The impact and cost-effectiveness of combined HIV prevention scenarios among transgender women sex-workers in Lima, Peru: A mathematical modelling study

Background HIV incidence remains high among transgender women in Lima, Peru, most of whom report sex work. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis and health system capacity assessment, we designed a mathematical model to guide HIV programmatic planning among transgender women sex workers (TWSW) in Lima. Methods Using a deterministic compartmental model, we modelled HIV transmission among TWSW, their stable partners, and their clients to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of combinations of interventions compared with the standard of care on reducing HIV incidence over a 10-year period. We simulated HIV transmission accounting for differences in sexual positioning in anal intercourse and condom use by partner type and fitted the model to HIV surveillance data using Latin hypercube sampling. The interventions we considered were 15% relative increase in condom use with clients and 10% relative increase with stable partners; increase in antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage at CD4 count lower than 500 cells per mm3 and greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm3; and 15% pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage using generic and branded formulations. We considered a basic scenario accounting for current limitations in the Peruvian HIV services and an enhanced scenario assuming achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and general improvements in HIV services. The 50 best fits according to log-likelihood were used to give the minimum and maximum values of intervention effect for each combination. We used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to measure the negative health outcomes associated with HIV infection that could be averted through the interventions investigated and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to compare their cost-effectiveness. Findings Under the basic scenario, combining the four interventions of increasing condom use with clients and stable partners, extending ART to people with CD4 count greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm3, and 15% PrEP coverage with generic drugs would avert 47% (range 27–51) of new infections in TWSW, their clients, and their stable partners over 10 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$509 per DALY averted. Under the enhanced scenario, this strategy would avert 61$1003 per DALY averted. Under both scenarios, implementation of this strategy approaches or surpasses the 50% incidence reduction goal and would represent a cost-effective use of country resources if generic PrEP drugs are used. The total cost of implementing this strategy under the enhanced scenario would be approximately $1·2 million per year over 10 years, corresponding to 10% of the current Global Fund's yearly contribution in Peru. Interpretation Investments in HIV services among TWSW in Lima would be cost-effective, even under stringent cost-effectiveness criteria when accounting for setting-specific resource constraints. Notable improvements in HIV testing rates, innovative interventions to increase condom use, and reduced PrEP costs will be key to achieving the 50% incidence reduction goal. Modelling studies incorporating stakeholders' perspectives and health system assessments can bring added value to HIV policy making

Correlates of condom use in a sample of MSM in Ecuador

BACKGROUND: In Ecuador, the prevalence of HIV in the general population is approximately 0.3%. However, up to 17% prevalence has been reported among specific groups of homosexual and bisexual men. The objective of this study is to explore correlates of condom use among men who have sex with men (MSM) across eight cities in Ecuador. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey design was used. A questionnaire including variables on sexual behaviour, demographics, and socio-economic characteristics was distributed to a sample of MSM in eight Ecuadorian cities. RESULTS: Information was obtained for 2,594 MSM across the eight cities. The largest subcategory of self-identification was active bisexuals (35%), followed by those who described themselves as "hombrados" (masculine gays, 22%). The mean age was 25 years, and the majority were unmarried (78%), with a median of 10 years of schooling (IQR 7 – 12). Regarding condom use, 55% of those interviewed had unprotected penetrative sex with each of their last three partners, and almost 25% had never used a condom. The most important correlates of condom use were single status, high life-skills rating, and high socio-economic status (RP 5.45, 95% CI 4.26 – 6.37; RP 1.84, 95% CI 1.79 – 1.86, and RP 1.20, 95% CI 1.01 – 1.31, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our data illustrate the urgent need for targeted HIV-prevention programs for MSM populations in Ecuador. MSM have the highest HIV prevalence in the country, and condom use is extremely low. It is imperative that prevention strategies be re-evaluated and re-prioritized to more effectively respond to the Ecuadorian epidemic

Why MSM in rural South African communities should be an HIV prevention research priority.

Research into HIV and men who have sex with men's (MSM) health in South Africa has been largely confined to the metropolitan centres. Only two studies were located making reference to MSM in rural contexts or same-sex behaviors among men in the same. There is growing recognition in South Africa that MSM are not only disproportionately affected by HIV and have been underserved by the country's national response, but that they contribute significantly to sustaining the high number of new infections recorded each year. We argue that to meet the objectives of the country's national strategic plan for HIV, STI and TB it is important we know how these behaviours may be contributing to the sustained rural HIV epidemic in the youngest age groups and determine what constitutes appropriate and feasible programmatic response that can be implemented in the country's public sector health services

