Origins of the Maturity and Currency Mismatches in the Balance Sheet of Emerging Countries: a Theoretical Approach

The aim of this paper is to highlight the origins of the currency and maturity mismatches in the balance sheets of emerging countries. We show that short-term debt in the form of demandable debt works as a commitment device of the financial intermediary and as a form of protection of foreign lenders in a context of poor enforceability of contracts. The currency mismatch in the non-tradable sector is mainly viewed as a supply-side phenomenon. It results from the choice of foreign lenders whose anticipations of exchange rate risk overpass those of default of the banking and/or private sector following a real adverse shock. Finally, when it comes to simultaneously explain the maturity and the currency composition of debt, the paper shows that the short-term foreign currency denominated debt, with the option of early withdrawal of the demandable debt, allows investors to offset the debtor default risk if a currency depreciation occurs.maturity mismatch, currency mismatch, real exchange rate, international financial crises.

A Twin Crisis Model Inspired by the Asian Crisis

In this paper, we propose a twin crises synthetic model. We show that there may be multiple equilibria on the exchange market as well as on the international financial one and emphasize the possible connections between currency and financial crises. On the exchange market, the currency devaluation is the outcome of a trade-off by the government in presence of implicit safety nets of the banking sector. The crisis occurs whenever the anticipated devaluation rate by the market is equal to the "optimal" devaluation rate of the government. As far as the international financial market is concerned, the passage from one equilibrium to another is triggered by the evolution of the ratio Currency Reserves/Short Term Debt as a fundamental factor. Combining bank run dynamics and fundamental factors, we aim at reconciling the two major interpretations of currency and banking crises, namely the fragility of emerging financial systems and the ex-post worsening of domestic fundamentals originating in debtors or domestic government moral hazard.twin crises models, multiple equilibria, bank runs, capital flows

Exchange rate anchoring - Is there still a de facto US dollar standard?

The paper provides a measure of exchange rate anchoring behaviour across 149 emerging market and developing economies for the 1980-2010 period. An extension of the Frankel and Wei (2008) methodology is used to determine whether exchange rates are pegged or floating, and in the case of pegs, to which anchor currencies they are pegged. To capture the role of major currencies over time, an aggregate trade-weighted indicator is constructed based on exchange rate regimes of individual countries. The evolution of this aggregate indicator suggests that the US dollar has continuously dominated exchange rate regimes, despite some temporary decoupling during major financial crises. JEL Classification: F30, F31, F33de facto exchange rate regimes, emerging and developing economies, global currencies, international monetary system

Signals from housing and lending booms

The contribution of this paper is to revisit the Early Warning System (EWS) literature by analysing selected episodes of financial market crisis, i.e. those preceded by a spell of credit and real estate expansions. The aim is to disentangle instances when this constitutes a natural phenomenon associated with a process of financial development and innovation from those where it constitutes a worrisome signal. We identify economic variables that have leading indicator properties, thus helping to distinguish between “benign” episodes from those likely ending with downward pressures on the exchange rate or even a fully-fledged banking crisis. We find that a large current account deficit, a fall in price competitiveness, strong real growth and high public debt-to-GDP ratio increase the probability that a lending or housing boom would be accompanied by financial market tensions shortly after the peak. JEL Classification: E32, F31, F37credit booms, Early Warning System, Financial crises, House prices

PENGARUH PENERAPAN METODE PEMBELAJARAN KOOPERATIF LEARNING TIPE TEAMS GAMES TOURNAMENT (TGT) TERHADAP HASIL BELAJAR IPA PESERTA DIDIK DI MIN 14 BLITAR

