Risk Model Development and Validation for Prediction of Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease in a North American Population.

Background Accurate prediction of coronary artery aneurysms ( CAAs ) in patients with Kawasaki disease remains challenging in North American cohorts. We sought to develop and validate a risk model for CAA prediction. Methods and Results A binary outcome of CAA was defined as left anterior descending or right coronary artery Z score ≥2.5 at 2 to 8 weeks after fever onset in a development cohort (n=903) and a validation cohort (n=185) of patients with Kawasaki disease. Associations of baseline clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables with later CAA were assessed in the development cohort using logistic regression. Discrimination (c statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) of the final model were evaluated. A practical risk score assigning points to each variable in the final model was created based on model coefficients from the development cohort. Predictors of CAAs at 2 to 8 weeks were baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0, age <6 months, Asian race, and C-reactive protein ≥13 mg/ dL (c=0.82 in the development cohort, c=0.93 in the validation cohort). The CAA risk score assigned 2 points for baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0 and 1 point for each of the other variables, with creation of low- (0-1), moderate- (2), and high- (3-5) risk groups. The odds of CAA s were 16-fold greater in the high- versus the low-risk groups in the development cohort (odds ratio, 16.4; 95% CI , 9.71-27.7 [ P<0.001]), and >40-fold greater in the validation cohort (odds ratio, 44.0; 95% CI, 10.8-180 [ P<0.001]). Conclusions Our risk model for CAA in Kawasaki disease consisting of baseline demographic, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables had excellent predictive utility and should undergo prospective testing

Treatment Intensification in Patients With Kawasaki Disease and Coronary Aneurysm at Diagnosis.

BackgroundCoronary artery aneurysms (CAA) are a serious complication of Kawasaki disease. Treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) within 10 days of fever onset reduces the risk of CAA from 25% to <5%. Corticosteroids and infliximab are often used in high-risk patients or those with CAA at diagnosis, but there are no data on their longer-term impact on CAA.MethodsRetrospective multicenter study including children who had CAA with a z score ≥2.5 and <10 at time of diagnosis and who received primary therapy with IVIg alone or in combination with either corticosteroids or infliximab within 10 days of onset of fever.ResultsOf 121 children, with a median age of 2.8 (range 0.1-15.5) years, 30 (25%) received primary therapy with corticosteroids and IVIg, 58 (48%) received primary therapy with infliximab and IVIg, and 33 (27%) received primary therapy with IVIg only. Median coronary z scores at the time of diagnosis did not differ among treatment groups (P = .39). Primary treatment intensification with either corticosteroids or infliximab were independent protective factors against progression of coronary size on follow-up (coefficient: -1.31 [95% confidence interval: -2.33 to -0.29]; coefficient: -1.07 [95% confidence interval: -1.95 to -0.19], respectively).ConclusionsAmong a high-risk group of patients with Kawasaki disease with CAA on baseline echocardiography, those treated with corticosteroids or infliximab in addition to IVIg had less progression in CAA size compared with those treated with IVIg alone. Prospective randomized trials are needed to determine the best adjunctive treatment of patients who present with CAA

Detection Response Tasks: Using Remote, Headmounted and Tactile Signals to Assess Cognitive Demand While Driving

Three versions of the Detection Response Task (DRT) were evaluated and compared as methods to assess cognitive demand while driving. Participants performed tasks known to manipulate cognitive demand (N_Back tasks) and realworld cognitive demand tasks using the iPhone interface, Siri, while driving a simulator. The Remote DRT, the Head Mounted DRT and the Tactile DRT were all sensitive to task demands but advantages were found to using the newer versions for the assessment of cognitive distraction. This work is part of an international collaborative research effort to standardize the DRT (ISO WD17488)

Blood Lead Levels and Serum Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 Concentrations in Peripubertal Boys

