Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050

Seasonal variations of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by age, gender, and socioeconomic condition in urban and rural areas of Bangladesh

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mortality exhibits seasonal variations, which to a certain extent can be considered as mid-to long-term influences of meteorological conditions. In addition to atmospheric effects, the seasonal pattern of mortality is shaped by non-atmospheric determinants such as environmental conditions or socioeconomic status. Understanding the influence of season and other factors is essential when seeking to implement effective public health measures. The pressures of climate change make an understanding of the interdependencies between season, climate and health especially important.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study investigated daily death counts collected within the Sample Vital Registration System (VSRS) established by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The sample was stratified by location (urban vs. rural), gender and socioeconomic status. Furthermore, seasonality was analyzed for all-cause mortality, and several cause-specific mortalities. Daily deviation from average mortality was calculated and seasonal fluctuations were elaborated using non parametric spline smoothing. A seasonality index for each year of life was calculated in order to assess the age-dependency of seasonal effects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found distinctive seasonal variations of mortality with generally higher levels during the cold season. To some extent, a rudimentary secondary summer maximum could be observed. The degree and shape of seasonality changed with the cause of death as well as with location, gender, and SES and was strongly age-dependent. Urban areas were seen to be facing an increased summer mortality peak, particularly in terms of cardiovascular mortality. Generally, children and the elderly faced stronger seasonal effects than youths and young adults.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study clearly demonstrated the complex and dynamic nature of seasonal impacts on mortality. The modifying effect of spatial and population characteristics were highlighted. While tropical regions have been, and still are, associated with a marked excess of mortality in summer, only a weakly pronounced secondary summer peak could be observed for Bangladesh, possibly due to the reduced incidence of diarrhoea-related fatalities. These findings suggest that Bangladesh is undergoing an epidemiological transition from summer to winter excess mortality, as a consequence of changes in socioeconomic conditions and health care provision.</p

Defining and predicting heat waves in Bangladesh

This paper proposes a heat-wave definition for Bangladesh that could be used to trigger preparedness measures in a heat early warning system (HEWS) and explores the climate mechanisms associated with heat waves. A HEWS requires a definition of heat waves that is both related to human health outcomes and forecastable. No such definition has been developed for Bangladesh. Using a generalized additive regression model, a heat-wave definition is proposed that requires elevated minimum and maximum daily temperatures over the 95th percentile for 3 consecutive days, confirming the importance of nighttime conditions for health impacts. By this definition, death rates increase by about 20% during heat waves; this result can be used as an argument for public-health interventions to prevent heat-related deaths. Furthermore, predictability of these heat waves exists from weather to seasonal time scales, offering opportunities for a range of preparedness measures. Heat waves are associated with an absence of normal premonsoonal rainfall brought about by anomalously strong low-level westerly winds and weak southerlies, detectable up to approximately 10 days in advance. This circulation pattern occurs over a background of drier-than-normal conditions, with below-average soil moisture and precipitation throughout the heat-wave season from April to June. Low soil moisture increases the odds of heat-wave occurrence for 10–30 days, indicating that subseasonal forecasts of heat-wave risk may be possible by monitoring soil-moisture conditions

Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting well eing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” is provided in this record*

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990–2019 : an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution. Methods: We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure–response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68–4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117–223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49–17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73–17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22–9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81–8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5. Interpretation: Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record*

Association between malaria and household air pollution interventions in a predominantly rural area of Ghana

Background Though anecdotal evidence suggests that smoke from HAP has a repellent effect on mosquitoes, very little work has been done to assess the effect of biomass smoke on malaria infection. The study, therefore, sought to investigate the hypothesis that interventions to reduce household biomass smoke may have an unintended consequence of increasing placental malaria or increase malaria infection in the first year of life. Methods This provides evidence from a randomized controlled trial among 1414 maternal-infant pairs in the Kintampo North and Kintampo South administrative areas of Ghana. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between study intervention assignment (LPG, Biolite or control) and placental malaria. Finally, an extended Cox model was used to assess the association between study interventions and all episodes of malaria parasitaemia in the first year of infant’s life. Results The prevalence of placental malaria was 24.6%. Out of this, 20.8% were acute infections, 18.7% chronic infections and 60.5% past infections. The study found no statistical significant association between the study interventions and all types of placental malaria (OR = 0.88; 95% CI 0.59–1.30). Of the 1165 infants, 44.6% experienced at least one episode of malaria parasitaemia in the first year of life. The incidence of first and/or only episode of malaria parasitaemia was however found to be similar among the study arms. Conclusion The findings suggest that cookstove interventions for pregnant women and infants, when combined with additional malaria prevention strategies, do not lead to an increased risk of malaria among pregnant women and infants

