Accession of Black Sea Region Wheat Producers to the WTO: Implications for World Wheat Trade

Wheat trade accounts for one third of world grain trade and is expected to double by 2050.The KRU (Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine) countries account for approximately a quarter of the world wheat exports and are collectively considered one of the key wheat exporting regions. Ukraine became a member of the WTO only in 2008. Russia became an official member of the WTO in 2012. Kazakhstan is expected to follow Russia and reach an accession deal with WTO members shortly. As a result of WTO accession, all three countries will be entitled to “most favoured nation” (MNF tariffs), and hence, gain improved access to a number of important markets that have been largely inaccessible due to very high tariffs that could be charged on imports from non-member countries. World wheat trade liberalization, reflecting the move to the MFN tariff as a result of accession, was simulated using the global simulation model (GSIM). The KRU region’s increased market accessibility as a result of successful accession to the WTO has the potential to foster important re-alignments in world wheat trade flows, prices and changes in welfare among major wheat trading countries. Simulation results suggest that increased access to markets leads to more trade between KRU countries and previously restricted markets. KRU countries trade more with now freer markets such as Turkey, the EU and China. Major traditional wheat exporters such as Australia, Canada, the EU, and the US do not seem to be negatively impacted to any important degree. Their relative market access conditions, however, erode in Turkish, Middle Eastern, and African markets with their trade flows being diverted and broadly distributed among other countries and regions at reduced prices. Trade liberalization is not uniform across regions and therefore leads to different net welfare changes across countries. However, those welfare changes appear to be modest

Regulations, Value Chains and Food Standards in Developing Countries: Panel Data Evidence from India

Rapid growth in dairy consumption and food scandals in India in the 2000s increased awareness of food safety issues among consumers and policymakers. This led to the introduction of new standards. However, there is little information about how they affected farm-level activities and whether value chains played any role. Our paper addresses these questions using a two-round panel survey of dairy farms in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh. We find significant improvements in adoption of farm-level hygienic practices, especially in Punjab. Value chain innovations do not play a significant role in stimulating safety and quality improvements among dairy smallholders in India

Agricultural development, technology and value chains in developing and transition countries.

This thesis is about agricultural development, technology adoption and value chains in developing countries. It first focuses on the transition economies of Central Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe before exploring the dairy market in India. Though they display great heterogeneity, what joins these two regions is a strong dependency on their respective agricultural sectors to alleviate poverty and maintain food security. The first part of this thesis centers around agricultural developments in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In spite of their common institutional history, the ECA countries differ greatly in terms of their economic development, geography, culture, political systems, food security, agricultural systems and potential. Over the last three decades, these countries have all experienced major economic and institutional changes, which have had profound effects on land use, food production, and transformed their food and agricultural value chains. Although they departed from a common starting point, these countries grew in vastly different directions after gaining independence. We examine the potential of major food producers and large exporters to act as a "breadbasket" for the world as well as their export reliability for food importing countries. Food security throughout the region has improved on the whole as incomes grow, although the poorest countries continue to face issues of poverty and food insecurity. However, a new problem now looms on the horizon—as incomes grow, ECA countries, like many other parts of the world, are now facing the triple burden of malnutrition: an overlap between undernutrition, micronutrient deficiency, and overweight and obesity. We analyze the evolution of smallholder farms during transition and the ways in which the process differed across countries and commodities. Smallholders in agriculture play different roles in the various transition countries and this diversity can be attributed to a combination of factors. These include capital, labor and land endowments, income levels, scale economies, market imperfections, and reform choices. Over the past decade, the share of smallholders in land use and production has declined significantly across all transition countries and this is most likely to continue in the future. We look at the adoption of Bt cotton in Central Asia. Probably the most successful story of genetically modified (GM) crops is that of cotton, especially among poor smallholders, and almost three quarters of the global cotton area is now covered with GM cotton. However, none of the Central Asian cotton producers (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan) use GM cotton. This is surprising given that Central Asia is an important cotton producing and exporting region. There are a number of possible reasons for this, but ultimately none of them appear convincing. The most likely explanation also happens to be the most trivial: there is limited local demand for Bt technology due to low pest infestation. Part two of this focuses on India. Using a unique two-round representative panel survey of dairy farms in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh (AP) we analyze issues related to technology adoption and value chains. (Global) value chains have contributed to agricultural technology adoption in transition countries and food export commodities in developing countries through various forms of vertical coordination, often associated with FDI. However, not much is known about how value chains do (not) affect technology transfer and/or adoption in food chains in developing countries. While important increases in the adoption of some technologies among traditional and poor dairy farms are found, the role of vertical coordination in value chains in stimulating this technology adoption seems to be minor, both for domestic and for FDI companies. The role of value chains in the dissemination of these technologies to small dairy farmers remains insignificant in AP as well. Rapid growth in dairy consumption and food scandals in India in the 2000s increased the awareness of food safety issues among consumers and policymakers. This led to the Food Safety and Standards Act (FSSA), and the Food Safety and Standards Authority. There is little information about how new public and private standards have affected farm-level activities that impact food safety and quality and how value chain innovations have affected this. We address these questions and find significant improvements in the adoption of farm-level hygienic practices, especially in Punjab. Value chain innovations do not play a significant role in stimulating safety and quality improvements of dairy smallholders in India. We also look at changes with respect to marketing channels in Punjab, India. The importance of informal channels has grown over the two periods, contrary to the expectation that general growth in the production and consumption of dairy is more likely to be associated with increased formality. Our results suggest that several factors are at play, including an increase in off-farm employment opportunities, specifically for males, growth in demand, and possibly a shift towards larger producers. We provide one of the first and most detailed accounts of the newly emerging large dairy farms that are being overlooked in the mainstream literature despite their apparent importance for the Indian dairy sector. We conducted 49 interviews throughout Punjab and found that these large commercial modern farms appear to be very well integrated into the value chains. They often, but not exclusively, sell milk to formal supply chains, sometimes on a contractual basis. Understanding and acknowledging the emergence of these modern dairy farms is a very important piece in understanding the development of value chains not only in the dairy sector in India, but domestic food sectors in developing countries in general.status: publishe

