Old Tools, New Ways of Using Them: Harnessing Expert Opinions to Plan for Surprise in Marine Socio-Ecological Systems

Copyright © 2019 Gladstone-Gallagher, Hope, Bulmer, Clark, Stephenson, Mangan, Rullens, Siwicka, Thomas, Pilditch, Savage and Thrush. With globally accelerating rates of environmental disturbance, coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly prone to non-linear regime shifts that result in a loss of ecosystem function and services. A lack of early-detection methods, and an over reliance on limits-based approaches means that these tipping points manifest as surprises. Consequently, marine ecosystems are notoriously difficult to manage, and scientists, managers, and policy makers are paralyzed in a spiral of ecosystem degradation. This paralysis is caused by the inherent need to quantify the risk and uncertainty that surrounds every decision. While progress toward forecasting tipping points is ongoing and important, an interim approach is desperately needed to enable scientists to make recommendations that are credible and defensible in the face of deep uncertainty. We discuss how current tools for developing risk assessments and scenario planning, coupled with expert opinions, can be adapted to bridge gaps in quantitative data, enabling scientists and managers to prepare for many plausible futures. We argue that these tools are currently underutilized in a marine cumulative effects context but offer a way to inform decisions in the interim while predictive models and early warning signals remain imperfect. This approach will require redefining the way we think about managing for ecological surprise to include actions that not only limit drivers of tipping points but increase socio-ecological resilience to yield satisfactory outcomes under multiple possible futures that are inherently uncertain

Tackling barriers to COVID-19 vaccine uptake in London: a mixed-methods evaluation

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the first vaccine was administered in December 2020 in England. However, vaccination uptake has historically been lower in London than in other English regions. METHODS: Mixed-methods: This comprised an analysis of cumulative percentage uptake across London between 8 December 2020 and 6 June 2021 by vaccine priority cohorts and ethnicity. We also undertook thematic analyses of uptake barriers, interventions to tackle these and key learning from a qualitative survey of 27 London local authority representatives, vaccine plans from London's five Integrated Care Systems and interviews with 38 London system representatives. RESULTS: Vaccine uptake was lower in Black ethnic (57-65% uptake) compared with the White British group (90% uptake). Trust was a critical issue, including mistrust in the vaccine itself and in authorities administering or promoting it. The balance between putative costs and benefits of vaccination created uptake barriers for zero-hour and shift workers. Intensive, targeted and 'hyper-local' initiatives, which sustained community relationships and were not constrained by administrative boundaries, helped tackle these barriers. CONCLUSIONS: The success of the national vaccination programme depended on conceding local autonomy, investing in responsive and long-term partnerships to engender trust through in-depth understanding of communities' beliefs

Monochorionic-triamniotic triplet pregnancy after intracytoplasmic sperm injection, assisted hatching, and two-embryo transfer: first reported case following IVF

BACKGROUND: We present a case of monochorionic-triamniotic pregnancy that developed after embryo transfer following in vitro fertilization (IVF). METHODS: After controlled ovarian hyperstimulation and transvaginal retrieval of 22 metaphase II oocytes, fertilization was accomplished with intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Assisted embryo hatching was performed, and two embryos were transferred in utero. One non-transferred blastocyst was cryopreserved. RESULTS: Fourteen days post-transfer, serum hCG level was 423 mIU/ml and subsequent transvaginal ultrasound revealed a single intrauterine gestational sac with three separate amnion compartments. Three distinct foci of cardiac motion were detected and the diagnosis was revised to monochorionic-triamniotic triplet pregnancy. Antenatal management included cerclage placement at 19 weeks gestation and hospital admission at 28 weeks gestation due to mild preeclampsia. Three viable female infants were delivered via cesarean at 30 5/7 weeks gestation. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of triplet delivery in humans is approximately 1:6400, and such pregnancies are classified as high-risk for reasons described in this report. We also outline an obstetric management strategy designed to optimize outcomes. The roles of IVF, ICSI, assisted embryo hatching and associated laboratory culture conditions on the subsequent development of monozygotic/monochorionic pregnancy remain controversial. As demonstrated here, even when two-embryo transfer is employed after IVF the statistical probability of monozygotic multiple gestation cannot be reduced to zero. We encourage discussion of this possibility during informed consent for the advanced reproductive technologies

Tackling barriers to COVID-19 vaccine uptake in London: a mixed-methods evaluation.

