Late Holocene seasonal temperature variability of the western Scottish shelf (St Kilda) recorded in fossil shells of the bivalve Glycymeris glycymeris

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordThe North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent shelf seas play a crucial role in global climate. To better constrain long-term natural variability and marine-terrestrial linkages in this region, a network of highly resolved marine archives from the open ocean and continental shelves is needed. In recent decades, bivalve sclerochronology has emerged as a field providing such records from the mid- to high latitudes. In May 2014, dead valves and young live specimens of the bivalve Glycymeris glycymeris were collected at St Kilda, Scotland. A floating chronology spanning 187 years was constructed with fossil shells and radiocarbon dated to 3910–3340 cal yr before present (BP), with a probability density cluster at ca. 3700–3500 cal yr BP. Sub-annual δ18O data were obtained from five fossil and three modern specimens and showed a strong seasonal signal in both time intervals. The growth season of G. glycymeris at this location today lasts from May to October, with most growth occurring before the temperature peak in August. Thus, the modern specimens and the fossil chronology represent late-spring and summer sea surface temperatures (SST). The annual temperature range was 4.4 °C in the fossil shells, which is similar to the range observed today (3.8 °C). Average SSTs reconstructed from the fossil shells were 1 °C cooler than in 2003–2013 CE and similar to the early 20th century CE. The radiocarbon age of the floating chronology coincides with a climatic shift to wetter conditions on the British Isles and with a cold interval observed in palaeoceanographic records from south of Iceland. However, our data do not provide evidence of a cold interval on the Scottish shelf. The similarity in growth season and temperature range between the fossil and modern specimens are attributed to similar boundary conditions in the fourth millennium BP compared to today

Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium

This is the final version of the article. Available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ(18)O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ(18)O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000-1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing.We thank the members of the RV Bjarni Sæmundsson (Cruise No. B05-2006). This work was supported by the NERC-funded ULTRA project (Grant Number NE/H023356/1), NERC-funded CLAM project; (Project No. NE/N001176/1) and EU Millennium Project (Project number 017008). This study is a contribution to the Climate Change Consortium for Wales (C3W). We thank Brian Long (Bangor University) and Dr Julia Becker (Cardiff University) for their technical support, and Dr Manfred Mudelsee for his assistance with the trend analysis. We thank Dr Jessica Tierney and an anonymous reviewer for providing the constructive comments in the reviewing process

Characterization of extrasolar terrestrial planets from diurnal photometric variability

The detection of massive planets orbiting nearby stars has become almost routine, but current techniques are as yet unable to detect terrestrial planets with masses comparable to the Earth's. Future space-based observatories to detect Earth-like planets are being planned. Terrestrial planets orbiting in the habitable zones of stars-where planetary surface conditions are compatible with the presence of liquid water-are of enormous interest because they might have global environments similar to Earth's and even harbor life. The light scattered by such a planet will vary in intensity and colour as the planet rotates; the resulting light curve will contain information about the planet's properties. Here we report a model that predicts features that should be discernible in light curves obtained by low-precision photometry. For extrasolar planets similar to Earth we expect daily flux variations up to hundreds of percent, depending sensitively on ice and cloud cover. Qualitative changes in surface or climate generate significant changes in the predicted light curves. This work suggests that the meteorological variability and the rotation period of an Earth-like planet could be derived from photometric observations. Other properties such as the composition of the surface (e.g., ocean versus land fraction), climate indicators (for example ice and cloud cover), and perhaps even signatures of Earth-like plant life could be constrained or possibly, with further study, even uniquely determined.Comment: Published in Nature. 9 pages including 3 figure

Dynamics of dental evolution in ornithopod dinosaurs.

