On the fiscal implications of twin crises

Issued under the auspices of the Centre's research programme in International Macroeconomics. Also available at http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP2918.asp target=NewWindow>www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP2918.aspAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:3597.9512(no 2918) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreSIGLEGBUnited Kingdo

Capacity utilization and technology shocks in the US manufacturing sector

The ability of real business cycle models to generate reasonable aggregate fluctuations depends on the time series properties of technology shocks measured by the change of total factor productivity. Three specifications of a non‐parametric productivity analysis which correct to different degrees for variations of capacity utilization are compared in this article using data for three‐ and four‐digit US manufacturing industries during the years 1958–1996. The results show that correcting for utilization generally leads to substantially smaller technology shocks that are less strongly correlated with growth of output and hours. Moreover, the probability of technological regress is considerably lower after the correction.technology shocks, business cycles, non‐parametric productivity measurement, D24, E32, L60, O47, C14,

Surto de aflatoxicose em bezerros no Rio Grande do Sul Outbreak of aflatoxicosis in calves in southern Brazil

Um surto de aflatoxicose crônica é relatado em bezerros de raça leiteira. Quarenta bezerros holandeses machos de quatro meses de idade e aproximadamente 100kg eram mantidos em gaiolas individuais de 1,5 x 1,5m e alimentados com uma ração constituída por feno de alfafa, milho quebrado e substituto de leite. Seis bezerros (15%) morreram após apresentar uma doença caracterizada por mau desenvolvimento geral, diarreia, pelagem áspera, dor abdominal, tenesmo, prolapso de reto e bruxismo. Alguns bezerros "deitavam e rolavam" no chão da gaiola. A duração do curso clínico, segundo observado pelos proprietários, foi de 2-3 dias; muitos terneiros desse lote que não morreram permaneceram pouco desenvolvidos. Três bezerros foram necropsiados. Os achados de necropsia incluíam fígado firme e castanho-claro, marcados hidrotórax e ascite, e edema do mesentério, mesocólon e das dobras da mucosa do abomaso. Os principais achados histopatológicos estavam restritos ao fígado e consistiam de fibrose, moderada megalocitose, hiperplasia de ductos biliares e lesão veno-oclusiva. A procura por contaminação de Senecio spp. no feno de alfafa resultou negativa. A análise do milho do alimento dos bezerros por cromatografia de camada delgada revelou 5.136ppb de aflatoxina B1. O diagnóstico de aflatoxicose foi feito baseado nos sinais clínicos e patologia característicos, na ausência de Senecio spp. na alimentação dos terneiros e na presença de altos níveis de aflatoxina no milho da alimentação dos bezerros.<br>An outbreak of chronic aflatoxicosis is reported in dairy calves. Forty 4-month-old male Holstein calves of approximately 100kg were kept in individual cages of 1.5 x 1.5m and were fed a ration constituted by alfalfa hay, broken corn and milk substitute. Six calves (15%) died after presenting a disease characterized by general unthriftiness, diarrhea, rough hair coats, abdominal pain, prolapsed rectum, grinding of teeth, and lying down and rolling. The clinical course, as observed by the owners, was 2-3 days; however many calves in this lot that did not die, remained underdeveloped. Three calves were necropsied. Necropsy findings included firm, light tan livers and marked hydrothorax, ascites and edema of the mesentery, mesocolon and of the mucosal folds of the abomasum. Main histopathological changes were restricted to the liver and consisted of fibrosis, moderate megalocytosis, biliary duct hyperplasia and veno-occlusive disease. The search for Senecio spp. contamination in the alfalfa hay resulted negative. The analysis by thin layer chromatography of the corn fed to calves revealed 5,136 ppb of aflatoxin B1. A diagnosis of aflatoxicosis was made based on the characteristic clinical signs and pathology, on the absence of Senecio spp. in the food and on the presence of high levels of aflatoxin in the corn fed to the calves

Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the Euro-zone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparison demonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output gaps calculated with different methods is generally low, the methods imply different turning points, and the estimated level of the output gap differs greatly. Moreover, tests suggest that some of the methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the Euro-zone. Conclusions for business cycle analysis and economic policy are offered. Zusammenfassung Ansätze zur Schätzung des Output-Gap in der Euro-Zone: Ein empirischer Vergleich ausgewählter Methoden Der Aufsatz untersucht einige populäre Methoden zur Messung des Output-Gaps auf der Basis von aggregierten Daten für die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen auch sie erhebliche Unterschiede, insbesondere ist die Korrelation zwischen Output-Gap-Schätzungen auf Basis verschiedener Methoden niedrig, die Ansätze implizieren differierende Wendepunkte, und das Niveau des Output-Gaps variiert stark. Empirische Untersuchungen zeigen zudem, dass der Informationsgehalt der Gap-Variablen für die Prognose der Inflationsrate nur sehr klein ist. Einigen Schlussfolgerungen hinsichtlich der Nützlichkeit von Output-Gap-Schätzungen und für die Wirtschaftspolitik werden gezogen

Myo3A, One of Two Class III Myosin Genes Expressed in Vertebrate Retina, Is Localized to the Calycal Processes of Rod and Cone Photoreceptors and Is Expressed in the Sacculus

The striped bass has two retina-expressed class III myosin genes, each composed of a kinase, motor, and tail domain. We report the cloning, sequence analysis, and expression patterns of the long (Myo3A) and short (Myo3B) class III myosins, as well as cellular localization and biochemical characterization of the long isoform, Myo3A. Myo3A (209 kDa) is expressed in the retina, brain, testis, and sacculus, and Myo3B (155 kDa) is expressed in the retina, intestine, and testis. The tails of these two isoforms contain two highly conserved domains, 3THDI and 3THDII. Whereas Myo3B has three IQ motifs, Myo3A has nine IQ motifs, four in its neck and five in its tail domain. Myo3A localizes to actin filament bundles of photoreceptors and is concentrated in the calycal processes. An anti-Myo3A antibody decorates the actin cytoskeleton of rod inner/outer segments, and this labeling is reduced by the presence of ATP. The ATP-sensitive actin association is a feature characteristic of myosin motors. The numerous IQ motifs may play a structural or signaling role in the Myo3A, and its localization to calycal processes indicates that this myosin mediates a local function at this site in vertebrate photoreceptors