Penelitian ini dilatar belakangi oleh proses belajar mengajar yang masih menggunakan pembelajaran konvensional. Peserta didik hanya mendengarkan penjelasan pendidik, menghafal materi dan kemudian disuruh mengerjakan tugas. Jika hal ini berlangsung secara terus menerus maka peserta didik akan bosan mengikuti kegiatan pembelajaran IPA dan mengakibatkan hasil belajar yang rendah. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui hasil belajar peserta didik sebelum menggunakan metode pembelajaran kooperatif learning tipe team games tournament dan juga mengetahui seberapa besar pengaruh penerapan metode pembelajaran kooperatif learning tipe teams games tournament pada mata pelajaran IPA. Penelitian ini menggunakan penelitian eksperimen. Dalam penelitian ini, terdapat dua variabel yaitu metode pembelajaran kooperatif learning tipe teams games tournament dan hasil belajar IPA peserta didik. Sampel diambil dengan teknik random. Sebelum melakukan uji hipotesis, terlebih dahulu melakukan uji prasyarat data yaitu uji normalitas dan uji homogenitas, pengujian hipotesisnya menggunakan uji-t. pada hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa ada pengaruh yang signifikan anatara metode pembelajaran kooperatif learning tipe teams games tournament terhadap hasil belajar IPA dengan hasil uji-t diperoleh Sig. (2-tailed) sebesar 0,000 < dari 0,05 maka H0 ditolak dan Ha diterima. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa ada pengaruh yang signifikan antara metode pembelajaran kooperatif learning tipe teams games tournament terhadap hasil belajar IPA

Determinants of government bond spreads in new EU countries

Based on a rich database of government bond spreads and macroeconomic indicators over the period 2001-2008, we propose an empirical assessment of the role of fundamentals in driving long-term sovereign bond spreads of the new EU countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia). The results of a dynamic panel error correction model that accounts for both common long-run determinants and cross-country heterogeneities in sovereign bond spreads tend to suggest that fundamentals still matter for market’s assessment of a country creditworthiness. Countries’ levels of external debt, fiscal and current account balances, exchange and inflation rates, their degree of trade openness as well as short-term interest rate spreads play an important role in the new EU countries’ access to long-term finance. We furthermore challenge the pooled mean approach in order to check whether other factors may become relevant in the long-run for two sub-groups of countries according to the developments in their current account balances. Fiscal fundamentals seem to matter most for one group of countries, those characterised by widening external imbalances and historically high levels of spreads. In a context of heightened risk aversion and potential for spill over effects, this group of countries are more exposed to domestic sources of vulnerability as well as to swings in market perceptions of sovereign risks. JEL Classification: G12, H60, E62long-term government bond spreads, new EU countries, pooled mean group estimation

