Goal-oriented sensitivity analysis for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

In this paper we propose a new class of coupling methods for the sensitivity analysis of high dimensional stochastic systems and in particular for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo. Sensitivity analysis for stochastic systems is typically based on approximating continuous derivatives with respect to model parameters by the mean value of samples from a finite difference scheme. Instead of using independent samples the proposed algorithm reduces the variance of the estimator by developing a strongly correlated-"coupled"- stochastic process for both the perturbed and unperturbed stochastic processes, defined in a common state space. The novelty of our construction is that the new coupled process depends on the targeted observables, e.g. coverage, Hamiltonian, spatial correlations, surface roughness, etc., hence we refer to the proposed method as em goal-oriented sensitivity analysis. In particular, the rates of the coupled Continuous Time Markov Chain are obtained as solutions to a goal-oriented optimization problem, depending on the observable of interest, by considering the minimization functional of the corresponding variance. We show that this functional can be used as a diagnostic tool for the design and evaluation of different classes of couplings. Furthermore the resulting KMC sensitivity algorithm has an easy implementation that is based on the Bortz-Kalos-Lebowitz algorithm's philosophy, where here events are divided in classes depending on level sets of the observable of interest. Finally, we demonstrate in several examples including adsorption, desorption and diffusion Kinetic Monte Carlo that for the same confidence interval and observable, the proposed goal-oriented algorithm can be two orders of magnitude faster than existing coupling algorithms for spatial KMC such as the Common Random Number approach

The Vanishing Engineer

"We need public understanding of the role of the engineer and the place of the engineering function as a part of the technological process.

Relational reasoning via probabilistic coupling

Probabilistic coupling is a powerful tool for analyzing pairs of probabilistic processes. Roughly, coupling two processes requires finding an appropriate witness process that models both processes in the same probability space. Couplings are powerful tools proving properties about the relation between two processes, include reasoning about convergence of distributions and stochastic dominance---a probabilistic version of a monotonicity property. While the mathematical definition of coupling looks rather complex and cumbersome to manipulate, we show that the relational program logic pRHL---the logic underlying the EasyCrypt cryptographic proof assistant---already internalizes a generalization of probabilistic coupling. With this insight, constructing couplings is no harder than constructing logical proofs. We demonstrate how to express and verify classic examples of couplings in pRHL, and we mechanically verify several couplings in EasyCrypt

Letters

Sabersky, Corcoran, and DuBridge articl

Interview with Frederick C. Lindvall

An interview in three sessions, November and December 1978, with Frederick C. Lindvall, professor of engineering, emeritus, in the Division of Engineering and Applied Science. Dr. Lindvall received his BS from the University of Illinois (1924) and his PhD from Caltech (1928). He joined the Caltech faculty in 1930 as an instructor in electrical engineering and served as chairman of the Division of Engineering and Applied Science from 1945 (when it was known as the Division of Civil and Mechanical Engineering and Aeronautics) to 1969, becoming professor emeritus in 1970. He recalls his childhood in Moline, Illinois; first two years of college at UC Southern Branch, in Los Angeles; youthful interest in railway operations; junior and senior years at University of Illinois; graduate work at Caltech with Francis Maxstadt, under Royal W. Sorensen; thesis work on vacuum switch. Comments on professors Smythe, Epstein, Bateman, Zwicky, Tolman, Judy. Origin of Sorensen’s high voltage laboratory and collaboration with Southern California Edison. Works for General Electric before joining Caltech faculty, 1930. Recalls family trip to Europe just before World War I and difficulties getting back to the States. Graduate teaching; recollections of Millikans; campus life in the 1930s; outstanding graduate students. Works on rockets and torpedoes in World War II. Caltech in wartime. Engineering division chairmanship; curriculum revision in the 1950s, new emphasis on applied science. Government support post-Sputnik. Interest in humanities. Work on Freshman Admissions Committee; travels to interview high school prospects. Trips to Soviet Union, Africa, India, to investigate engineering education. Work at Deere & Company and son’s earthquake consulting firm after his retirement

A glow discharge anemometer

A glow discharge at atmospheric pressure is responsive to air velocity, and may be used as an anemometer. The properties of such a glow are discussed in this paper, and data relating to glow current, voltage, glow length, and air velocity are presented. It is also shown that the glow discharge responds to rapid fluctuations in air velocity and is therefore a practical device for investigating turbulence. A comparison of such an anemometer with the previously used hot wire method is given