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the first vaccine was administered in December 2020 in England. However, vaccination uptake has historically been lower in London than in other English regions. METHODS: Mixed-methods: This comprised an analysis of cumulative percentage uptake across London between 8 December 2020 and 6 June 2021 by vaccine priority cohorts and ethnicity. We also undertook thematic analyses of uptake barriers, interventions to tackle these and key learning from a qualitative survey of 27 London local authority representatives, vaccine plans from London's five Integrated Care Systems and interviews with 38 London system representatives. RESULTS: Vaccine uptake was lower in Black ethnic (57-65% uptake) compared with the White British group (90% uptake). Trust was a critical issue, including mistrust in the vaccine itself and in authorities administering or promoting it. The balance between putative costs and benefits of vaccination created uptake barriers for zero-hour and shift workers. Intensive, targeted and 'hyper-local' initiatives, which sustained community relationships and were not constrained by administrative boundaries, helped tackle these barriers. CONCLUSIONS: The success of the national vaccination programme depended on conceding local autonomy, investing in responsive and long-term partnerships to engender trust through in-depth understanding of communities' beliefs

Ectopic Pregnancy as a Model to Identify Endometrial Genes and Signaling Pathways Important in Decidualization and Regulated by Local Trophoblast

The endometrium in early pregnancy undergoes decidualization and functional changes induced by local trophoblast, which are not fully understood. We hypothesized that endometrium from tubal ectopic pregnancy (EP) could be interrogated to identify novel genes and pathways involved in these processes. Gestation-matched endometrium was collected from women with EP (n = 11) and intrauterine pregnancies (IUP) (n = 13). RNA was extracted from the tissue. In addition, tissues were prepared for histological analysis for degree of decidualization. We compared a) the samples from EP that were decidualized (n = 6) with non-decidualized samples (n = 5), and b) the decidualized EP (n = 6) with decidualization-matched IUP (n = 6) samples using an Affymetrix gene array platform, with Ingenuity Pathway Analysis, combined with quantitative RT-PCR. Expression of PRL and IGFBP1 was used to confirm the degree of decidualization in each group. There were no differences in PRL or IGFBP1 expression in the decidualization-matched samples but a marked reduction (P<0.001) in the non-decidualized samples. Decidualization was associated with increased expression of 428 genes including SCARA5 (181-fold), DKK1 (71-fold) and PROK1 (32-fold), and decreased expression of 230 genes including MMP-7 (35-fold) and SFRP4 (21-fold). The top canonical pathways associated with these differentially expressed genes were Natural Killer Cell and Wnt/b-Catenin signaling. Local trophoblast was associated with much less alteration of endometrial gene expression with an increase in 56 genes, including CSH1 (8-fold), and a reduction in 29 genes including CRISP3 (8-fold). The top associated canonical pathway was Antigen Presentation. The study of endometrium from tubal EP may promote novel insights into genes involved in decidualization and those influenced by factors from neighboring trophoblast. This has afforded unique information not highlighted by previous studies and adds to our understanding of the endometrium in early pregnancy

Identification of human heat shock protein 60 (Hsp60) and anti-Hsp60 antibodies in the peripheral circulation of normal individuals

Although primarily regarded as being intracellular, this study has identified the presence of heat shock protein 60 (Hsp60) in the peripheral circulation of normal individuals. The median Hsp60 concentration was approximately 3.5-fold higher in females than in males and significantly higher levels of anti-human Hsp60 antibodies were also detected in females. There were no differences in the levels of antibodies to mycobacterial Hsp60 between males and females, nor did antibody levels correlate with Hsp60 concentrations. Hsp60 was not released from mitogenically stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The potential physiological roles for circulating Hsp60 are unknown. Given the emerging evidence that inappropriate reactivity to heat shock proteins is involved in autoimmune disease and that T cells responsive to self Hsp60 appear to be protective, these findings suggest that circulating Hsp60 may be involved in the regulation of tolerance to self and immunity to bacterial forms of these widely expressed and structurally conserved proteins

A randomized trial comparing the effectiveness and preference of a touch-screen computer system with a leaflet for providing women with information on urinary symptoms suggestive of detrusor instability

Objectives: To evaluate how well women learned and retained information given to them by either a leaflet or a computer-generated information system, and which system they preferred to use for obtaining information about urinary symptoms. Subjects and methods: Forty women answered 11 questions on the aetiology, investigation and treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms. They were then randomized to use one of the information systems for 20 min, after which they answered the same urological questions. The women then crossed over to use the other information system for 20 min and afterwards completed a preference questionnaire. Results: The mean baseline scores from a possible total of 11 were 3.9 and 4.3 for the computer and leaflet groups, respectively. The mean improvements in scores were 3.6 (P < 0.001) and 2.8 (P < 0.001) for the computer and leaflet groups, respectively. Both information systems were well liked by all of the women and 26 (65%) said they would prefer to use a computer-generated system in the future if given a choice. Conclusions: Women significantly increased their knowledge of urinary problems after using a computer-generated information system or a leaflet. Although there were few subjects, there appeared to be a trend for the computer system to be both better liked and slightly more effective