Association between malaria and household air pollution interventions in a predominantly rural area of Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Though anecdotal evidence suggests that smoke from HAP has a repellent effect on mosquitoes, very little work has been done to assess the effect of biomass smoke on malaria infection. The study, therefore, sought to investigate the hypothesis that interventions to reduce household biomass smoke may have an unintended consequence of increasing placental malaria or increase malaria infection in the first year of life. METHODS: This provides evidence from a randomized controlled trial among 1414 maternal-infant pairs in the Kintampo North and Kintampo South administrative areas of Ghana. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between study intervention assignment (LPG, Biolite or control) and placental malaria. Finally, an extended Cox model was used to assess the association between study interventions and all episodes of malaria parasitaemia in the first year of infant's life. RESULTS: The prevalence of placental malaria was 24.6%. Out of this, 20.8% were acute infections, 18.7% chronic infections and 60.5% past infections. The study found no statistical significant association between the study interventions and all types of placental malaria (OR = 0.88; 95% CI 0.59-1.30). Of the 1165 infants, 44.6% experienced at least one episode of malaria parasitaemia in the first year of life. The incidence of first and/or only episode of malaria parasitaemia was however found to be similar among the study arms. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that cookstove interventions for pregnant women and infants, when combined with additional malaria prevention strategies, do not lead to an increased risk of malaria among pregnant women and infants

Prenatal Household Air Pollution Alters Cord Blood Mononuclear Cell Mitochondrial DNA Copy Number: Sex-Specific Associations.

BACKGROUND: Associations between prenatal household air pollution (HAP) exposure or cookstove intervention to reduce HAP and cord blood mononuclear cell (CBMC) mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid copy number (mtDNAcn), an oxidative stress biomarker, are unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Pregnant women were recruited and randomized to one of two cookstove interventions, including a clean-burning liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stove, or control. Prenatal HAP exposure was determined by serial, personal carbon monoxide (CO) measurements. CBMC mtDNAcn was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Multivariable linear regression determined associations between prenatal CO and cookstove arm on mtDNAcn. Associations between mtDNAcn and birth outcomes and effect modification by infant sex were explored. RESULTS: LPG users had the lowest CO exposures (p = 0.02 by ANOVA). In boys only, average prenatal CO was inversely associated with mtDNAcn (β = -14.84, SE = 6.41, p = 0.03, per 1ppm increase in CO). When examined by study arm, LPG cookstove had the opposite effect in all children (LPG β = 19.34, SE = 9.72, p = 0.049), but especially boys (β = 30.65, SE = 14.46, p = 0.04), as compared to Control. Increased mtDNAcn was associated with improved birth outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Increased prenatal HAP exposure reduces CBMC mtDNAcn, suggesting cumulative prenatal oxidative stress injury. An LPG stove intervention may reverse this effect. Boys appear most susceptible

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. METHODS: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths. INTERPRETATION: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Prenatal household air pollutant exposure is associated with reduced size and gestational age at birth among a cohort of Ghanaian infants.

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight and prematurity are important risk factors for death and disability, and may be affected by prenatal exposure to household air pollution (HAP). METHODS: We investigate associations between maternal exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) during pregnancy and birth outcomes (birth weight, birth length, head circumference, gestational age, low birth weight, small for gestational age, and preterm birth) among 1288 live-born infants in the Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study (GRAPHS). We evaluate whether evidence of malaria during pregnancy, as determined by placental histopathology, modifies these associations. RESULTS: We observed effects of CO on birth weight, birth length, and gestational age that were modified by placental malarial status. Among infants from pregnancies without evidence of placental malaria, each 1 ppm increase in CO was associated with reduced birth weight (-53.4 g [95% CI: -84.8, -21.9 g]), birth length (-0.3 cm [-0.6, -0.1 cm]), gestational age (-1.0 days [-1.8, -0.2 days]), and weight-for-age Z score (-0.08 standard deviations [-0.16, -0.01 standard deviations]). These associations were not observed in pregnancies with evidence of placental malaria. Each 1 ppm increase in maternal exposure to CO was associated with elevated odds of low birth weight (LBW, OR 1.14 [0.97, 1.33]) and small for gestational age (SGA, OR 1.14 [0.98, 1.32]) among all infants. CONCLUSIONS: Even modest reductions in exposure to HAP among pregnant women could yield substantial public health benefits, underscoring a need for interventions to effectively reduce exposure. Adverse associations with HAP were discernible only among those without evidence of placental malaria, a key driver of impaired fetal growth in this malaria-endemic area