Determining a cost effective intervention response to HIV/AIDS in Peru

BACKGROUND: The HIV epidemic in Peru is still regarded as concentrated -- sentinel surveillance data shows greatest rates of infection in men who have sex with men, while much lower rates are found in female sex workers and still lower in the general population. Without an appropriate set of preventive interventions, continuing infections could present a challenge to the sustainability of the present programme of universal access to treatment. Determining how specific prevention and care strategies would impact on the health of Peruvians should be key in reshaping the national response. METHODS: HIV/AIDS prevalence levels for risk groups with sufficient sentinel survey data were estimated. Unit costs were calculated for a series of interventions against HIV/AIDS which were subsequently inputted into a model to assess their ability to reduce infection transmission rates. Interventions included: mass media, voluntary counselling and testing; peer counselling for female sex workers; peer counselling for men who have sex with men; peer education of youth in-school; condom provision; STI treatment; prevention of mother to child transmission; and highly active antiretroviral therapy. Impact was assessed by the ability to reduce rates of transmission and quantified in terms of cost per DALY averted. RESULTS: Results of the analysis show that in Peru, the highest levels of HIV prevalence are found in men who have sex with men. Cost effectiveness varied greatly between interventions ranging from peer education of female commercial sex workers at $US 55 up to$US 5,928 (per DALY averted) for prevention of mother to child transmission. CONCLUSION: The results of this work add evidence-based clarity as to which interventions warrant greatest consideration when planning an intervention response to HIV in Peru. Cost effectiveness analysis provides a necessary element of transparency when facing choices about priority setting, particularly when the country plans to amplify its response through new interventions partly funded by the GFATM

Prevalence of Same-Sex Sexual Behavior and Associated Characteristics among Low-Income Urban Males in Peru

Peru has a concentrated HIV epidemic in which men who have sex with men are particularly vulnerable. We describe the lifetime prevalence of same-sex sexual contact and associated risk behaviors of men in Peru's general population, regardless of their sexual identity.A probability sample of males from low-income households in three Peruvian cities completed an epidemiologic survey addressing their sexual risk behavior, including sex with other men. Serum was tested for HSV-2, HIV, and syphilis. Urine was tested for chlamydia and gonorrhea. A total of 2,271 18-30 year old men and women were contacted, of whom 1,645 (72.4%) agreed to participate in the study. Among the sexually experienced men surveyed, 15.2% (85/558, 95% CI: 12.2%-18.2%) reported a history of sex with other men. Men ever reporting sex with men (MESM) had a lower educational level, had greater numbers of sex partners, and were more likely to engage in risk behaviors including unprotected sex with casual partners, paying for or providing compensated sex, and using illegal drugs. MESM were also more likely to have had previous STI symptoms or a prior STI diagnosis, and had a greater prevalence of HSV-2 seropositivity.Many low-income Peruvian men have engaged in same-sex sexual contact and maintain greater behavioral and biological risk factors for HIV/STI transmission than non-MESM. Improved surveillance strategies for HIV and STIs among MESM are necessary to better understand the epidemiology of HIV in Latin America and to prevent its further spread

A wager on the future: a practicable response to HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and the stubborn fact of process

In this article we focus on public health’s wager on the social implications of a daily antiretroviral pill to prevent HIV, referred to as PrEP (pre-exposure prophylaxis). The wager is shown to rely on modes of inquiry overly tied to what is known of the present in order to predict the future. Although such inquiry is not unusual when social research is called upon to assist health policy, predictive methodologies are unable to appreciate the dynamic and thus indeterminate nature of process. We ask: what mode of inquiry might practicably appreciate that what happens in the present will have a bearing on the future, without foreclosing on unknown possibles? Drawing on speculative and pragmatic philosophy, we reflect on our own qualitative research on PrEP to suggest that conventional methodological approaches can contribute to the future without seeking to determine what it will become

Accumulation of poly(A) RNA in nuclear granules enriched in Sam68 in motor neurons from the SMNA7 mouse model of SMA

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a severe motor neuron (MN) disease caused by the deletion or mutation of the survival motor neuron 1 (SMN1) gene, which results in reduced levels of the SMN protein and the selective degeneration of lower MNs. The best-known function of SMN is the biogenesis of spliceosomal snRNPs, the major components of the pre-mRNA splicing machinery. Therefore, SMN deficiency in SMA leads to widespread splicing abnormalities. We used the SMN?7 mouse model of SMA to investigate the cellular reorganization of polyadenylated mRNAs associated with the splicing dysfunction in MNs. We demonstrate that SMN deficiency induced the abnormal nuclear accumulation in euchromatin domains of poly(A) RNA granules (PARGs) enriched in the splicing regulator Sam68. However, these granules lacked other RNA-binding proteins, such as TDP43, PABPN1, hnRNPA12B, REF and Y14, which are essential for mRNA processing and nuclear export. These effects were accompanied by changes in the alternative splicing of the Sam68-dependent Bcl-x and Nrnx1 genes, as well as changes in the relative accumulation of the intron-containing Chat, Chodl, Myh9 and Myh14 mRNAs, which are all important for MN functions. PARG-containing MNs were observed at presymptomatic SMA stage, increasing their number during the symptomatic stage. Moreover, the massive accumulations of poly(A) RNA granules in MNs was accompanied by the cytoplasmic depletion of polyadenylated mRNAs for their translation. We suggest that the SMN-dependent abnormal accumulation of polyadenylated mRNAs and Sam68 in PARGs reflects a severe dysfunction of both mRNA processing and translation, which could contribute to SMA pathogenesis.This work was supported by grants from: “Dirección General de Investigación” of Spain (BFU2014-54754-P and SAF2015-70801-R, cofinanced by FEDER) and “Instituto de Investigación Marqués de Valdecilla-IDIVAL (NVAL17/22). Dr. Tapia is the recipient of a grant from SMA Europe and FundAME (Spain)