Ornithopods were key herbivorous dinosaurs in Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystems, with a variety of tooth morphologies. Several clades, especially the 'duck-billed' hadrosaurids, became hugely diverse and abundant almost worldwide. Yet their evolutionary dynamics have been disputed, particularly whether they diversified in response to events in plant evolution. Here we focus on their remarkable dietary adaptations, using tooth and jaw characters to examine changes in dental disparity and evolutionary rate. Ornithopods explored different areas of dental morphospace throughout their evolution, showing a long-term expansion. There were four major evolutionary rate increases, the first among basal iguanodontians in the Middle-Late Jurassic, and the three others among the Hadrosauridae, above and below the split of their two major clades, in the middle of the Late Cretaceous. These evolutionary bursts do not correspond to times of plant diversification, including the radiation of the flowering plants, and suggest that dental innovation rather than coevolution with major plant clades was a major driver in ornithopod evolution

Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age

This is the final version. Available on open access from nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: The δ18O record24 used in this study was retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/20448. The δ13C series25 was accessed in January 2021 at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/22950. The Growth Index record23 is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/14609.Code availability: All python code used for the analyses is available on the repositories: https://zenodo.org/record/685603963 and https://github.com/BeatrizArellano/regimeshifts.The cooling transition into the Little Ice Age was the last notable shift in the climate system prior to anthropogenic global warming. It is hypothesised that sea-ice to ocean feedbacks sustained an initial cooling into the Little Ice Age by weakening the subpolar gyre circulation; a system that has been proposed to exhibit bistability. Empirical evidence for bistability within this transition has however been lacking. Using statistical indicators of resilience in three annually-resolved bivalve proxy records from the North Icelandic shelf, we show that the subpolar North Atlantic climate system destabilised during two episodes prior to the Little Ice Age. This loss of resilience indicates reduced attraction to one stable state, and a system vulnerable to an abrupt transition. The two episodes preceded wider subpolar North Atlantic change, consistent with subpolar gyre destabilisation and the approach of a tipping point, potentially heralding the transition to Little Ice Age conditions.European Union Horizon 2020Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Leverhulme Trus

Evidence for functional state transitions in intensively-managed soil ecosystems

Soils are fundamental to terrestrial ecosystem functioning and food security, thus their resilience to disturbances is critical. Furthermore, they provide effective models of complex natural systems to explore resilience concepts over experimentally-tractable short timescales. We studied soils derived from experimental plots with different land-use histories of long-term grass, arable and fallow to determine whether regimes of extreme drying and re-wetting would tip the systems into alternative stable states, contingent on their historical management. Prior to disturbance, grass and arable soils produced similar respiration responses when processing an introduced complex carbon substrate. A distinct respiration response from fallow soil here indicated a different prior functional state. Initial dry:wet disturbances reduced the respiration in all soils, suggesting that the microbial community was perturbed such that its function was impaired. After 12 drying and rewetting cycles, despite the extreme disturbance regime, soil from the grass plots, and those that had recently been grass, adapted and returned to their prior functional state. Arable soils were less resilient and shifted towards a functional state more similar to that of the fallow soil. Hence repeated stresses can apparently induce persistent shifts in functional states in soils, which are influenced by management history

Left gaze bias in humans, rhesus monkeys and domestic dogs

While viewing faces, human adults often demonstrate a natural gaze bias towards the left visual field, that is, the right side of the viewee’s face is often inspected first and for longer periods. Using a preferential looking paradigm, we demonstrate that this bias is neither uniquely human nor limited to primates, and provide evidence to help elucidate its biological function within a broader social cognitive framework. We observed that 6-month-old infants showed a wider tendency for left gaze preference towards objects and faces of different species and orientation, while in adults the bias appears only towards upright human faces. Rhesus monkeys showed a left gaze bias towards upright human and monkey faces, but not towards inverted faces. Domestic dogs, however, only demonstrated a left gaze bias towards human faces, but not towards monkey or dog faces, nor to inanimate object images. Our findings suggest that face- and species-sensitive gaze asymmetry is more widespread in the animal kingdom than previously recognised, is not constrained by attentional or scanning bias, and could be shaped by experience to develop adaptive behavioural significance

Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared