A New Nonlinear Unit Root Test with Fourier Function

Traditional unit root tests display a tendency to be nonstationary in the case of structural breaks and nonlinearity. To eliminate this problem this paper proposes a new flexible Fourier form nonlinear unit root test. This test eliminates this problem to add structural breaks and nonlinearity together to the test procedure. In this test procedure, structural breaks are modeled by means of a Fourier function and nonlinear adjustment is modeled by means of an Exponential Smooth Threshold Autoregressive (ESTAR) model. The simulation results indicate that the proposed unit root test is more powerful than the Kruse (2011) and KSS(2003) tests

A Flexible Fourier Form Nonlinear Unit Root Test Based on ESTAR Model

This study suggests a new nonlinear unit root test procedure with Fourier function. In this test procedure, structural breaks are modeled by means of a Fourier function and nonlinear adjustment is modeled by means of an Exponential Smooth Threshold Autoregressive (ESTAR) model. The Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that the proposed test has good size and power properties. This test eliminates the problems of over-acceptance of the null of nonstationarity to allow multiple smooth temporary breaks and nonlinearity together into the test procedure

An Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve For Japanese Economy

DergiPark: 829913trakyaiibfJapanese economy achieved a rapid economic development process for the period of 1950-1980 with environmental problems. By the by mid 1970s, Japan introduced important environmental regulatory reforms and environ- mental clean-up reforms. However, Japan faced challenged both environ- mental problems and economic stagnation since 1990s. In this study, Environmental Kuznets curve is analysed for Japanese economy for the period 1960 to 2010 using annual data by using cointegration test with structural breaks by developed Maki (2012). Environmental Kuz- nets curve means there is an inverted-U relationship between environmental degradation and income per capita. In the study it is found that the N-shaped Kuznets curve confirmed for Japanese economy for the period

The Effects of Car Production on the Foreign Trade Deficit of Turkey: Threshold Error Correction Model

DergiPark: 326705trakyasobedBu çalışmada Türkiye’nin dış ticaret açığı sorununun çözümü için otomotivüretiminin etkin olarak kullanılıp kullanılamayacağı Ocak 1992 ve Ağustos 2011dönemi arasındaki veriler kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmada Hansen ve Seo(2002) tarafından geliştirilen eşik değerli hata düzeltme modeli ve Li(2006)tarafından geliştirilen eşik değerli Granger nedensellik yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında otomotiv üretimini arttırarak dış ticaret açığını kapatmak kısmen mümkün olacaktır. Otomotiv sektörü Türkiye açısından büyük önem taşısa da, dış ticaret açığını şuanki konumuyla tek başına kapatması mümkün değildirThis paper examines whether cars production can be used to close the foreigntrade deficit of Turkey by using the data over the period from January 1992 toAugust 2011. Threshold error correction model introduced by Hansen andSeo(2002) and threshold Granger causality test introduced by Li(2006) are used. Itcan be concluded that automotive sector is important for Turkish economy but it isinadequate instrument to close the foreign trade deficit of Turke

An Aggregate Import Demand Function for Turkey: The Bounds Testing Approach

This study investigates the aggregate import demand behavior for Turkey using the bounds test procedure by Pesaran et. al. (2001) which is based on the estimate of an Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM). This technique generates robust short and long run estimates in small samples, where the integration of the variables are unknown. Using annual data over the period 1982-2002, the results of the bounds test indicate that there is a long run relationship among import demand, real income and relative prices for Turkey. Moreover, the dummy variable employed to investigate the effect of Turkey’s European Customs Union membership on import demand. The results showed the dummy variable is statistically significant and positive. The findings suggest that Customs Union has increased the import demand of Turkey.Publisher's Versio

The Analysis of Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis’S Validity in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

DergiPark: 326231trakyasobedTourism is one of the important service sectors of a country, enabling it to earn the gain in economic, social and cultural fields. For this reason, especially the relationship between tourism and the growth has been an important research area for researchers. In this study, the tourism-led growth hypothesis, which defense the thesis of tourism sector’s impact on economic growth, will be under investigation. In tourism-led growth hypothesis are given reasons that tourism development is important determinant for the long-term economic growth. This study is examining whether this hypothesis is valid for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus or not, by using data over the period 1977-2008 through the bounds test and the TodaYamamoto causality test. The results obtained show that the tourism-led growth hypothesis is not valid for the Turkish Republic of Northern CyprusTurizm bir ülkenin ekonomik, sosyal ve kültürel alanlarda kazanım elde etmesini sağlayan önemli hizmet sektörlerinden biridir. Bu nedenle özellikle turizm ve büyüme arasındaki ilişki araştırmacılar için önemli bir araştırma konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada turizm sektörünün ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkili olacağı tezini savunan turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezi araştırılmaktadır. Turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinde turizmdeki gelişmenin uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümenin önemli belirleyicisi olduğuna ilişkin nedenler ileri sürülmektedir. Bu hipotezin Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti için geçerli olup olmadığı, 1977-2008 dönemi verileri kullanarak Sınır Testi ve Toda – Yamamoto Nedensellik testi ile incelenmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti için turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerli olmadığını göstermektedi

Do military expenditures converge in NATO countries? Linear and nonlinear unit root test evidence

It is a public service that states defend their countries against internal and external threats. Military expenditures are made to this end. Although military expenditures contribute to economy, a safe environment is important for economic development. Military expenditures hold an important place within overall expenditures of countries. Although military expenditures and their share within GDP differ, they hold an important place within total public expenditures of countries. However, there aren’t many studies on military expenditures in literature. We tested the convergence hypothesis of military expenditures for NATO countries covering a period from 1953 to 2014 by using linear and nonlinear unit root tests. According to the findings, the conclusion is that the military expenditures of Germany, Greece, Portugal, the UK and Luxembourg converge to the NATO mean whereas the convergence hypothesis does not hold true for other NATO countries