Fire and climate: contrasting pressures on tropical Andean timberline species

Department of Biological Sciences; Florida Institute of Technology; Melbourne FL USA Department of Biological Sciences; Florida Institute of Technology; Melbourne FL USA Department of Biological Sciences; Florida Institute of Technology; Melbourne FL USA Geography, College of Life & Environmental Sciences; University of Exeter; Exeter UK Department of Biological Sciences; Florida Institute of Technology; Melbourne FL USA CEPSAR; The Open University; Milton Keynes UK Instituto de Geología; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Ciudad Universitaria; Mexico City Mexico Department of Forest and Soil Sciences; University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna; Vienna Austria Department of Biology and Center for Energy; Environment and Sustainability; Wake Forest University; Winston Salem NC USACopyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.Aim: The aim was to test competing hypotheses regarding migration of the Andean timberline within the last 2000 years. Location: The upper forest limit in Manu National Park, Peru. Methods: A randomized stratified design provided 21 soil profiles from forested sites just below the timberline, 15 from puna grassland sites just above the timberline and 15 from the transitional habitat at the puna–forest boundary. From each profile a surface sample (hereafter modern) and a sample from the base of the organic horizon (hereafter historical) were collected. Pollen and charcoal were analysed from the modern and historical layers of the 51 soil profiles. A chronological framework was provided by 24 14C dates. Data were ordinated as modern and historical groups and the temporal trends illustrated by Procrustes rotation. Results: The organic layer from the soil profiles represented the last 600–2000 years. Fire was much more abundant in all habitat types (puna, transitional and forested) in the modern compared with the historical groups. Samples that had historically been in puna just above the timberline showed encroachment by woody species. Samples that had been forested were still classified as forest but their composition had become more transitional. Sites that were transitional appeared to represent a new or expanded class of sites that was far less abundant historically. Main conclusions: Our results are consistent with ongoing warming causing an upslope migration of species, although not necessarily of the timberline. Weedy fire-tolerant species are spreading upslope, creating a transitional forest, softening the boundary between forest and puna. Simultaneously, fire introduced to improve grazing outside the park has increasingly penetrated the forest and is causing the upper timberline to shift towards more fire-tolerant and weedy species. Consequently, both the form of the ecotone between forest and grassland and the species composition of these forests is changing and is expected to continue to change, representing a shifting baseline for what is considered to be natural.Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Andes-to-Amazon programmeBlue Moon FundNational Science Foundatio

Evolution of Novel Signal Traits in the Absence of Female Preferences in Neoconocephalus Katydids (Orthoptera, Tettigoniidae)

Background Significance: Communication signals that function to bring together the sexes are important for maintaining reproductive isolation in many taxa. Changes in male calls are often attributed to sexual selection, in which female preferences initiate signal divergence. Natural selection can also influence signal traits if calls attract predators or parasitoids, or if calling is energetically costly. Neutral evolution is often neglected in the context of acoustic communication. Methodology/Principal Findings: We describe a signal trait that appears to have evolved in the absence of either sexual or natural selection. In the katydid genus Neoconocephalus, calls with a derived pattern in which pulses are grouped into pairs have evolved five times independently. We have previously shown that in three of these species, females require the double pulse pattern for call recognition, and hence the recognition system of the females is also in a derived state. Here we describe the remaining two species and find that although males produce the derived call pattern, females use the ancestral recognition mechanism in which no pulse pattern is required. Females respond equally well to the single and double pulse calls, indicating that the derived trait is selectively neutral in the context of mate recognition. Conclusions/Significance: These results suggest that 1) neutral changes in signal traits could be important in the diversification of communication systems, and 2) males rather than females may be responsible for initiating signa

Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.Comment: in Large Deviations and Asymptotic Methods in Finance, (Editors: P. Friz, J. Gatheral, A. Gulisashvili, A. Jacqier, J. Teichmann) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 110 2015

A Survey on Continuous Time Computations

We provide an overview of theories of continuous time computation. These theories allow us to understand both the hardness of questions related to continuous time dynamical systems and the computational power of continuous time analog models. We survey the existing models, summarizing results, and point to relevant references in the literature

Unified treatment algorithm for the management of crotaline snakebite in the United States: results of an evidence-informed consensus workshop

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Envenomation by crotaline snakes (rattlesnake, cottonmouth, copperhead) is a complex, potentially lethal condition affecting thousands of people in the United States each year. Treatment of crotaline envenomation is not standardized, and significant variation in practice exists.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A geographically diverse panel of experts was convened for the purpose of deriving an evidence-informed unified treatment algorithm. Research staff analyzed the extant medical literature and performed targeted analyses of existing databases to inform specific clinical decisions. A trained external facilitator used modified Delphi and structured consensus methodology to achieve consensus on the final treatment algorithm.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A unified treatment algorithm was produced and endorsed by all nine expert panel members. This algorithm provides guidance about clinical and laboratory observations, indications for and dosing of antivenom, adjunctive therapies, post-stabilization care, and management of complications from envenomation and therapy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Clinical manifestations and ideal treatment of crotaline snakebite differ greatly, and can result in severe complications. Using a modified Delphi method, we provide evidence-informed treatment guidelines in an attempt to reduce variation in care and possibly improve clinical outcomes.</p