4-point score (septic shock, any immunosuppression, acute kidney injury and lack of lobar consolidation) demonstrated higher scores in non-survivors than survivors (mean (SD) 2.8 (1.1) v. 1.6 (1.1); p<0.001). A score ≥3 v. ≤2 was associated with increased mortality (78.4% v. 29.3%; OR 8.76; 95% CI 3.12 - 24.59; p<0.001).Conclusions. The 6-point severity-of-illness score identified patients at increased risk of death. We were able to derive and retrospectively validate a simplified 4-point score with superior predictive power