Evaluation of monorail haulage systems in metalliferous underground mining

The decline is a major excavation in metalliferous mining since it provides the main means of access to the underground and serves as a haulage route for underground trucks. However, conventional mining of the decline to access the ore body poses economic and technical challenges that require innovative responses. The average cross-sectional area of mine declines in Australia is 5m wide x 5m high. The large excavations associated with current underground mining practices are economically and geotechnically inappropriate, especially for narrow vein mining conditions. The decline gradient of 1 in 7 (8[superscript]o) designed to accommodate truck haulage results in a significantly longer decline compared to a decline mined at a steeper gradient. Further, the current drill-blast-load-haul cycle does not allow rapid development of the decline to access the ore body since the cycle is made up of discontinuous segments. The use of diesel equipment poses health risks and increases ventilation requirements. The heat load and air borne exhaust contaminants emitted by large diesel engines create heavy demand on mine ventilation, sometimes resulting in substandard working conditions. As mines get deeper, there is a tendency to increase the truck and loader fleet – which results in traffic congestion in the decline. Metal prices in the recent boom may have helped to offset some of the shortcomings of current practices, and although the good times may continue, a down-turn could find many operations exposed. Federal government emissions trading scheme encourage mining companies to reduce carbon emissions in their operations.This study was prompted by the need to investigate the potential of the monorail haulage system in metalliferous mining, particularly in decline development and main haulage in view of shortcomings of the current practices. Monorail systems are being used in mines around the world for material transport and man-riding but their utility in rock transport has not been fully investigated. Hence, it is proposed to replace non-shaft component of the mine haulage system with roof/back mounted monorail technology using continuous conductor technology to provide competitive haulage rates in substantially smaller excavations at steeper gradient than is currently achievable. It is proposed that a suite of equipment can be adapted or modified to enable development of the decline supported by the monorail system.To this end, a drill system mounted on the monorail accompanied by a pneumatic system for loading rock into monorail containers is proposed. The proposed decline gradient for the monorail decline is 1 in 3 (or 20[superscript]0) with a cross-sectional area of 4m wide x 4m high. Decline dimensions of size 4.0m x 4.0m (minimum opening for monorail system is 3m x 3m) are used in this design in order to leave enough working space (underneath and on the sidewalls) and to accommodate other mine services, such as, ventilation tubing, air and water pipes and cables. Systems analysis, engineering economics and computer simulation are used to evaluate the feasibility of the monorail mining system for decline development. Technical data relating to the operation of monorail systems in underground mining was obtained from Solutions for Mining Transport (SMT) – Scharf, of Germany, a company that manufactures monorail systems. Monorail haulage has definite advantages over conventional haulage; these include the use of electrical power instead of diesel, steeper gradients (up to 36[superscript]0), smaller excavations, tighter horizontal and vertical turning radii and potential for automation. The concepts are applied to a narrow vein ore deposit with results indicating that the monorail system delivers significant savings in terms of time and cost of decline development in this specific application.Stability of the monorail drilling system is critical in ensuring high performance of the drilling system. Stabilisation of the system requires determination of the horizontal, vertical and lateral forces of the system. According to the findings, these forces depend on the vector position of the two drilling booms that will be mounted onto the monorail train. Therefore, the research provides minimum and maximum monorail system reaction forces in horizontal and vertical stabilisers that will stabilise the system during drilling operations. Because of the configuration and positioning of the monorail drilling system, the research has also shown that with appropriate swing angles and lifting angles that will enable the system to reach the whole drill face during drilling operations.Since pneumatic or suction system is used during loading process, the research has revealed that the density of rock fragments, rock fragmentation, conveying air velocity and the negative pressure of the system would greatly influence the loading time and power consumption of the system. Therefore, the study has determined optimum fragmentation of the pneumatic system for various conveying air velocities. Additionally, for the efficient operations of the system, a range of conveying air velocities that give optimal mass flow rate (mass flow rate that give shorter loading time) and optimal power consumption have been determined at maximum negative pressure of 60kPa (0.6 bars).Since the monorail drilling and loading systems move on the rail/monorail installed in the roof of the decline and supported by roof bolts, suspension chains and steel supports, the strength of the support system is critical. To avoid system failure, it is imperative that the force in each roof bolt, suspension chain and steel support capable of suspending the weight of the heaviest component of the system is determined. Through the models developed, this study has determined the minimum required strength of roof bolts, suspension chains and steel supports that can suspend and support the components of the drilling and loading systems.To increase the efficiency and improve the safety of the two systems, the automation design for monorail drilling and loading systems’ processes have been developed. The proposed automation system would increase productivity by improving operator performance through control of the two systems’ processes. It is hoped that automation of the monorail drilling and loading systems will reduce the total drill-load-haul cycle time hence improving the efficiency of the systems.The application of simulation techniques was deemed useful to determine the performance of the monorail system in mining operations. During modelling, a simulation programme was written using General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS/H) software and results of the simulation study were viewed and examined in PROOF animation software. According to simulation results, the monorail system will have the same advance rate as conventional method since both systems have one blast per shift. However, the total drill-blast-load-haul cycle time for the monorail system is lower than for conventional method.Since the monorail system poses health and safety challenges during operations, through risk analysis, this study has identified root factors that have the potential to cause monorail system risk and hazard failure. The research has revealed that lack of maintenance of the monorail system and the monorail installations, production pressure and insufficient training of personnel on monorail system use are the major root factors that have the potential to cause risk and hazard failure. In order to improve the health and safety of the system, the study has suggested risk and hazard control strategies which are aimed at reducing the level of risk by directing corrective measures at potential root causes as opposed to addressing the immediate obvious symptoms such as monorail falling from support system, monorail running out of control, and others.A mine design case study using a monorail technology was conducted using one of ‘South Deeps’ gold deposits of Jundee mine operations (owned by Newmont Mining Corporations). Nexus deposit, one of ‘South Deeps’ deposits, was selected as case study area. The case study indicates that development of decline access to Nexus deposits using monorail technology is feasible. Compared with conventional decline development, results have shown that the monorail system has the potential of reducing the decline length to Nexus deposits by over 62.6% and decline costs by 63% (i.e., spiral decline and straight incline from the portal only). Furthermore, the study indicates that with the monorail system, there is a potential of reducing the total capital development costs to Nexus deposit by 22% (i.e., cost of developing the spiral decline, straight incline from the portal, crosscuts, ventilation network and installation and purchase of monorail train). Also, due to shorter decline length coupled with smaller decline openings, the duration of decline development reduces by 71.8%

