GOVERNMENT POLICY, WIND EROSION, AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY IN SEMI-ARID AGRICULTURE: THE CASE OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS HIGH PLAINS

The 1996 farm bill challenges agricultural producers to pursue conservation objectives while allowing flexibility and reducing subsidies. The nature of this challenge for semi-arid rainfed, wind-erosion-prone agriculture is explored via a behavioral model. Simulations of farm-firm decision making under scenarios in the southern Texas High Plains are evaluated. Results indicate that the removal of subsidies, while lowering farm incomes, does not, under most assumptions, alter cropping system choice. Alternatively, under a variety of assumptions, the imposition of an erosion tax shuts down cropping.Conservation practices, Cropping system choice, Economic dynamics, FAIR Act of 1996, Agricultural and Food Policy,

STEMteach: Preparing the Next Generation of Mathematics and Science Teachers

With an increasing demand for individuals prepared in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM), one university responded to this call by changing its teacher preparation program. Better-prepared mathematics and science teachers have the opportunity to engage and excite students, thereby preparing and promoting more of them to enter the STEM professions. The described program is a replication of the national UTeach model that recruits content majors in mathematics and science to explore the teaching profession during a first-semester course that includes an early field experience in the elementary grades. This field experience is designed to be engaging for both the teacher education candidates and the elementary students in an effort to demonstrate the joy of teaching and to retain the candidates in the program. The ultimate goal of the program is to increase the production of quality secondary mathematics and science teachers who can transfer their own deep understanding of their content to students so that these students will be career and college ready in the STEM disciplines

Contamination cannot explain the lack of large-scale power in the cosmic microwave background radiation

Several anomalies appear to be present in the large-angle cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy maps of WMAP. One of these is a lack of large-scale power. Because the data otherwise match standard models extremely well, it is natural to consider perturbations of the standard model as possible explanations. We show that, as long as the source of the perturbation is statistically independent of the source of the primary CMB anisotropy, no such model can explain this large-scale power deficit. On the contrary, any such perturbation always reduces the probability of obtaining any given low value of large-scale power. We rigorously prove this result when the lack of large-scale power is quantified with a quadratic statistic, such as the quadrupole moment. When a statistic based on the integrated square of the correlation function is used instead, we present strong numerical evidence in support of the result. The result applies to models in which the geometry of spacetime is perturbed (e.g., an ellipsoidal Universe) as well as explanations involving local contaminants, undiagnosed foregrounds, or systematic errors. Because the large-scale power deficit is arguably the most significant of the observed anomalies, explanations that worsen this discrepancy should be regarded with great skepticism, even if they help in explaining other anomalies such as multipole alignments.Comment: 9 pages. Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Modeling highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in wild birds and poultry in West Bengal, India.

Wild birds are suspected to have played a role in highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in West Bengal. Cluster analysis showed that H5N1 was introduced in West Bengal at least 3 times between 2008 and 2010. We simulated the introduction of H5N1 by wild birds and their contact with poultry through a stochastic continuous-time mathematical model. Results showed that reducing contact between wild birds and domestic poultry, and increasing the culling rate of infected domestic poultry communities will reduce the probability of outbreaks. Poultry communities that shared habitat with wild birds or those indistricts with previous outbreaks were more likely to suffer an outbreak. These results indicate that wild birds can introduce HPAI to domestic poultry and that limiting their contact at shared habitats together with swift culling of infected domestic poultry can greatly reduce the likelihood of HPAI outbreaks

Temporal Change Within and Among Forest Communities of Great Smoky Mountains National Park: The Influence of Historic Disturbance and Environmental Gradients

Understanding how ecological communities change over time is critical for biodiversity conservation. However, few long-term studies directly address decadal-scale changes in the ecological communities of protected areas. In this study, we take advantage of a network of permanent forest plots, established in Great Smoky Mountains National Park in 1978, to investigate temporal changes in plant communities. In particular, we examine the factors that influence temporal change in species richness and composition within communities and temporal change in compositional similarity among communities. In 2007, we revisited 15 permanent plots that were logged in the late 1920s and 15 permanent plots that have no documented history of intensive human disturbance. In addition to differences in disturbance history, these plots varied in elevation and a variety of edaphic parameters. We found that understory species richness decreased by an average of 4.3 species over the 30-year study period in the logged plots, while understory richness remained relatively unchanged in the unlogged plots. In addition, tree density decreased by an average of 145 stems/ha in the logged plots but was relatively stable in the unlogged plots. Historic logging had no effect on within-site understory or tree compositional turnover. However, sites with higher soil pH had higher understory turnover and higher tree turnover than did sites with lower soil pH. In addition, sites at lower elevations and sites with lower understory productivity in 1978 had higher understory turnover than did sites at higher elevations and sites with higher understory productivity in 1978. Among-community similarity was unchanged from 1978 to 2007 in the understory communities and in the tree communities of both the logged and unlogged plots. Taken together, our results indicate that human disturbance can affect plant communities for decades following the disturbance event but that the extent of temporal change in community composition may depend more on environmental gradients than on the legacy of large-scale but short-lived historic disturbances, such as logging. In addition, our results suggest that variation in temporal turnover within communities may not necessarily translate into changes in compositional similarity among communities over time

