Bayesian analysis for mixtures of discrete distributions with a non-parametric component

Bayesian finite mixture modelling is a flexible parametric modelling approach for classification and density fitting. Many application areas require distinguishing a signal from a noise component. In practice, it is often difficult to justify a specific distribution for the signal component, therefore the signal distribution is usually further modelled via a mixture of distributions. However, modelling the signal as a mixture of distributions is computationally challenging due to the difficulties in justifying the exact number of components to be used and due to the label-switching problem. The use of a non-parametric distribution to model the signal component is proposed. This new methodology leads to more accurate parameter estimation, smaller classification error rate and smaller false non-discovery rate in the case of discrete data. Moreover, it does not incur the label-switching problem. An application of the method to data generated by ChIP-sequencing experiments is shown. A one-dimensional Markov random field model is proposed, which accounts for the spatial dependencies in the data. The methodology is also applied to ChIP-seq data, which shows that the new method detected more genes enriched regions than similar existing methods at the same false discovery rate

Factors influencing fertilizer demand in developing countries: evidence from Malawi

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine some factors that influence the intensity of fertilizer use in Malawi. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses Engle-Granger, Engle-Yoo three steps and autoregressive distributed lags (ARDLs) approaches to examine the long-run and the short-run dynamics among the variables using annual data from 1961 to 2006. Findings: The econometric results indicate that all the variables exert significance influence on the quantity of fertilizer demanded excluding population growth, while the results of the short-run model indicate that the responsiveness of fertilizer demand to all the variables is significant. Research limitations/implications: Although, this study has provided some helpful results in understanding the major factors responsible for low fertilizer consumption in the study but some time series data on important factors are lacking. Originality/value: The work is different from already existing literature in Malawi. The authors included subsidy and real gross domestic product to account for the effect of macroeconomic shocks and policies, which has not been accounted for by other related empirical studies. Moreover, this study used ARDLs techniques that can overcome the problem of insufficiently long time series data which is a significant contribution to the existing literature

Is Price Discrimination Harmful and should be Forbidden? a conceptual and theoretical Analysis

This paper attempts to provide a discussion on the ways in which price discrimination affects economic efficiency. The main proposition of competition policy is that perfect competitive markets are efficient and hence price discrimination is harmful. The study reviews the conceptual and theoretical views to identify the different effects of different types of price discrimination on social welfare. The study illustrates how incumbent firms can act to undermine competition in monopolistic market. The study further reveals that price discrimination may be seen as a precondition for efficient pricing and can lead firms to leave consumers with or without surplus than they would enjoy in its absence. Keywords: Price discrimination; competition policy; efficiency, theoretica

The Effects of Chronic Inflation on Resource Allocation: towards understanding non-neutrality of monetary inflation

This paper attempts to provide an in-depth discussion on the ways in which chronic inflation distorts efficientallocation of resources in an economy. The rate of inflation in some developing countries has been high andvolatile, and the rate of adjustment of the nominal variables is quite low both in the short and long-run. Theprocess of adjustments is not only low but also less systematic thereby adversely affects contracts denominatedin money and money terms. The study also highlights some likely distortions arising from anti-inflationarymeasures such as usury laws and other state controls, and their likely impacts on long-term finance andimplications for rate of urban development in less developed countries. However, the study concludes thatmonetary inflation is non-neutral on resource allocation as it erodes the real value of money and monetary assets.Therefore, we recommend that given the severity of the distortions and its associated costs there is the need foran effective monetary correction mechanism.Keywords: Inflation, monetary contracts, non-neutrality of money, Resource allocatio

Book Chapter Review: Hate Speech and Nigeria’s Struggle for Democratic Consolidation: A Conceptual Review

Disinformation and hate speech or dislike are not new to Nigerian polity. However, since the internet revolution in recent decades, 2015 is seen as the year Nigeria “finally woke up to the threat of disinformation and the way internet technologies are secretly and subtly used to undermine democracy” (White & Elliott, 2018, p.5). Since then, whenever national, state or local council elections approach, Nigeria experiences tense and difficult times – chaos, crises, conflicts, media propaganda, hate comments and false information climax thereby exposing the heightened political horse-trading, war against systemic and widespread corruption, debilitating poverty, weak institutions, threats of secession, etc. that are already nibbling at the country’s fragile peace and unity. Because of the revolution in information and communication technology (ICT) and the attendant ‘relative’ democratisation of access and participation, election times in Nigeria should ideally be the time for the free flow of genuine, verified political information and tolerance. However, like in many other African countries, it is during these times that Nigeria wrestles with the rise in ethnic politics, regionalism and smear campaign that often escalate to the extent of threatening the country’s political framework. Using a critical review of extant literature, this chapter provides further understanding on the impacts and processes of fake news and hate speech in Nigeria especially during political activities. Keywords: Disinformation, Fake news, Hate speech, Nigerian democratic process DOI: 10.7176/NMMC/87-01 Publication date: January 31st 202