The Partisan Politics of New Social Risks in Advanced Postindustrial Democracies: Social Protection for Labor Market Outsiders

Advanced postindustrialization generates numerous challenges for the European social model. Central among these challenges is declining income, unstable employment, and inadequate training of semi- and unskilled workers. In this chapter, I assess the partisan basis of support for social policies that address the needs of these marginalized workers. I specifically consider the impacts of postindustrial cleavages among core constituencies of social democratic parties on the capacity of these parties to pursue inclusive social policies. I argue – and find support for in empirical analyses – that encompassing labor organization is the most important factor in strengthening the ability of left parties to build successful coalitions in support of outsider-friendly policies. I go beyond existing work on the topic by considering the full array of postindustrial cleavages facing left parties, by more fully elaborating why encompassing labor organization is crucial, and by considering a more complete set of measures of outsider policies than extant work. I compare my arguments and findings to important new work that stresses coalition building and partisan politics but minimizes the role of class organization

Architectural Analysis of Complex Evolving Systems of Systems

The goal of this collaborative project between FC-MD, APL, and GSFC and supported by NASA IV&V Software Assurance Research Program (SARP), was to develop a tool, Dynamic SAVE, or Dyn-SAVE for short, for analyzing architectures of systems of systems. The project team was comprised of the principal investigator (PI) from FC-MD and four other FC-MD scientists (part time) and several FC-MD students (full time), as well as, two APL software architects (part time), and one NASA POC (part time). The PI and FC-MD scientists together with APL architects were responsible for requirements analysis, and for applying and evaluating the Dyn-SAVE tool and method. The PI and a group of FC-MD scientists were responsible for improving the method and conducting outreach activities, while another group of FC-MD scientists were responsible for development and improvement of the tool. Oversight and reporting was conducted by the PI and NASA POC. The project team produced many results including several prototypes of the Dyn-SAVE tool and method, several case studies documenting how the tool and method was applied to APL s software systems, and several published papers in highly respected conferences and journals. Dyn-SAVE as developed and enhanced throughout this research period, is a software tool intended for software developers and architects, software integration testers, and persons who need to analyze software systems from the point of view of how it communicates with other systems. Using the tool, the user specifies the planned communication behavior of the system modeled as a sequence diagram. The user then captures and imports the actual communication behavior of the system, which is then converted and visualized as a sequence diagram by Dyn-SAVE. After mapping the planned to the actual and specifying parameter and timing constraints, Dyn-SAVE detects and highlights deviations between the planned and the actual behavior. Requirements based on the need to analyze two inter-system communication protocols that are representative of protocols used in the Aerospace industry have been specified. The protocols are related: APL s Common Ground System (CGS) as used in the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) and the Radiation Belt Space Probes (RBSP) missions. The analyzed communications were implementations of the Telemetry protocol and the CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) protocol. Based on these requirements, three prototypes of Dyn-SAVE were developed and applied to these protocols. The application of Dyn-SAVE to these protocols resulted in the detection of several issues. Dyn-SAVE was also applied to several Testbeds that have previously been used for experimentation earlier on this project, as well as, to other protocols and logs for testing its broader applicability. For example, Dyn-SAVE was used to analyze 1) the communication pattern between a web browser and a web server, 2) the system log of a computer in order to detect offnominal computer shut-down behavior, and 3) the actual test cases of NASA Goddard s Core Flight System (CFS) and automatically generated test cases in order to determine the overlap between the two sets of test cases. In all cases, Dyn-SAVE assisted in providing insightful conclusions about each of the cases identified above

Evidence for prehistoric earthquakes on the Superstition Hills fault from offset geomorphic features

Offset geomorphic features along the Superstition Hills fault show evidence for at least one slip event prior to the 1987 surface rupture, and possibly as many as four to five earlier prehistoric earthquakes. We documented several geomorphic features that appeared offset by multiple events by making detailed topographic maps. Offset features were abundant along reaches of the fault with high topographic relief and large displacement. Slip distribution for the penultimate event, as recorded by offset rills, streams, and shrub-coppice dunes, is very similar to the slip distribution from the 1987 earthquake through April 1988. This similarity may prove to be fortuitous if afterslip from the 1987 event continues to increase the total slip for this earthquake. But if afterslip associated with the 1987 event ceases in the near future, then the past two earthquakes were nearly identical in slip, and the Superstition Hills fault may be expected to produce characteristic earthquakes of roughly magnitude 6½