Smallholder agriculture in transition economies

© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd In this paper, we analyse how smallholder farms have evolved during the transition process in former communist countries and how this process has differed across countries and commodities. The role of smallholders in agriculture differs among transition countries, and this diversity is due to a combination of factors, including capital, labour and land endowments, income levels, scale economies, market imperfections, and reform choices. Institutions to access inputs and sell outputs affect the efficiency and survival of smallholders. In the past decade, the share of smallholders in land use and production has declined significantly as younger and more dynamic smallholders have become integrated in modern value chains, whereas older, less dynamic farmers have (semi-)retired, producing only for household consumption.status: publishe

The Accession of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine to the WTO: What will it Mean for the World Trade in Wheat?

International trade in wheat accounts for approximately one third of world grain trade and is expected to double by 2050.The KRU (Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine) countries account for approximately a quarter of world wheat exports and are collectively considered one of the key wheat exporting regions. The Ukraine became a member of the WTO only in 2008. Russia became an official member of the WTO in 2012 and Kazakhstan is expected to follow Russia and reach an accession deal with WTO members shortly. As a result of WTO accession, all three countries will be entitled to “most favoured nation” (MFN tariffs), and hence, gain improved access to a number of important markets that have been largely inaccessible due to very high tariffs that could be charged on imports from non-WTO countries. World wheat trade liberalization, reflecting the move to the MFN tariff as a result of accession, was simulated using the global simulation model (GSIM). The KRU region’s increased market accessibility as a result of successful accession to the WTO has the potential to foster important re-alignments in world wheat trade flows, prices and changes in welfare among major wheat trading countries. The simulation results suggest that the change to MFN tariffs leads to KRU countries trading more with now freer markets such as Turkey, the EU and China. Major traditional wheat exporters such as Australia, Canada, the EU, and the US do not seem to be negatively impacted to any important degree. Their relative market access conditions, however, erode in Turkish, Middle Eastern, and North African markets with their exports being diverted and broadly distributed among other countries and regions at marginally reduced prices. Trade liberalization is not uniform across regions and, hence, leads to different net welfare changes across countries. Those welfare changes, however, appear to be modest

Food and nutrition security in Eurasia: Evolution, shocks and policies

Food and nutrition security is at the forefront of policy making around the globe. This study focuses on a number of Eurasian countries, namely the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. From under-nutrition to various forms of malnutrition and obesity, these countries face different challenges when it comes to food and nutrition security. Over the last three decades, their situations have been affected by a number of important income shocks, including through falling remittances from relatively wealthier to poorer countries. This paper analyzes these developments and discusses how these countries have introduced policies to address food and nutrition security

Technology Adoption, Vertical Coordination in Value Chains, and FDI in Developing Countries: Panel Evidence from the Dairy Sector in India (Punjab)

(Global) value chains have contributed to agricultural technology adoption in transition countries and food export commodities in developing countries through various forms of vertical coordination, often associated with FDI. Adoption of modern technologies in agriculture is crucial for improving the productivity and welfare of poor farmers. Much less is known about how (global) value chains do (not) affect technology transfer and/or adoption in staple food chains in developing countries, and the role that FDI plays. Our paper analyses the role of value chains and FDI in farm-level technology adoption with the use of panel data from representative farm surveys in 2008 and 2015 (a period of rapid growth) in the dairy sector in India (Punjab). We find important increases in the adoption of some technologies among traditional and poor dairy farms. However, the role of vertical coordination in value chains in stimulating technology adoption among these traditional dairy farmers seems to be minor, both for domestic and for FDI companies. At the same time a sub-sector of dynamic modern dairy farms has emerged. These farms are much larger, use only modern technology, and are fully integrated in vertically coordinated value chains that support these modern farms' management and investments.status: publishe

Food and nutrition security in Eurasia: Evolution, shocks and policies

Food and nutrition security is at the forefront of policy making around the globe. This study focuses on a number of Eurasian countries, namely the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. From under-nutrition to various forms of malnutrition and obesity, these countries face different challenges when it comes to food and nutrition security. Over the last three decades, their situations have been affected by a number of important income shocks, including through falling remittances from relatively wealthier to poorer countries. This paper analyzes these developments and discusses how these countries have introduced policies to address food and nutrition security.status: publishe

Technology Adoption and Value Chains in Developing Countries: Panel Evidence from Dairy in Punjab

The adoption of modern technologies in agriculture is crucial for improving the productivity and welfare of poor farmers in developing countries. Not much is known about how value chains do (not) affect technology transfer and/or adoption in domestic food chains in developing countries. Our paper analyzes farm-level technology adoption in the dairy chain in Punjab, India, combining quantitative panel data from representative surveys in 2008 and 2015 with data from targeted interviews with emerging modern dairy farms. Between 2008 and 2015 there were important increases in technology adoption in the form of better hygienic practices, better feed and improved livestock among traditional dairy farms. Especially those farms which lagged behind in 2008 improved their technology. However, the role of vertical coordination in value chains in stimulating technology adoption among these traditional dairy farmers seems to be minor. In contrast, we document the emergence of a group of dynamic modern dairy farms which are much larger, only use modern technology, and are fully integrated in vertically coordinated value chains which support these modern farms' management and investments.status: publishe