OPTIMAL STOCKING OF RANGELAND FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION WITHIN A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK

A dynamic model is constructed and utilized to illustrate the interactions of several primary dynamic ecologic and economic relationships that are important in effective rangeland management. Within this context, the implications of various range management strategies are explored.Livestock Production/Industries,

The impact of injecting networks on hepatitis C transmission and treatment in people who inject drugs

With the development of new highly efficacious direct acting antiviral treatments (DAAs) for hepatitis C (HCV), the concept of treatment as prevention is gaining credence. To date the majority of mathematical models assume perfect mixing with injectors having equal contact with all other injectors. This paper explores how using a networks based approach to treat people who inject drugs (PWID) with DAAs affects HCV prevalence. Method: Using observational data we parameterized an Exponential Random Graph Model containing 524 nodes. We simulated transmission of HCV through this network using a discrete time, stochastic transmission model. The effect of five treatment strategies on the prevalence of HCV was investigated; two of these strategies were 1) treat randomly selected nodes and 2) “treat your friends” where an individual is chosen at random for treatment and all their infected neighbours are treated. Results: As treatment coverage increases, HCV prevalence at 10 years reduces for both the high efficacy and low efficacy treatment. Within each set of parameters, the “treat your friends” strategy performed better than the random strategy being most marked for higher efficacy treatment. For example over 10 years of treating 25 per 1000 PWID, the prevalence drops from 50% to 40% for the random strategy, and to 33% for the “treat your friends” strategy (6.5% difference, 95% CI 5.1 – 8.1%). Discussion: “Treat your friends” is a feasible means of utilising network strategies to improve treatment efficiency. In an era of highly efficacious and highly tolerable treatment such an approach will benefit not just the individual but the community more broadly by reducing the prevalence of HCV amongst PWID

Hepatitis C transmission and treatment as prevention - The role of the injecting network

Background: The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic is a major health issue; in most developed countries it is driven by people who inject drugs (PWID). Injecting networks powerfully influence HCV transmission. In this paper we provide an overview of 10 years of research into injecting networks and HCV, culminating in a network-based approach to provision of direct-acting antiviral therapy. Methods: Between 2005 and 2010 we followed a cohort of 413 PWID, measuring HCV incidence, prevalence and injecting risk, including network-related factors. We developed an individual-based HCV transmission model, using it to simulate the spread of HCV through the empirical social network of PWID. In addition, we created an empirically grounded network model of injecting relationships using exponential random graph models (ERGMs), allowing simulation of realistic networks for investigating HCV treatment and intervention strategies. Our empirical work and modelling underpins the TAP Study, which is examining the feasibility of community-based treatment of PWID with DAAs. Results: We observed incidence rates of HCV primary infection and reinfection of 12.8 per 100 person-years (PY) (95%CI: 7.7-20.0) and 28.8 per 100 PY (95%CI: 15.0-55.4), respectively, and determined that HCV transmission clusters correlated with reported injecting relationships. Transmission modelling showed that the empirical network provided some protective effect, slowing HCV transmission compared to a fully connected, homogenous PWID population. Our ERGMs revealed that treating PWID and all their contacts was the most effective strategy and targeting treatment to infected PWID with the most contacts the least effective. Conclusion: Networks-based approaches greatly increase understanding of HCV transmission and will inform the implementation of treatment as prevention using DAAs

Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave

During 2020, Victoria was the Australian state hardest hit by COVID-19, but was successful in controlling its second wave through aggressive policy interventions. We calibrated a detailed compartmental model of Victoria's second wave to multiple geographically-structured epidemic time-series indicators. We achieved a good fit overall and for individual health services through a combination of time-varying processes, including case detection, population mobility, school closures, physical distancing and face covering usage. Estimates of the risk of death in those aged ≥75 and of hospitalisation were higher than international estimates, reflecting concentration of cases in high-risk settings. We estimated significant effects for each of the calibrated time-varying processes, with estimates for the individual-level effect of physical distancing of 37.4% (95%CrI 7.2-56.4%) and of face coverings of 45.9% (95%CrI 32.9-55.6%). That the multi-faceted interventions led to the dramatic reversal in the epidemic trajectory is supported by our results, with face coverings likely particularly important

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Risk for Frontline Health Care Workers

To determine whether frontline health care workers (HCWs) are at greater risk for contracting pandemic (H1N1) 2009 than nonclinical staff, we conducted a study of 231 HCWs and 215 controls. Overall, 79 (17.7%) of 446 had a positive antibody titer by hemagglutination inhibition, with 46 (19.9%) of 231 HCWs and 33 (15.3%) of 215 controls positive (OR 1.37, 95% confidence interval 0.84–2.22). Of 87 participants who provided a second serum sample, 1 showed a 4-fold rise in antibody titer; of 45 patients who had a nose swab sample taken during a respiratory illness, 7 had positive results. Higher numbers of children in a participant’s family and working in an intensive care unit were risk factors for infection; increasing age, working at hospital 2, and wearing gloves were protective factors. This highly exposed group of frontline HCWs was no more likely to contract pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza infection than nonclinical staff, which suggests that personal protective measures were adequate in preventing transmission

Simulation of metallic nanostructures for emission of THz radiation using the lateral photo-Dember effect

A 2D simulation for the lateral photo-Dember effect is used to calculate the THz emission of metallic nanostructures due to ultrafast diffusion of carriers in order to realize a series of THz emitters.Comment: Corrected version of a paper given at 2011 36th International Conference on Infrared, Millimeter and Terahertz Waves (IRMMW-THz

Functional polymorphisms in the P2X7 receptor gene are associated with stress fracture injury

Context: Military recruits and elite athletes are susceptible to stress fracture injuries. Genetic predisposition has been postulated to have a role in their development. The P2X7 receptor (P2X7R) gene, a key regulator of bone remodelling, is a genetic candidate that may contribute to stress fracture predisposition. Objective: To evaluate the putative contribution of P2X7R to stress fracture injury in two separate cohorts, military personnel and elite athletes. Methods: In 210 Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) military conscripts, stress fracture injury was diagnosed (n=43) based on symptoms and a positive bone scan. In a separate cohort of 518 elite athletes, self-reported medical imaging scan-certified stress fracture injuries were recorded (n=125). Non-stress fracture controls were identified from these cohorts who had a normal bone scan or no history or symptoms of stress fracture injury. Study participants were genotyped for functional SNPs within the P2X7R gene using proprietary fluorescence-based competitive allele-specific PCR assay. Pearson Chi-square (χ2) tests, corrected for multiple comparisons, were used to assess associations in genotype frequencies. Results: The variant allele of P2X7R SNP rs3751143 (Glu496Ala- loss of function) was associated with stress fracture injury, while the variant allele of rs1718119 (Ala348Thr- gain of function) was associated with a reduced occurrence of stress fracture injury in military conscripts (P<0.05). The association of the variant allele of rs3751143 with stress fractures was replicated in elite athletes (P<0.05), whereas the variant allele of rs1718119 was also associated with reduced multiple stress fracture cases in elite athletes (P<0.05). Conclusions: The association between independent P2X7R polymorphisms with stress fracture prevalence supports the role of a genetic predisposition in the development of stress fracture injury