Mapping Chronic Disease Prevalence based on Medication Use and Socio-demographic variables: an Application of LASSO in healthcare in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND: Policymakers generally lack sufficiently detailed health information to develop localized health policy plans. Chronic disease prevalence mapping is difficult as accurate direct sources are often lacking. Improvement is possible by adding extra information such as medication use and demographic information to identify disease. The aim of the current study was to obtain small geographic area prevalence estimates for four common chronic diseases by modelling based on medication use and socio-economic variables and next to investigate regional patterns of disease. METHODS: Administrative hospital records and general practitioner registry data were linked to medication use and socio-economic characteristics. The training set (n = 707,021) contained GP diagnosis and/or hospital admission diagnosis as the standard for disease prevalence. For the entire Dutch population (n = 16,777,888), all information except GP diagnosis and hospital admission was available. LASSO regression models for binary outcomes were used to select variables strongly associated with disease. Dutch municipality (non-)standardized prevalence estimates for stroke, CHD, COPD and diabetes were then based on averages of predicted probabilities for each individual inhabitant. RESULTS: Adding medication use data as a predictor substantially improved model performance. Estimates at the municipality level performed best for diabetes with a weighted percentage error (WPE) of 6.8%, and worst for COPD (WPE 14.5%)Disease prevalence showed clear regional patterns, also after standardization for age. CONCLUSION: Adding medication use as an indicator of disease prevalence next to socio-economic variables substantially improved estimates at the municipality level. The resulting individual disease probabilities could be aggregated into any desired regional level and provide a useful tool to identify regional patterns and inform local policy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10754-4

Routine prenatal screening for congenital heart disease: what can be expected? A decision-analytic approach

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the potential impact of fetal ultrasound screening on the number of newborns affected by cardiac anomalies. METHODS: A decision model was developed that included the prevalence and history of congenital heart disease, characteristics of ultrasound, risk of abortion, and attitude toward pregnancy termination. Probabilities were obtained with a literature survey; sensitivity analysis showed their influence on expected outcomes. RESULTS: Presently, screening programs may prevent the birth of approximately 1300 severely affected newborns per million second-trimester pregnancies. However, over 2000 terminations of pregnancy would be required, 750 of which would have ended in intrauterine death or spontaneous abortion. Further, 9900 false-positive screening results would occur, requiring referral. Only the sensitivity of routine screening and attitude toward termination of pregnancy appeared to influence the yield substantially. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of routine screening for congenital heart disease appeared relatively small. Further data may be required to fully assess the utility of prenatal screening

Clinical relevance of endoscopic peri-appendiceal red patch in ulcerative colitis patients.

Background Increasing evidence is suggesting appendectomy as an alternative treatment for ulcerative colitis (UC), especially in case of histological appendiceal inflammation. Therefore, preoperative identification of appendiceal inflammation could be beneficial. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of peri-appendiceal red patch (PARP) on colonoscopy. In addition, prognostic relevance of PARP for disease course and its predictive value for histological appendiceal inflammation in patients undergoing appendectomy was assessed. Methods UC patients undergoing colonoscopy in 2014/2015 were included to determine PARP-prevalence in a cross-sectional study. Findings were correlated to patient and disease characteristics, upscaling of treatment and colectomy rates after cross-sectional colonoscopy. In patients undergoing appendiceal resection, histopathological inflammation was assessed using the Robarts Histopathology Index (RHI). Results In total, 249 patients were included of which 17.7% (44/249) had a PARP. Patients with PARP were significantly younger with a shorter disease course. The majority of patients with PARP (61.4%) was in endoscopic remission. Patients with PARP required more upscaling of medical therapy (81.8% vs. 58.0%, p < 0.01), and more PARP patients underwent colectomy (13.6% vs. 4.9%, p = 0.04). Patients with PARP had a higher median RHI in resection specimens (14 vs. 7, p < 0.01). Conclusion PARP was present during colonoscopy regardless disease activity and was predominantly found in UC patients with younger age and shorter disease duration. PARP patients had a more severe course of UC, and in case of appendectomy, more severe histopathological appendiceal inflammation. Appendectomy as an experimental therapy for UC has been suggested to be predominantly effective in UC patients with appendiceal inflammation. This study demonstrates that presence of a PARP on colonoscopy predicts appendiceal inflammation. After consensus has been reached on the therapeutic effect of appendectomy, assessing PARP presence during colonoscopy could therefore contribute to identifying patients most likely to respond

Do self-talk phrases affect behavior in ultimatum games?

The current study investigates whether self-talk phrases can influence behavior in Ultimatum Games. In our three self-talk treatments, participants were instructed to tell themselves (i) to keep their own interests in mind, (ii) to also think of the other person, or (iii) to take some time to contemplate their decision. We investigate how such so-called experimenter-determined strategic self-talk phrases affect behavior and emotions in comparison to a control treatment without instructed self-talk. The results demonstrate that other-focused self-talk can nudge proposers towards fair behavior, as offers were higher in this group than in the other conditions. For responders, self-talk tended to increase acceptance rates of unfair offers as compared to the condition without self-talk. This effect is significant for both other-focused and contemplation-inducing self-talk but not for self-focused self-talk. In the self-focused condition, responders were most dissatisfied with unfair offers. These findings suggest that use of self-talk can increase acceptance rates in responders, and that focusing on personal interests can undermine this effect as it negatively impacts the responders’ emotional experience. In sum, our study shows that strategic self-talk interventions can be used to affect behavior in bargaining situations

Centralising acute stroke care within clinical practice in the Netherlands: lower bounds of the causal impact

BACKGROUND Authors in previous studies demonstrated that centralising acute stroke care is associated with an increased chance of timely Intra-Venous Thrombolysis (IVT) and lower costs compared to care at community hospitals. In this study we estimated the lower bound of the causal impact of centralising IVT on health and cost outcomes within clinical practice in the Northern Netherlands. METHODS We used observational data from 267 and 780 patients in a centralised and decentralised system, respectively. The original dataset was linked to the hospital information systems. Literature on healthcare costs and Quality of Life (QoL) values up to 3 months post-stroke was searched to complete the input. We used Synthetic Control Methods (SCM) to counter selection bias. Differences in SCM outcomes included 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). To deal with unobserved heterogeneity we focused on recently developed methods to obtain the lower bounds of the causal impact. RESULTS Using SCM to assess centralising acute stroke 3 months post-stroke revealed healthcare savings of $US 1735 (CI, 505 to 2966) while gaining 0.03 (CI, − 0.01 to 0.73) QoL per patient. The corresponding lower bounds of the causal impact are$US 1581 and 0.01. The dominant effect remained stable in the deterministic sensitivity analyses with $US 1360 (CI, 476 to 2244) as the most conservative estimate. CONCLUSIONS In this study we showed that a centralised system for acute stroke care appeared both cost-saving and yielded better health outcomes. The results are highly relevant for policy makers, as this is the first study to address the issues of selection and unobserved heterogeneity in the evaluation of centralising acute stroke care, hence presenting causal estimates for budget decisions