Zika virus: New clinical syndromes and its emergence in the western hemisphere

Zika virus (ZIKV) had remained a relatively obscure flavivirus until a recent series of outbreaks accompanied by unexpectedly severe clinical complications brought this virus into the spotlight as causing an infection of global public health concern. In this review, we discuss the history and epidemiology of ZIKV infection, recent outbreaks in Oceania and the emergence of ZIKV in the Western Hemisphere, newly ascribed complications of ZIKV infection, including Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly, potential interactions between ZIKV and dengue virus, and the prospects for the development of antiviral agents and vaccines

Predicting the course of Alzheimer's progression.

Alzheimer's disease is the most common neurodegenerative disease and is characterized by the accumulation of amyloid-beta peptides leading to the formation of plaques and tau protein tangles in brain. These neuropathological features precede cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's dementia by many years. To better understand and predict the course of disease from early-stage asymptomatic to late-stage dementia, it is critical to study the patterns of progression of multiple markers. In particular, we aim to predict the likely future course of progression for individuals given only a single observation of their markers. Improved individual-level prediction may lead to improved clinical care and clinical trials. We propose a two-stage approach to modeling and predicting measures of cognition, function, brain imaging, fluid biomarkers, and diagnosis of individuals using multiple domains simultaneously. In the first stage, joint (or multivariate) mixed-effects models are used to simultaneously model multiple markers over time. In the second stage, random forests are used to predict categorical diagnoses (cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, or dementia) from predictions of continuous markers based on the first-stage model. The combination of the two models allows one to leverage their key strengths in order to obtain improved accuracy. We characterize the predictive accuracy of this two-stage approach using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. The two-stage approach using a single joint mixed-effects model for all continuous outcomes yields better diagnostic classification accuracy compared to using separate univariate mixed-effects models for each of the continuous outcomes. Overall prediction accuracy above 80% was achieved over a period of 2.5 years. The results further indicate that overall accuracy is improved when markers from multiple assessment domains, such as cognition, function, and brain imaging, are used in the prediction algorithm as compared to the use of markers from a single domain only

Cerebral atrophy in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer disease: rates and acceleration.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the regional and global cerebral atrophy rates and assess acceleration rates in healthy controls, subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and subjects with mild Alzheimer disease (AD). METHODS: Using 0-, 6-, 12-, 18-, 24-, and 36-month MRI scans of controls and subjects with MCI and AD from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database, we calculated volume change of whole brain, hippocampus, and ventricles between all pairs of scans using the boundary shift integral. RESULTS: We found no evidence of acceleration in whole-brain atrophy rates in any group. There was evidence that hippocampal atrophy rates in MCI subjects accelerate by 0.22%/year2 on average (p = 0.037). There was evidence of acceleration in rates of ventricular enlargement in subjects with MCI (p = 0.001) and AD (p < 0.001), with rates estimated to increase by 0.27 mL/year2 (95% confidence interval 0.12, 0.43) and 0.88 mL/year2 (95% confidence interval 0.47, 1.29), respectively. A post hoc analysis suggested that the acceleration of hippocampal loss in MCI subjects was mainly driven by the MCI subjects that were observed to progress to clinical AD within 3 years of baseline, with this group showing hippocampal atrophy rate acceleration of 0.50%/year2 (p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The small acceleration rates suggest a long period of transition to the pathologic losses seen in clinical AD. The acceleration in hippocampal atrophy rates in MCI subjects in the ADNI seems to be driven by those MCI subjects who concurrently progressed to a clinical diagnosis of AD

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods: The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings: Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation: Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Yellow fever in the diagnostics laboratory

Yellow fever (YF) remains a public health issue in endemic areas despite the availability of a safe and effective vaccine. In 2015-2016, urban outbreaks of YF were declared in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and a sylvatic outbreak has been ongoing in Brazil since December 2016. Of great concern is the risk of urban transmission cycles taking hold in Brazil and the possible spread to countries with susceptible populations and competent vectors. Vaccination remains the cornerstone of an outbreak response, but a low vaccine stockpile has forced a sparing-dose strategy, which has thus far been implemented in affected African countries and now in Brazil. Accurate laboratory confirmation of cases is critical for efficient outbreak control. A dearth of validated commercial assays for YF, however, and the shortcomings of serological methods make it challenging to implement YF diagnostics outside of reference laboratories. We examine the advantages and drawbacks of existing assays to identify the barriers to timely and efficient laboratory diagnosis. We stress the need to develop new diagnostic tools to meet current challenges in the fight against YF

Epidemiologic Responses to Anthrax Outbreaks: A Review of Field Investigations, 1950–2001

We used unpublished reports, published manuscripts, and communication with investigators to identify and summarize 49 anthrax-related epidemiologic field investigations conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1950 to August 2001. Of 41 investigations in which Bacillus anthracis caused human or animal disease, 24 were in agricultural settings, 11 in textile mills, and 6 in other settings. Among the other investigations, two focused on building decontamination, one was a response to bioterrorism threats, and five involved other causes. Knowledge gained in these investigations helped guide the public health response to the October 2001 intentional release of B. anthracis, especially by addressing the management of anthrax threats, prevention of occupational anthrax, use of antibiotic prophylaxis in exposed persons, use of vaccination, spread of B. anthracis spores in aerosols, clinical diagnostic and laboratory confirmation methods, techniques for environmental sampling of exposed surfaces, and methods for decontaminating buildings

An Ounce of Prevention is a Ton of Work: Mass Antibiotic Prophylaxis for Anthrax, New York City, 2001

Protocols for mass antibiotic prophylaxis against anthrax were under development in New York City beginning in early 1999. This groundwork allowed the city’s Department of Health to rapidly respond in 2001 to six situations in which cases were identified or anthrax spores were found. The key aspects of planning and lessons learned from each of these mass prophylaxis operations are reviewed. Antibiotic distribution was facilitated by limiting medical histories to issues relevant to prescribing prophylactic antibiotic therapy, formatting medical records to facilitate rapid decision making, and separating each component activity into discrete work stations. Successful implementation of mass prophylaxis operations was characterized by clarity of mission and eligibility criteria, well-defined lines of authority and responsibilities, effective communication, collaboration among city agencies (including law enforcement), and coordination of staffing and supplies. This model can be adapted for future planning needs including possible attacks with other bioterrorism agents, such as smallpox