Background: Childhood lead exposure has been associated with growth delay. However, the association between blood lead levels (BLLs) and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) has not been characterized in a large cohort with low-level lead exposure. Methods: We recruited 394 boys 8–9 years of age from an industrial Russian town in 2003–2005 and followed them annually thereafter. We used linear regression models to estimate the association of baseline BLLs with serum IGF-1 concentration at two follow-up visits (ages 10–11 and 12–13 years), adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic covariates. Results: At study entry, median BLL was 3 μg/dL (range, < 0.5–31 μg/dL), most boys (86%) were prepubertal, and mean ± SD height and BMI z-scores were 0.14 ± 1.0 and –0.2 ± 1.3, respectively. After adjustment for covariates, the mean follow-up IGF-1 concentration was 29.2 ng/mL lower (95% CI: –43.8, –14.5) for boys with high versus low BLL (≥ 5 μg/dL or < 5 μg/dL); this difference persisted after further adjustment for pubertal status. The association of BLL with IGF-1 was stronger for mid-pubertal than prepubertal boys (p = 0.04). Relative to boys with BLLs < 2 μg/dL, adjusted mean IGF-1 concentrations decreased by 12.8 ng/mL (95% CI: –29.9, 4.4) for boys with BLLs of 3–4 μg/dL; 34.5 ng/mL (95% CI: –53.1, –16.0) for BLLs 5–9 μg/dL; and 60.4 ng/mL (95% CI: –90.9, –29.9) for BLLs ≥ 10 μg/dL. Conclusions: In peripubertal boys with low-level lead exposure, higher BLLs were associated with lower serum IGF-1. Inhibition of the hypothalamic–pituitary–growth axis may be one possible pathway by which lead exposure leads to growth delay

Association of blood lead levels with onset of puberty in Russian boys

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies suggest a temporal trend of earlier onset and longer duration of puberty, raising concerns regarding the potential impact of environmental factors on pubertal development. Lead exposure has been associated with delayed pubertal onset in girls; however, epidemiologic data in boys are limited. METHODS: We used multivariable logistic regression models to explore the cross-sectional association of blood lead levels with growth and pubertal onset based on physician-assessed testicular volume (TV) and pubertal staging in 489 boys 8-9 years of age from Chapaevsk, Russia. We used multivariable linear regression models to assess associations of blood lead levels with somatic growth at the study entry visit. RESULTS: The median (25th-75th percentile) blood lead level was 3 microg/dL (2-5 microg/dL). Height, weight, body mass index, birth weight, and gestational age were predictive of the onset of puberty as assessed either by TV (\u3e 3 mL), genitalia stage (G2), or both. Blood lead level was inversely associated with height (p \u3c 0.001) and weight (p = 0.06) after adjustment for birth weight, gestational age, and age at examination. In multivariable adjusted analyses, boys with blood lead levels \u3e or = 5 microg/dL had 43% reduced odds of having entered G2 compared with those with lower levels (odds ratio = 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.95, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Relatively low environmental blood lead levels were associated with decreased growth and differences in pubertal onset in periadolescent Russian boys. Future analyses of this prospective cohort will address pubertal onset and progression in relation to lead and other environmental chemicals

Association of Blood Lead Levels with Onset of Puberty in Russian Boys

Background: Epidemiologic studies suggest a temporal trend of earlier onset and longer duration of puberty, raising concerns regarding the potential impact of environmental factors on pubertal development. Lead exposure has been associated with delayed pubertal onset in girls; however, epidemiologic data in boys are limited. Methods: We used multivariable logistic regression models to explore the cross-sectional association of blood lead levels with growth and pubertal onset based on physician-assessed testicular volume (TV) and pubertal staging in 489 boys 8–9 years of age from Chapaevsk, Russia. We used multivariable linear regression models to assess associations of blood lead levels with somatic growth at the study entry visit. Results: The median (25th–75th percentile) blood lead level was 3 μg/dL (2–5 μg/dL). Height, weight, body mass index, birth weight, and gestational age were predictive of the onset of puberty as assessed either by TV (greater than 3 mL), genitalia stage (G2), or both. Blood lead level was inversely associated with height (p less than 0.001) and weight (p = 0.06) after adjustment for birth weight, gestational age, and age at examination. In multivariable adjusted analyses, boys with blood lead levels ≥ 5 μg/dL had 43% reduced odds of having entered G2 compared with those with lower levels (odds ratio = 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.34–0.95, p = 0.03). Conclusions: Relatively low environmental blood lead levels were associated with decreased growth and differences in pubertal onset in periadolescent Russian boys. Future analyses of this prospective cohort will address pubertal onset and progression in relation to lead and other environmental chemicals

