Troubles with Bayesianism: An introduction to the psychological immune system

A Bayesian mind is, at its core, a rational mind. Bayesianism is thus well-suited to predict and explain mental processes that best exemplify our ability to be rational. However, evidence from belief acquisition and change appears to show that we do not acquire and update information in a Bayesian way. Instead, the principles of belief acquisition and updating seem grounded in maintaining a psychological immune system rather than in approximating a Bayesian processor

Using e-mail recruitment and an online questionnaire to establish effect size: A worked example

Background\ud Sample size calculations require effect size estimations. Sometimes, effect size estimations and standard deviation may not be readily available, particularly if efficacy is unknown because the intervention is new or developing, or the trial targets a new population. In such cases, one way to estimate the effect size is to gather expert opinion. This paper reports the use of a simple strategy to gather expert opinion to estimate a suitable effect size to use in a sample size calculation.\ud \ud Methods\ud Researchers involved in the design and analysis of clinical trials were identified at the University of Birmingham and via the MRC Hubs for Trials Methodology Research. An email invited them to participate.\ud \ud An online questionnaire was developed using the free online tool 'Survey Monkey©'. The questionnaire described an intervention, an electronic participant information sheet (e-PIS), which may increase recruitment rates to a trial. Respondents were asked how much they would need to see recruitment rates increased by, based on 90%. 70%, 50% and 30% baseline rates, (in a hypothetical study) before they would consider using an e-PIS in their research.\ud \ud Analyses comprised simple descriptive statistics.\ud \ud Results\ud The invitation to participate was sent to 122 people; 7 responded to say they were not involved in trial design and could not complete the questionnaire, 64 attempted it, 26 failed to complete it. Thirty-eight people completed the questionnaire and were included in the analysis (response rate 33%; 38/115). Of those who completed the questionnaire 44.7% (17/38) were at the academic grade of research fellow 26.3% (10/38) senior research fellow, and 28.9% (11/38) professor. Dependent upon the baseline recruitment rates presented in the questionnaire, participants wanted recruitment rate to increase from 6.9% to 28.9% before they would consider using the intervention.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud This paper has shown that in situations where effect size estimations cannot be collected from previous research, opinions from researchers and trialists can be quickly and easily collected by conducting a simple study using email recruitment and an online questionnaire. The results collected from the survey were successfully used in sample size calculations for a PhD research study protocol.\ud \u

Predicting human interruptibility with sensors, in

A person seeking someone else’s attention is normally able to quickly assess how interruptible they are. This assessment allows for behavior we perceive as natural, socially appropriate, or simply polite. On the other hand, today’s computer systems are almost entirely oblivious to the human world they operate in, and typically have no way to take into account the interruptibility of the user. This paper presents a Wizard of Oz study exploring whether, and how, robust sensor-based predictions of interruptibility might be constructed, which sensors might be most useful to such predictions, and how simple such sensors might be. The study simulates a range of possible sensors through human coding of audio and video recordings. Experience sampling is used to simultaneously collect randomly distributed self-reports of interruptibility. Based on these simulated sensors, we construct statistical models predicting human interruptibility and compare their predictions with the collected self-report data. The results of these models, although covering a demographically limited sample, are very promising, with the overall accuracy of several models reaching about 78%. Additionally, a model tuned to avoiding unwanted interruptions does so for 90 % of its predictions, while retaining 75 % overall accuracy

Initial evidence for the criterion-related and structural validity of the long versions of the direct and meta-perspectives of the Coach-Athlete Relationship Questionnaire

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2010 Taylor & Francis.The aim of the present study was to develop and initially validate a longer version of the direct (Jowett & Ntoumanis, 2004) and meta-perspectives (Jowett, 2009a, 2009b) of the Coach-Athlete Relationship Questionnaire (CART-Q). In Study 1, instruments (e.g. questionnaires, scales, and inventories) that have been used to assess relationship quality in the broader psychological literature were examined and items potentially relevant to the coach-athlete relationship were identified. The content validity of the identified items was then assessed using expert panels. A final questionnaire was subsequently prepared and administered to 693 participants (310 coaches and 383 athletes). Confirmatory factor analysis was employed to assess the multidimensional nature of the questionnaire based on the 3Cs (i.e. closeness, commitment, and complementarity) model of the coach-athlete relationship. The findings indicated that the direct and meta-perspective items of the long versions of the CART-Q approached an adequate data fit. Moreover, evidence for the internal consistency and criterion validity of the new instruments was also obtained. In Study 2, the newly developed measure was administered to an independent sample of 251 individuals (145 athletes and 106 coaches). Further statistical support was gained for the factorial validity and reliability of the longer version of the CART-Q

The role of interpersonal style in aggression and its containment in a forensic mental health setting:A correlational and pseudoprospective study of patients and nursing staff

Inpatient aggression on mental health wards is common and staff-patient interactions are frequently reported antecedents to aggression. However, relatively little is known about the precise relationship between aggression and these interactions, or their relationships with aggression and staff containment responses such as restraint and seclusion. This study aimed to determine the roles of anger and interpersonal style among mental health nurses and between nurses and patients in the occurrence of aggression and its containment. A correlational, pseudo-prospective study design was employed. n=85 inpatients and n=65 nurses were recruited from adult, low- and medium- secure wards of a secure forensic mental health service. Participants completed validated self-report anger and transactional interpersonal style measures. Inpatient aggression and containment incident data for a 3-month follow-up period were extracted from clinical records. Dyadic nurse-patient relationships were anti-complementary. Patients’ self-reported anger and staff-rated hostile interpersonal style were significantly positively correlated; staff self-reported anger and patient-rated dominant interpersonal style were also positively correlated. Patient anger predicted aggression and their interpersonal style predicted being subject to containment in the form of restraint and seclusion. There were no statistically significant differences identified on measures between staff who were and were not involved in containment. More targeted intervention for patients’ anger may have a positive impact on interpersonal style and lead to the reduction of incidents. Staff education and skills training programmes should emphasise the importance of interpersonal styles which could help to promote and enhance positive interaction

Wearable Haptic Devices for Gait Re-education by Rhythmic Haptic Cueing

This research explores the development and evaluation of wearable haptic devices for gait sensing and rhythmic haptic cueing in the context of gait re-education for people with neurological and neurodegenerative conditions. Many people with long-term neurological and neurodegenerative conditions such as Stroke, Brain Injury, Multiple Sclerosis or Parkinson’s disease suffer from impaired walking gait pattern. Gait improvement can lead to better fluidity in walking, improved health outcomes, greater independence, and enhanced quality of life. Existing lab-based studies with wearable devices have shown that rhythmic haptic cueing can cause immediate improvements to gait features such as temporal symmetry, stride length, and walking speed. However, current wearable systems are unsuitable for self-managed use for in-the-wild applications with people having such conditions. This work aims to investigate the research question of how wearable haptic devices can help in long-term gait re-education using rhythmic haptic cueing. A longitudinal pilot study has been conducted with a brain trauma survivor, providing rhythmic haptic cueing using a wearable haptic device as a therapeutic intervention for a two-week period. Preliminary results comparing pre and post-intervention gait measurements have shown improvements in walking speed, temporal asymmetry, and stride length. The pilot study has raised an array of issues that require further study. This work aims to develop and evaluate prototype systems through an iterative design process to make possible the self-managed use of such devices in-the-wild. These systems will directly provide therapeutic intervention for gait re-education, offer enhanced information for therapists, remotely monitor dosage adherence and inform treatment and prognoses over the long-term. This research will evaluate the use of technology from the perspective of multiple stakeholders, including clinicians, carers and patients. This work has the potential to impact clinical practice nationwide and worldwide in neuro-physiotherapy

Social presence and dishonesty in retail

Self-service checkouts (SCOs) in retail can benefit consumers and retailers, providing control and autonomy to shoppers independent from staff, together with reduced queuing times. Recent research indicates that the absence of staff may provide the opportunity for consumers to behave dishonestly, consistent with a perceived lack of social presence. This study examined whether a social presence in the form of various instantiations of embodied, visual, humanlike SCO interface agents had an effect on opportunistic behaviour. Using a simulated SCO scenario, participants experienced various dilemmas in which they could financially benefit themselves undeservedly. We hypothesised that a humanlike social presence integrated within the checkout screen would receive more attention and result in fewer instances of dishonesty compared to a less humanlike agent. This was partially supported by the results. The findings contribute to the theoretical framework in social presence research. We concluded that companies adopting self-service technology may consider the implementation of social presence in technology applications to support ethical consumer behaviour, but that more research is required to explore the mixed findings in the current study.<br/

Forming Judgments of Attitude Certainty, Intensity, and Importance: The Role of Subjective Experiences

Two studies examined the impact of subjective experiences on reports of attitude certainty, intensity, and importance. In Study 1, participants with moderate or extreme attitudes toward doctor-assisted suicide generated three (easy) or seven (hard) arguments that either supported or countered their opinion toward the issue prior to indicating the strength of their attitude. Participants with moderate attitudes rated their opinions as more intense, personally important, and held with greater certainty when they had generated either a small number of supporting arguments or a large number of opposing arguments. Ratings provided by individuals with extreme attitudes were unaffected by the argument generation task. In Study 2, the impact of ease of recall on strength-related judgments was eliminated when it was rendered nondiagnostic by a misattribution manipulation. Implications of these findings for attitude strength and other judgmental phenomena are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68385/2/10.1177_0146167299025007001.pd

Nonlinear Dynamics and Interpersonal Correlates of Verbal Turn-Taking Patterns in a Group Therapy Session

Interpersonal processes and dynamics are ubiquitous topics in psychotherapy, yet they are difficult to study and are theoretically fragmented across therapeutic subdisciplines. The current study tests an integrative model of interpersonal dynamics in small groups using nonlinear dynamical systems theory. The conversation of one group therapy session (with six adolescent sex offenders) is analyzed using orbital decomposition, which allows for the identification of patterns in categorical time series data. The results show evidence of selforganizing social patterns, based on formal measures of turbulence (Lyapunov dimension), information novelty (Shannon\u27s entropy), and complexity (fractal dimension). The degree of patterning in turn taking is significantly correlated with measurements of control, closeness, and conflict among group members. Clinical implications and directions for future research are discussed