Generalised tetanus: A rare complication of Richter’s hernia

We present a case report of generalized tetanus following umbilical Richter’s hernia in a 10 month old unimmunized boy. This case is reported because tetanus is a rare complication of Richter’s hernia and to emphasize the need for immunization of all unimmunized children with tetanus vaccine. Ahigh index of suspicion is important in the diagnosis of Richter’s herniain order to avoid complication, as diagnosis is often delayed or missed. The co-exiting tetany is also a rare co-morbidity of Richter’s hernia

Exploding the Role of Religious Institutions in Combating Child Trafficking in Nigeria

Human trafficking is a global challenge especially in the 21stCentury. Nigeria like most developing countries is doing its best in addressing the menace of child trafficking. In view of the fact that religious institutions are highly respected in Nigeria, this paper intends to adopt a doctrinal methodology in examining the menace of child trafficking in Nigeria, by using the perspective of Islam and Christianity. Moreover, also seeing the role that can be played by the Supreme Council of Islamic Affairs and the Christian Association of Nigeria in the crusade against child trafficking in Nigeria Perdagangan manusia merupakan sebuah tantangan global pada abad ke-21. Sebagaimana negara berkembang pada umumnya, Nigeria melakukan upaya yang terbaik guna menangani ancaman perdagangan anak. Mengingat bahwa institusi keagamaan sangat dihormati di Nigeria, artikel ini bermaksud untuk mengadopsi metodologi doktrin dalam mengkaji ancaman perdagangan anak di Nigeria, melalui perspektif agama Islam dan agama Kristen perihal perdagangan anak. Selain itu, juga melihat peran yang dipegang oleh Dewan Tinggi Urusan Islam dan Asosiasi Umat Kristen Nigeria dalam perjuangan melawan perdagangan anak di Nigeria

Cephalic Tetanus: A Case Report

A case report of cephalic tetanus in a 2-year-old girl who was not immunized against tetanus following suppurative otitis media (SOM) is presented. This case is reported because of the rarity of cephalic tetanus associated with high mortality, to highlight the risk of cephalic tetanus as sequelae of SOM and the need for proper aural care and prompt treatment of SOM. Primary immunization of all eligible children as well as booster vaccination at appropriate time as an effective management strategy for tetanus is emphasized

Urban poverty, inequality and industry in Nigeria

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between industrial sector growth, inequalities and urban poverty reduction Design/methodology/approach – The paper used static panel data analysis. However, the tests suggest that there are no state-specific effects; hence, the pooled panel regression techniques are used for the analysis. Findings – The findings of the paper suggest that the industrial sector growth exert no significance on urban poverty while the urban wholesale and retail services growth is found to be substantially strong in reducing urban poverty. The results also indicate that there is no statistically significant evidence to conclude that higher incidence of urban poverty was due to the high degree of inequalities. Research limitations/implications – This paper has provided some helpful results in understanding the heterogeneous effects of sectoral components of growth of urban poverty in the presence of high income inequalities, but the limitation of this study is that there is no disaggregated poverty and growth data on different occupational activity. Practical implications – There is a need to expand investment in the production and export manufacturing labor-intensive sectors; this will help increase the labor absorption rate of the industry and, thus, reduce poverty in the urban areas. Originality/value – The paper improves on previous research on poverty in Nigeria by explicitly recognizing the effects of location and inequality

Bacterial Contamination of Potable Processed, Packaged, And Commercialized Water in Parts of Kaduna Metropolis, Nigeria

A study was conducted to isolate and characterize Salmonella typhi and Vibrio cholerae from three (3) types of packaged commercial water (sachet, bottle and dispenser jar) in Kaduna metropolis. Membrane filtration technique was employed in screening for viable pathogenic bacteria (Salmonella typhi and Vibrio cholerae); coliform indicator (Escherichia coli) and the opportunistic pathogenic bacteria (Pseudomonas sp.). A total of 270 samples from 90 brands were collected randomly comprising of 171, 69 and 30 of sachet, bottle and dispenser jar using a patronage ratio of 6:2:1 of the three types of packaged water by consumers. Salmonella typhi and Vibrio cholerae appeared more with the prevalence of 11(15.9%) and 9(13.1%) of the 69 bottles; followed by 3(10.0%) and 2(6.7%) in dispenser jars; then 15(8.8%) and 5(2.9%) in sachet samples respectively. The probability of a consumer likely picking a bacteria contaminated water from sachet, bottle and dispenser jar was found to be 0.117, 0.290 and 0.166 respectively. There was no significant difference in level of contamination at p≥0.01 (99%) for all the three types of packaged water. Molecular confirmation of cholera toxigenic gene (CtxA) in Vibrio cholerae isolates is suggestive that virulent strains were present and clinical infection is possible for consumers of the contaminated water. In conclusion, there is therefore an equal possibility of contracting food-borne bacterial infection and intoxication without any relative safety advantage between the three different packaged brands. Manufacturers of the water might need to reinvigorate and improve their method of processing to ensure almost complete sterility in the end product as the presence of even one bacterial pathogen may adversely affect the health of consumers of the water. This development could spell negative consequences for the manufacturers of the product, as consumers might be scared of consuming their products. Keywords: Salmonella tyhi, Vibrio cholerae, Pseudomonas sp. Escherichia col