GAMBARAN PEMENUHAN KEBUTUHAN NUTRISI PADA LANSIA DI GAMPONG PEUNITI KECAMATAN BAITURRAHMAN BANDA ACEH TAHUN 2012

KEMENTRIAN PENDIDIKAN DAN KEBUDAYAANUNIVERSITAS SYIAH KUALAFAKULTAS KEDOKTERANPROGRAM STUDI ILMU KEPERAWATANSKRIPSI08 Oktober 2012xiv Halaman + VI Bab + 69 Halaman + 12 Tabel + 1 Skema + 12 LampiranAYU PERMATA BUNDANIM. 0807101020013GAMBARAN PEMENUHAN KEBUTUHAN NUTRISI PADA LANSIA DI GAMPONG PEUNITI KECAMATAN BAITURRAHMAN BANDA ACEH TAHUN 2012ABSTRAKKondisi kesehatan pada lansia sangat ditentukan oleh kualitas dan kuantitas asupan nutrisi. Nutrisi penting dalam proses penuaan. Nutrisi merupakan substansi organik yang dibutuhkan organisme untuk fungsi normal dari sistem tubuh, pertumbuhan dan pemeliharaan kesehatan. Nutrisi yang baik akan berperan dalam upaya penurunan prosentase timbulnya penyakit dan angka kematian di usia lanjut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat gambaran pemenuhan kebutuhan nutrisi pada lansia di Gampong Peuniti Kecamatan Baiturrahman Banda Aceh dengan desain penelitian deskriptif eksploratif. Populasi dalam penelitian adalah 32 responden dengan teknik pengambilan sampel secara total sampling dengan besar sampel 32 responden. Teknik pengumpulan data dalam penelititan ini adalah pengukuran dan wawancara terpimpin. Alat pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah timbangan, meteran dan formulir food recall. Data hasil penelitian dianalisa secara univariate dengan menentukan persentase terpenuhi dan tidak terpenuhi. Dari hasil penelitian diperoleh pemenuhan kebutuhan karbohidrat berada pada kategori terpenuhi dengan frekuensi 32 orang (100%), dari pemenuhan kebutuhan protein berada pada kategori terpenuhi dengan frekuensi 32 orang (100%) dan dari pemenuhan kebutuhan lemak berada pada kategori terpenuhi dengan frekuensi 27 (84,375%). Secara umum dapat disimpulkan bahwa gambaran pemenuhan kebutuhan nutrisi pada lansia berada pada kategori terpenuhi dengan frekuensi 31 orang (96,9%). Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diharapkan kepada lansia agar tetap mempertahankan pola makan yang teratur untuk dapat mempertahankan pemenuhan kebutuhan karbohidrat, protein dan lemak yang baik.Kata kunci : Pemenuhan Kebutuhan Nutrisi, Lansia dan NutrisiDaftar Bacaan : 33 Buku, 2 Bahan Internet, 3 Jurnal, 10 Skripsi (1984-2012

COMOVEMENTS IN EMERGING MARKET BOND RETURNS: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT

The objective of the paper is to empirically assess the comovement of emerging bond returns of the key constituent countries of the EMBI Global benchmark Index since their introduction (broadly in 1997) up to the present. We aim at disentangling the respective roles of common external factors and "pure" contagion in the recent events of market spillovers. The unweighted average of cross-country rolling correlation coefficients, adjusted and unadjusted for the presence of common external factors, provides a first assessment of the joint behavior of emerging markets bond returns during the sample period. We furthermore show that the cross-country average correlations method may not be useful in summarizing market results if the underlying distribution of bond returns is not unimodal (i.e., if there are underlying groups that exhibit high within-group comovement but not between-group comovement). Several methods are used on a year-to-year basis in order to identify periods where the “two-tier paradigm” of emerging markets prevails. The analysis of correlation matrices enables us to identify groups of countries moving together during the recent events in emerging markets. These findings are further refined by performing Principal Component and Cluster Analysis. We provide a method in order to quantify the excess comovement common to all emerging countries as well as the country-specific one. Finally, we find evidence of “market tiering” and investors' discrimination especially during tranquil times: the first three quarters of 1997, from the third quarter of 1999 to the end of 2000 and from 2003 to 2005. We suggest that regional patterns and credit quality differentiation have an important role to play in the investors' discriminating behavior regarding the emerging bond markets whenever the period is free of strong and unforeseen shocks leading to spillover across countries and markets.emerging bond markets, excess comovement, contagion, market segmentation