Impacts of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on ENSO in the GEOS seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 introduced a perturbation of the Earth's global energy budget by increasing the stratospheric aerosol loading by an order of magnitude, with effects on the global climate. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System Seasonal-to Subseasonal (GEOS-S2S) system, an Earth System Model that includes an interactive ocean and a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation. We performed 10-member ensembles for the year after the eruption (June 1991-May 1992) at ~0.5 horizontal resolution, with and without the inclusion of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. In GEOS-S2S, the eruption leads to ta strengthening of El Nino peaking in January 1992. The strengthening is mainly due to the weakening of the trade winds, which is caused by a attening of the temperature gradient across the Pacic due to a differential response to the volcanic forcing between the central and eastern Pacic (ocean-dynamical thermostat). This response largely depends on the assumed size for the volcanic aerosols. Indeed, we performed simulations assuming a volcanic aerosol effective radius of 0.35 m (similar to tropospheric aerosol, and the default in GEOS) and 0.6 m (closer to observations of volcanic aerosol from Pinatubo-sized eruptions). We nd that in the latter case the tropical radiative forcing is lower, since smaller aerosols scatter shortwave radiation more eciently than larger ones. Accordingly, the impact on ENSO is not statistically signicant when a larger and more realistic particle radius is assumed

NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project: A Multi-Component Analysis System for Carbon-Cycle Research and Monitoring

The importance of greenhouse gas increases for climate motivates NASA s observing strategy for CO2 from space, including the forthcoming Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) mission. Carbon cycle monitoring, including attribution of atmospheric concentrations to regional emissions and uptake, requires a robust modeling and analysis infrastructure to optimally extract information from the observations. NASA's Carbon-Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project (FPP) is a prototype for such analysis, combining a set of unique tools to facilitate analysis of atmospheric CO2 along with fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere or ocean. NASA's analysis system is unique, in that it combines information and expertise from the land, oceanic, and atmospheric branches of the carbon cycle and includes some estimates of uncertainty. Numerous existing space-based missions provide information of relevance to the carbon cycle. This study describes the components of the FPP framework, assessing the realism of computed fluxes, thus providing the basis for research and monitoring applications. Fluxes are computed using data-constrained terrestrial biosphere models and physical ocean models, driven by atmospheric observations and assimilating ocean-color information. Use of two estimates provides a measure of uncertainty in the fluxes. Along with inventories of other emissions, these data-derived fluxes are used in transport models to assess their consistency with atmospheric CO2 observations. Closure is achieved by using a four-dimensional data assimilation (inverse) approach that adjusts the terrestrial biosphere fluxes to make them consistent with the atmospheric CO2 observations. Results will be shown, illustrating the year-to-year variations in land biospheric and oceanic fluxes computed in the FPP. The signals of these surface-flux variations on atmospheric CO2 will be isolated using forward modeling tools, which also incorporate estimates of transport error. The results will be discussed in the context of interannual variability of observed atmospheric CO2 distributions

Evaluating the impact of public housing after prison for a sex offence

This article evaluates the impact of housing assistance on the post-release pathways of people convicted of sex offences, in terms of a range of criminal justice outcomes and associated costs. Using linked administrative data from New South Wales government agencies, it compares outcomes and costs for two groups of formerly incarcerated sex offenders–one group who received public housing tenancies at some stage after their release, the other who only received private rental assistance. We find the public housing group had better criminal justice outcomes (e.g. fewer police incidents, court appearances, proven offences, days in custody and days on community-based orders) than the non-public housing group, achieved mostly at less cost to governments. The evidence, likely applicable in other jurisdictions with similar housing systems, strongly supports the increased provision of social housing to this group of ex-prisoners and, we hope, helps disarm the controversy that affects this area of policy in Australia and internationally

A realist evaluation of student use of a virtual reality smartphone application in undergraduate legal education

This paper provides a realist evaluation of the Open Justice virtual reality (VR) smartphone app, designed to develop presentation skills for students on an undergraduate legal education module. This work addresses two research questions: what proportion of students engaged with the Open Justice app, and what worked for whom in what circumstances and why? Questionnaire and interviews were conducted and analysed using a realist evaluation approach. This approach is particularly pertinent to the evaluation of how emerging educational technologies are used, as it can point to the potential affordances of a technological intervention, in addition to assessing its current use. In keeping with the realist evaluation approach, data analysis was completed using the context–mechanism–outcome framework. The findings suggest that more than half of students did not engage with the app during their studies, but this was not surprising as it was a pilot project into using VR with our students and such innovations can be difficult to manage in distance education contexts. Those who did engage with it recognised the potential of immersive VR to contribute to legal skills development, but they found the application of the technology, in this context, to be of limited use. By utilising a realist evaluation framework, this study contributes to the emerging field of programme theory‐based evaluations of educational technology, which might form the basis of further research

Enterprise Education Competitions: A Theoretically Flawed Intervention?

The demand for including enterprise in the education system, at all levels and for all pupils is now a global phenomenon. Within this context, the use of competitions and competitive learning activities is presented as a popular and effective vehicle for learning. The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate how a realist method of enquiry – which utilises theory as the unit of analysis – can shed new light on the assumed and unintended outcomes of enterprise education competitions. The case developed here is that there are inherent flaws in assuming that competitions will ‘work’ in the ways set out in policy and guidance. Some of the most prevalent stated outcomes – that competitions will motivate and reward young people, that they will enable the development of entrepreneurial skills, and that learners will be inspired by their peers – are challenged by theory from psychology and education. The issue at stake is that the expansion of enterprise education policy into primary and secondary education increases the likelihood that more learners will be sheep dipped in competitions, and competitive activities, without a clear recognition of the potential unintended effects. In this chapter, we employ a realist-informed approach to critically evaluate the theoretical basis that underpins the use of competitions and competitive learning activities in school-based enterprise education. We believe that our findings and subsequent recommendations will provide those who promote and practice the use of competitions with a richer, more sophisticated picture of the potential flaws within such activities.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Introducing EMMIE: An evidence rating scale to encourage mixed-method crime prevention synthesis reviews

Objectives This short report describes the need for, and the development of, a coding system to distil the quality and coverage of systematic reviews of the evidence relating to crime prevention interventions. The starting point for the coding system concerns the evidence needs of policymakers and practitioners. Methods The coding scheme (EMMIE) proposed builds on previous scales that have been developed to assess the probity, coverage and utility of evidence both in health and criminal justice. It also draws on the principles of realist synthesis and review. Results The proposed EMMIE scale identifies five dimensions to which systematic reviews intended to inform crime prevention should speak. These are the Effect of intervention, the identification of the causal Mechanism(s) through which interventions are intended to work, the factors that Moderate their impact, the articulation of practical Implementation issues, and the Economic costs of intervention

Exploring complex causal pathways between urban renewal, health and health inequality using a theory-driven approach

Urban populations are growing and to accommodate these numbers, cities are becoming more involved in urban renewal programs to improve the physical, social and economic conditions in different areas. This paper explores some of the complexities surrounding the link between urban renewal, health and health inequalities using a theory-driven approach. ; We focus on an urban renewal initiative implemented in Barcelona, the Neighbourhoods Law, targeting Barcelona’s (Spain) most deprived neighbourhoods. We present evidence from two studies on the health evaluation of the Neighbourhoods Law, while drawing from recent urban renewal literature, to follow a four-step process to develop a program theory. We then use two specific urban renewal interventions, the construction of a large central plaza and the repair of streets and sidewalks, to further examine this link. ; In order for urban renewal programs to affect health and health inequality, neighbours must use and adapt to the changes produced by the intervention. However, there exist barriers that can result in negative outcomes including factors such as accessibility, safety and security. ; This paper provides a different perspective to the field that is largely dominated by traditional quantitative studies that are not always able to address the complexities such interventions provide. Furthermore, the framework and discussions serve as a guide for future research, policy development and evaluation