Antibodies to Enteroviruses in Cerebrospinal Fluid of Patients with Acute Flaccid Myelitis.

Acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) has caused motor paralysis in &gt;560 children in the United States since 2014. The temporal association of enterovirus (EV) outbreaks with increases in AFM cases and reports of fever, respiratory, or gastrointestinal illness prior to AFM in &gt;90% of cases suggest a role for infectious agents. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from 14 AFM and 5 non-AFM patients with central nervous system (CNS) diseases in 2018 were investigated by viral-capture high-throughput sequencing (VirCapSeq-VERT system). These CSF and serum samples, as well as multiple controls, were tested for antibodies to human EVs using peptide microarrays. EV RNA was confirmed in CSF from only 1 adult AFM case and 1 non-AFM case. In contrast, antibodies to EV peptides were present in CSF of 11 of 14 AFM patients (79%), significantly higher than controls, including non-AFM patients (1/5 [20%]), children with Kawasaki disease (0/10), and adults with non-AFM CNS diseases (2/11 [18%]) (P = 0.023, 0.0001, and 0.0028, respectively). Six of 14 CSF samples (43%) and 8 of 11 sera (73%) from AFM patients were immunoreactive to an EV-D68-specific peptide, whereas the three control groups were not immunoreactive in either CSF (0/5, 0/10, and 0/11; P = 0.008, 0.0003, and 0.035, respectively) or sera (0/2, 0/8, and 0/5; P = 0.139, 0.002, and 0.009, respectively).IMPORTANCE The presence in cerebrospinal fluid of antibodies to EV peptides at higher levels than non-AFM controls supports the plausibility of a link between EV infection and AFM that warrants further investigation and has the potential to lead to strategies for diagnosis and prevention of disease

Carnegie Hubble Program: A Mid-Infrared Calibration of the Hubble Constant

Using a mid-infrared calibration of the Cepheid distance scale based on recent observations at 3.6 um with the Spitzer Space Telescope, we have obtained a new, high-accuracy calibration of the Hubble constant. We have established the mid-IR zero point of the Leavitt Law (the Cepheid Period-Luminosity relation) using time-averaged 3.6 um data for ten high-metallicity, Milky Way Cepheids having independently-measured trigonometric parallaxes. We have adopted the slope of the PL relation using time-averaged 3.6 um data for 80 long-period Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) Cepheids falling in the period range 0.8 < log(P) < 1.8. We find a new reddening-corrected distance to the LMC of 18.477 +/- 0.033 (systematic) mag. We re-examine the systematic uncertainties in H0, also taking into account new data over the past decade. In combination with the new Spitzer calibration, the systematic uncertainty in H0 over that obtained by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Key Project has decreased by over a factor of three. Applying the Spitzer calibration to the Key Project sample, we find a value of H0 = 74.3 with a systematic uncertainty of +/-2.1 (systematic) km/s/Mpc, corresponding to a 2.8% systematic uncertainty in the Hubble constant. This result, in combination with WMAP7 measurements of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies and assuming a flat universe, yields a value of the equation of state for dark energy, w0 = -1.09 +/- 0.10. Alternatively, relaxing the constraints on flatness and the numbers of relativistic species, and combining our results with those of WMAP7, Type Ia supernovae and baryon acoustic oscillations yields w0 = -1.08 +/- 0.10 and a value of N_eff = 4.13 +/- 0.67, mildly consistent with the existence of a fourth neutrino species.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap