End of the crisis in the housing markets ? An international survey

The article examines recent developments in international housing markets and makes an assessment of the current situation. The first section demonstrates that the last upward movement in house prices in advanced economies, that started during the mid-1990s, differed from previous upward phases because of its strength, duration and degree of synchronisation across countries. Low interest rates, financial innovation, relaxed credit conditions and demographic factors stimulated housing demand and led to higher prices and investment. The strongest increases were recorded in the UK, Spain, Ireland and France. Starting around the mid-2000s, housing markets increasingly displayed signs of overheating and the American subprime crisis of 2006 triggered a downward correction in the US housing market. Housing markets elsewhere displayed a similar pattern around the same period. Nevertheless, developments were less synchronised during this downturn than during the upturn, as the fall in house prices seems to be over in some countries while the correction continues in other countries. The degree of over- or undervaluation of recent house prices can be calculated on the basis of some frequently used measures. Taking into account fundamental factors like disposable income, population growth and the very low interest rate level, it appears that current prices in most countries are more or less in line with fundamentals. These simple measures have their limitations, and consequently one should be cautious when interpreting the results. Additionally, several common risk factors (normalisation of interest rates, lower potential growth after the economic crisis, fiscal consolidation) and some country-specific risk factors might hinder a further recovery of housing markets. The recent crisis clearly demonstrated the need for stricter rules and control of the financial sector. Various initiatives have already been taken, and international institutions have also formulated recommendations for housing policy reform and the functioning of residential property and mortgage markets. Subsequently, the European government debt crisis that started in 2010 stimulated initiatives to strengthen economic governance in the European Union. In the new surveillance framework, macroeconomic risks will be monitored more closely and more broadly, and this will include the use of indicators related to the housing sector.house prices, investment in housing, interest rates, financial innovation, demography, valuation, disposable income, United States, United Kingdom, euro area, Belgium

Spatial pattern and temporal variability of runoff processes in Mediterranean Mountain environments - a case study of the Central Spanish Pyrenees

Mediterranean mountain environments like the Central Spanish Pyrenees show a highly variable rainfall-runoff response, mainly explained by the intense intra- and inter-annual variability of precipitation yield. This leads to a highly differentiated moisture status and therefore it is assumed to lead also to highly variable runoff contributing areas. For the identification of areas with certain dominant runoff processes in an experimental headwater catchment in which agriculture was abandoned several decades ago the concept of the topographical index was extended by means of weighting grids. These weighting rasters were generated using additional information on soils and vegetation. Runoff generating areas were identified widespread in the catchment, with Hortonian overland flow (HOF) dominating the runoff processes on degraded soils, and saturation overland flow (SOF) dominating the footslope areas, where hydromorphic soils were mapped. Rainfall-runoff experiments were performed to quantify runoff and erosion and to identify seasonal changes using experimental data gained in different seasons of the year. The seasonal changes in runoff response could be localised clearly within the areas of SOF, whereas the other ones showed a similar behaviour. This implied that the procedure of delineation had to be differentiated for dry and moist conditions, and that the SOF areas had to be reclassified as SSF/DP areas for dry conditions. Due to the location of these areas close to the ravine, we could explain the pronounced switching runoff behaviour of the catchment. GIS techniques combining different levels of topographic, soil and vegetation information showed to be suitable for delineation of areas with different runoff generation processes. The inclusion of seasonally distributed experimental data demonstrated that for dry conditions, slightly different methods have to be applied. Nevertheless, the study showed also the limitations of the combined methods: (I) subsurface flows and ground water recharge could only be deduced, not demonstrated, (II) finally, there is still a good knowledge of the area needed for an accurate process representation

European small portable rainfall simulators : a comparison of rainfall characteristics

Small-scale portable rainfall simulators are an essential research tool for investigating the process dynamics of soil erosion and surface hydrology. There is no standardisation of rainfall simulation and such rainfall simulators differ in design, rainfall intensities, rain spectra and research questions,which impede drawing a meaningful comparison between results. Nevertheless, these data become progressively important for soil erosion assessment and therefore, the basis for decision-makers in application-oriented erosion protection. The artificially generated rainfall of the simulators used at the Universities Basel, La Rioja, Malaga, Trier, Tübingen, Valencia, Wageningen, Zaragoza, and at different CSIC (Spanish Scientific Research Council) institutes (Almeria, Cordoba, Granada, Murcia and Zaragoza) was measured with the same methods (Laser Precipitation Monitor for drop spectra and rain collectors for spatial distribution). Data are very beneficial for improvements of simulators and comparison of simulators and results. Furthermore, they can be used for comparative studies, e.g. with measured natural rainfall spectra. A broad range of rainfall data was measured (e.g. intensity: 37–360 mm h−1; Christiansen Coefficient for spatial rainfall distribution: 61–98%; median volumetric drop diameter: 0.375–6.5 mm; mean kinetic energy expenditure: 25–1322 J m−2 h−1;meankinetic energy per unit area and unit depth of rainfall: 0.77–50 J m−2 mm−1). Similarities among the simulators could be found e.g. concerning drop size distributions (maximum drop numbers are reached within the smallest drop classes b1 mm) and low fall velocities of bigger drops due to a general physical restriction. The comparison represents a good data-base for improvements and provides a consistent picture of the different parameters of the simulators that were tested