FINITE SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF NONSTATIONARY BINARY RESPONSE MODELS: A MONTE CARLO AND RESPONSE SURFACE ANALYSIS

This paper investigates the finite sample distributions of maximum likelihood estimators for nonstationary probit models. We find that, analogous to standard OLS models, commonly used tests statistics almost always reject the null hypothesis of no relationship between xt and a latent yt, even when they are, in fact, generated by independent random walks. However, if cointegrating relationships are present in the model, parameter distributions are better behaved and standard z and Wald test statistics are consistent.Binary choice, Probit models, Nonstationay processes, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C250,

SIMULATED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD FOR DOUBLE-BOUNDED REFERENDUM MODELS

Although joint estimation of referendum-type contingent value (CV) survey responses using maximum-likelihood models is preferred to single-equation estimation, it has been largely disregarded because estimation involves evaluating multivariate normal probabilities. New developments in the construction of probability simulators have addressed this problem, and simulated maximum likelihood (SML) for multiple-good models is now possible. This analysis applies SML for a three-good model under a double-bounded questioning format. Results indicate joint estimation substantially improves the variances of the parameters and willingness-to-pay estimates.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

OPTION WEALTH AND BEQUEST VALUES: THE VALUE OF PROTECTING FUTURE GENERATIONS FROM THE HEALTH RISKS OF NUCLEAR WASTE STORAGE

We devise a simple model of intergenerational altruism under uncertainty. We present an estimable form of the model that relies on a few, plausible, assumptions. We apply the model to data collected in a survey of Southern Nevadans concerning the proposed Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository in Nye County, NV. We find strong evidence of a bequest motive. Approximately one third of the option wealth lost by households near the repository can be attributed to costs to future generations.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

An Analysis of Factors that Influence Air Force Civil Engineer Company Grade Officer Turnover Intentions

Increased operational pace in support of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined with a reduction in the number of service members, has required military members to work longer and harder. Civil engineer company grade officers are among the most heavily deployed members of the Air Force. Because of this, Air Force leaders are concerned that they will encounter retention challenges with these members. To address this issue, a questionnaire designed to capture several key attitudes individuals have about the Air Force and the civil engineer career field was administered to 364 Air Force civil engineer company grade officers. Results of this study indicated that job satisfaction, organizational commitment, availability of alternatives, perceived organizational support, operations tempo, interrole conflict, and non-work satisfaction were significantly correlated with turnover intentions. Additionally, as suggested by some of the seminal and contemporary models of employee turnover, job satisfaction and organizational commitment were shown to mediate the relationship between these attitudinal variables and an individual’s intent to leave the Air Force. Theoretical and practical implications, as well as recommendations for future research, are discussed

Dyslexia-friendly schools and parent partnership: inclusion and home-school relationships

This is a postprint of an article whose final and definitive form has been published in the European Journal of Special Needs Education© 2005 Copyright Taylor & Francis; European Journal of Special Needs Education is available online at http://www.informaworld.comThis paper summarizes an action research project in five local areas in the south-west of England which aimed to support parents of children with dyslexic difficulties who were experiencing problems in obtaining appropriate provision in mainstream schools. It was based on the importance of effective parental partnership and quality inclusive practice for children having dyslexic difficulties. A development officer worked over two years in the five participating LEAs that were selected to represent a range of professional practice with a mix of urban and rural populations. As part of the evaluation, the authors also examined longitudinally the educational experiences of a sample of parents. The paper includes a conceptual framework of parental agency in this field in terms of knowledge, identity and parental strategies, and the conditions under which parents escalate their strategies to secure appropriate provision for their children. The support provided by the development officer is analysed in terms of the kinds of support requests received, the kinds of support offered and qualitative evidence of the impact of this support. This research is theorized in terms of current ideas about parent-partnership and theories about parent-teacher relations in terms of the diversity of parents. It highlights the significance of thinking about inclusive schooling and parent-school relations in terms of the interconnections between general systems for all, for those with special educational needs and those with specific difficulties. The policy and practice implications are interpreted in terms of the importance of a system of extended professionalism, which is inclusive of parents with learning difficulties and disabilities.The research project this paper summarises was funded by the British Dyslexia Association (BDA) and the Buttle Trust

