A simple mechanism for the climatological midsummer drought along the Pacific coast of Central America

© ATMOSFERA, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of ATMOSFERA for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Atmósfera 26 (2013): 261-281.The global distribution, seasonal evolution, and underlying mechanisms for the climatological midsummer drought (MSD) are investigated using a suite of relatively high spatial and temporal resolution station observations and reanalysis data with particular focus on the Pacific coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Although the MSD of Central America stands out in terms of spatial scale and coherence, it is neither unique to the Greater Caribbean Region (GCR) nor necessarily the strongest MSD on Earth based on an objective analysis of several global precipitation data sets. A mechanism for the MSD is proposed that relates the latitudinal dependence of the two climatological precipitation maxima to the biannual crossing of the solar declination (SD), driving two peaks in convective instability and hence rainfall. In addition to this underlying local mechanism, a number of remote processes tend to peak during the apex of the MSD, including the North American monsoon, the Caribbean low-level jet, and the North Atlantic subtropical high, which may also act to suppress rainfall along the Pacific coast of Central America and generate interannual variability in the strength or timing of the MSD. However, our findings challenge the existing paradigm that the MSD owes its existence to a precipitation-suppressing mechanism. Rather, aided by the analysis of higher-temporal resolution precipitation records and considering variations in latitude, we suggest the MSD is essentially the result of one precipitation-enhancing mechanism occurring twice.The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program, under awards NA10OAR0110239 to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, NA10OAR4310253 to the University of Maryland, and NA10OAR4310252 to Columbia University

A Numerical Simulation of the Mean Water Pathways in the Subtropical and Tropical Pacific Ocean

A reduced-gravity, primitive-equation, upper-ocean general circulation model is used to study the mean water pathways in the North Pacific subtropical and tropical ocean. The model features an explicit physical representation of the surface mixed layer, realistic basin geometry, observed wind and heat flux forcing, and a horizontal grid-stretching technique and a vertical sigma coordinate to obtain a realistic simulation of the subtropical/tropical circulation. Velocity fields, and isopycnal and trajectory analyses are used to understand the mean flow of mixed layer and thermocline waters between the subtropics and Tropics. Subtropical/tropical water pathways are not simply direct meridional routes; the existence of vigorous zonal current systems obviously complicates the picture. In the surface mixed layer, upwelled equatorial waters flow into the subtropical gyre mainly through the midlatitude western boundary current (the model Kuroshio). There is additionally an interior ocean pathway, through the Subtropical Countercurrent (an eastward flow across the middle of the subtropical gyre), that directly feeds subtropical subduction sites. Below the mixed layer, the water pathways in the subtropical thermocline essentially reflect the anticyclonic gyre circulation where we find that the model subtropical gyre separates into two circulation centers. The surface circulation also features a double-cell pattern, with the poleward cell centered at about 30°N and the equatorward component contained between 15° and 25°N. In addition, thermocline waters that can be traced to subtropical subduction sites move toward the Tropics almost zonally across the basin, succeeding in flowing toward the equator only along relatively narrow north–south conduits. The low-latitude western boundary currents serve as the main southward circuit for the subducted subtropical thermocline water. However, the model does find a direct flow of thermocline water into the Tropics through the ocean interior, confined to the far western Pacific (away from the low-latitude western boundary currents) across 10°N. This interior pathway is found just to the west of a recirculating gyre in and just below the mixed layer in the northeastern Tropics. This equatorward interior flow and a flow that can be traced directly to the western boundary are then swept eastward by the deeper branches of the North Equatorial Countercurrent, finally penetrating to the equator in the central and eastern Pacific. Most of these results are consistent with available observations and recently published theoretical and idealized numerical experiments, although the interior pathway of subtropical thermocline water into the Tropics found in this experiment is not apparent in other published numerical simulations. Potential vorticity dynamics are useful in explaining the pathways taken by subtropical thermocline water as it flows into the Tropics. In particular, a large-scale zonally oriented “island” of homogenous potential vorticity, whose signature is determined by thin isopycnal layers in the central tropical Pacific along about 10°N, is dynamically linked to a circulation that does not flow directly from the subtropics to the Tropics. This large-scale potential vorticity feature helps to explain the circuitous pathways of the subducted subtropical thermocline waters as they approach the equator. Consequently, waters must first flow westward to the western boundary north of these closed potential vorticity contours and then mostly move southward through the low-latitude western boundary currents, flow eastward with the North Equatorial Countercurrent, and finally equatorward to join the Equatorial Undercurrent in the thermocline

The Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System

Here we assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. The baseline experiment assimilates satellite sea level (SL), sea surface temperature (SST), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (Tz, Sz). These baseline experiments are then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (version 5.0 Lilly and Lagerloef, 2008) and SMAP (version 2.0 Meissner and Wentz, 2016) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation over 0-8 month forecast lead-times and removing the salty bias from SMAP data helps to extend useful forecasts out to 12 month lead-times

Sea surface topography fields of the tropical Pacific from data assimilation

Time series of maps of monthly tropical Pacific dynamic topography anomalies from 1979 through 1985 were constructed by means of assimilation of tide gauge and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data into a linear model driven by observed winds. Estimates of error statistics were calculated and compared to actual differences between hindcasts and observations. Four experiments were performed as follows: one with no assimilation, one with assimiation of sea level anomaly data from eight selected island tide gauge stations, one with assimilation of dynamic height anomalies derived from XBT data, and one with both XBT and tide gauge data assimilated. Data from seven additional tide gauge stations were withheld from the assimilation process and used for verification in all four experiments. Statistical objective maps based on data alone were also constructed for comparison purposes. The dynamic response of the model without assimilation was, in general, weaker than the observed response. Assimilation resulted in enhanced signal amplitude in all three assimilation experiments. RMS amplitudes of statistical objective maps were only strong near observing points. In large data-void regions these maps show amplitudes even weaker than the wind-driven model without assimilation. With few exceptions the error estimates generated by the Kalman filter appeared quite reasonable. Since the error processes cannot be assumed to be white or stationary, we could find no straightforward way to test the formal statistical hypothesis that the time series of differences between the filter output and the actual observations were drawn from a population with statistics given by the Kalman filter estimates. The autocovariance of the innovation sequence, i.e., the sequence of differences between forecasts before assimilation and observations, has long been used as an indicator of how close a filter is to optimality. We found that the best filter we could devise was still short of the goal of producing a white innovation sequence. In this and earlier studies, little sensitivity has been found to the parameters under our direct control. Extensive changes in the assumed error statistics make only marginal differences. The same is true for long time and space scale behavior of different models with richer physics and finer resolution. Better data assimilation results will probably require relaxation of the assumptions of stationarity and serial independence of the errors. Formulation of such detailed noise models will require longer time series, with the attendant problems of matching very different data sets

An optimized design for a moored instrument array in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

This paper presents a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) which are intended as a design study for a proposed array of instrumented moorings in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Fields of TOPEX/Poseidon sea surface height anomalies are subsampled with the goal being reconstruction of the original fields through the use of reduced-space Kalman filter data assimilation at a restricted number of locations. Our approach differs from typical identical and fraternal twin experiments in that real observed data (i.e., TOPEX/Poseidon data) are subsampled and used in place of synthetic data in all phases of the OSSEs. In this way the question of how closely a particular model-generated data set resembles nature is avoided. Several data assimilation runs are performed in order to optimize the location of a limited number of moorings for the proposed Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA). Results of experiments in which data are assimilated at 2°N, 2°S and the equator and the longitude is systematically varied by 5° show that the greatest impact of the assimilated data occurs when the observations are taken between 15°W and 30°W. Next, a more systematic technique is presented which allows us to determine optimal points in an objective fashion by applying a least squares regression approach to reconstruct the errors on a dense array of points from the data misfits at any three selected points. The forecast error structure from the Kalman filter is used in a novel way to assess the optimality of mooring locations. From a large sample of triads of points, the optimal mooring locations are found to be along the equator at 35°W, 20°W, and 10°W. Additional experiments are performed to demonstrate the efficacy of the initial and final PIRATA configurations and the added value that can be expected from PIRATA observations beyond existing expendable bathythermograph observations