Nutritional support for head-injured patients

Copyright John Wiley & Sons. This review is published as a Cochrane Review in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2004, Issue 3. Cochrane Reviews are regularly updated as new evidence emerges and in response to comments and criticisms, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews should be consulted for the most recent version of the Review.’ Perel, P. , Yanagawa, T. , Bunn, F. , Roberts, I. , Wentz, R. and Pierro, A. Nutritional support for head-injured patients. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2004, Issue 3. Art. No.: CD001530. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD001530.pub2Background: Head injury increases the body's metabolic responses, and therefore nutritional demands. Provision of an adequate supply of nutrients is associated with improved outcome. The best route for administering nutrition (parenterally (TPN) or enterally (EN)), and the best timing of administration (for example, early versus late) of nutrients needs to be established. Objectives: To quantify the effect on mortality and morbidity of alternative strategies of providing nutritional support following head injury. Search strategy: Trials were identified by computerised searches of the Cochrane Injuries Group specialised register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, National Research Register, Web of Science and other electronic trials registers. Reference lists of trials and review articles were checked. The searches were last updated in July 2006. Selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials of timing or route of nutritional support following acute traumatic brain injury. Data collection and analysis: Two authors independently abstracted data and assessed trial quality. Information was collected on death, disability, and incidence of infection. If trial quality was unclear, or if there were missing outcome data, trialists were contacted in an attempt to get further information. Main results: A total of 11 trials were included. Seven trials addressed the timing of support (early versus delayed), data on mortality were obtained for all seven trials (284 participants). The relative risk (RR) for death with early nutritional support was 0.67 (95% CI 0.41 to 1.07). Data on disability were available for three trials. The RR for death or disability at the end of follow-up was 0.75 (95% CI 0.50 to 1.11). Seven trials compared parenteral versus enteral nutrition. Because early support often involves parenteral nutrition, three of the trials are also included in the previous analyses. Five trials (207 participants) reported mortality. The RR for mortality at the end of follow-up period was 0.66 (0.41 to 1.07). Two trials provided data on death and disability. The RR was 0.69 (95% Cl 0.40 to 1.19). One trial compared gastric versus jejunal enteral nutrition, there were no deaths and the RR was not estimable. Authors' conclusions: This review suggests that early feeding may be associated with a trend towards better outcomes in terms of survival and disability. Further trials are required. These trials should report not only nutritional outcomes but also the effect on death and disability.Peer reviewe

A Stochastic Latent Moment Model for Electricity Price Formation

The wide range of models needed to support the various short-term operations for electricity generation demonstrates the importance of accurate specifications for the uncertainty in market prices. This is becoming increasingly challenging, since electricity hourly price densities exhibit a variety of shapes, with their characteristic features changing substantially within the day and over time, and the influx of renewable power, wind and solar in particular, has amplified these effects. A general-purpose, analytically tractable representation of the stochastic price formation process would have considerable value for operations control and trading, but existing empirical approaches for the application of standard density functions are unsatisfactory. We develop a general four parameter stochastic model for hourly prices, in which the four moments of the density function are dynamically estimated as latent state variables and furthermore modelled as functions of several plausible exogenous drivers. This provides a transparent and credible model that is suffciently flexible to capture the shape-shifting effects, particularly with respect to the wind and solar output variations causing dynamic switches in the upside and downside risks. Extensive testing on German wholesale price data, benchmarked against quantile regression and other models in out-of-sample backtesting, validated the approach and its analytical appeal

Mobile Computing in Physics Analysis - An Indicator for eScience

This paper presents the design and implementation of a Grid-enabled physics analysis environment for handheld and other resource-limited computing devices as one example of the use of mobile devices in eScience. Handheld devices offer great potential because they provide ubiquitous access to data and round-the-clock connectivity over wireless links. Our solution aims to provide users of handheld devices the capability to launch heavy computational tasks on computational and data Grids, monitor the jobs status during execution, and retrieve results after job completion. Users carry their jobs on their handheld devices in the form of executables (and associated libraries). Users can transparently view the status of their jobs and get back their outputs without having to know where they are being executed. In this way, our system is able to act as a high-throughput computing environment where devices ranging from powerful desktop machines to small handhelds can employ the power of the Grid. The results shown in this paper are readily applicable to the wider eScience community.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures. Presented at the 3rd Int Conf on Mobile Computing & Ubiquitous Networking (ICMU06. London October 200