Public Benefits of Undeveloped Lands on Urban Outskirts: Non-Market Valuation Studies and their Role in Land Use Plans

Over the past three decades, the economics profession has developed methods for estimating the public benefits of green spaces, providing an opportunity to incorporate such information into land-use planning. While federal regulations routinely require such estimates for major regulations, the extent to which they are used in local land use plans is not clear. This paper reviews the literature on public values for lands on urban outskirts, not just to survey their methods or empirical findings, but to evaluate the role they have played--or have the potential to play-- in actual land use plans. Based on interviews with authors and representatives of funding agencies and local land trusts, it appears that academic work has had a mixed reception in the policy world. Reasons for this include a lack of interest in making academic work accessible to policy makers, emphasizing revealed preference methods which are inconsistent with policy priorities related to nonuse values, and emphasis on benefit-cost analyses. Nevertheless, there are examples of success stories that illustrate how such information can play a vital role in the design of conservation policies. Working Paper 07-2

Is Transition Experience Enough? The Donor-side Effectiveness of Czech and Polish Democracy Aid to Georgia

The paper examines the democracy aid practices of the Czech Republic and Poland in Georgia. These two countries have recently emerged as promoters of democracy, and have argued that their own transition experience puts them in a unique position to support democratization and the consolidation of democracy in the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood. The paper evaluates how these two countries provide democracy aid to Georgia along three criteria, derived from the aid effectiveness literature: supporting locally driven change, learning from results and coordination. The results indicate that both countries have plenty of space to improve the way their democracy aid is delivered. Neither country has formal systems in place to ensure that they actually support Georgian priorities; evaluations are ad hoc and feedback loops missing; and there is significant scope to improve coordination with other donors. Nonetheless, there seems to be a general perception among stakeholders that the democracy aid provided by the Czech Republic and Poland is relevant to Georgia’s needs

Autocorrelation function of eigenstates in chaotic and mixed systems

We study the autocorrelation function of different types of eigenfunctions in quantum mechanical systems with either chaotic or mixed classical limits. We obtain an expansion of the autocorrelation function in terms of the correlation length. For localized states, like bouncing ball modes or states living on tori, a simple model using only classical input gives good agreement with the exact result. In particular, a prediction for irregular eigenfunctions in mixed systems is derived and tested. For chaotic systems, the expansion of the autocorrelation function can be used to test quantum ergodicity on different length scales.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figures. Some of the pictures are included in low resolution only. For a version with pictures in high resolution see http://www.physik.uni-ulm.de/theo/qc/ or http://www.maths.bris.ac.uk/~maab

Human papillomavirus 16 is an aetiological factor of scrotal cancer

Background: Squamous cell scrotal carcinoma (SCSC) is an infrequent skin cancer associated historically with occupational carcinogens. Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA has been associated with SCSC but there is no definitive proof of its oncogenic role. Methods: Human papillomavirus-DNA and -E6*I mRNA were analysed in six invasive histologically typed SCSC. LCM-PCR was used to localise HPV DNA to tumour cells. P16(INK4a)and p53 expression were studied by immunohistochemistry. Results: In three warty or basaloid SCSC HPV16-DNA and E6*I-mRNA were detected. LCM-PCR confirmed HPV16 was in p16(INK4a)-positive malignant cells. However, of three usual-type SCSC, all were HPV-negative and two expressed p53 protein but not p16(INK4a). Conclusions: Human papillomavirus 16 was present in tumour cells and oncogenically active in basaloid and warty SCSC, whereas usual SCSC was HPV-negative and showed immunostaining, suggesting p53 mutation. The dual pathways of oncogenesis and relation between histological type of SCSC and HPV are similar to that in penile cancers