Determinanten von Bildungsdifferenzen in Deutschland. Lehren und Grenzen der PISA-Studie

Die PISA-Studien haben zu einer intensiven Bildungsdebatte beigetragen. In Deutschland werden Bildungsdifferenzen häufig singulär durch Bildungspolitik oder durch soziale Ungleichheit erklärt. Anhand von PISA-Daten (2006) werden Determinanten des Bildungsniveaus und ihre relative Erklärungskraft analysiert. Es wird gezeigt, dass Migrationshintergrund, soziale Schicht, Schüler-Lehrkräfte-Verhältnis und regionale Faktoren das Kompetenzniveau beeinflussen, wobei ein Interaktionseffekt von Migration und Schicht die Wirkung verstärkt. (DIPF/Orig.)The PISA-studies have immensely affected the education debate. Educational differences within Germany are often singularly explained by education policy or social inequality. The study analyses determinants of educational success by PISA-data (2006). The results show that migration background, social class, student-teacher-ratio and regional factors have an impact on students’ competence. The interaction of migration and social inequality increases the effect. (DIPF/Orig.

Fertility declines near the end of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 birth declines in Germany and Sweden

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries faced short-term fertility declines in 2020 and 2021, a development which did not materialize in Scandinavian and German-speaking countries. However, more recent birth statistics show a steep fertility decline in the aftermath of the pandemic in 2022. We aim to provide data on the unexpected birth decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden and relate these data to pandemic-related contextual developments which could have influenced the post-pandemic fertility development. We rely on monthly birth statistics and present seasonally adjusted monthly Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Germany and Sweden. We relate the nine-months lagged fertility rates to contextual developments regarding COVID-19 mortality and morbidity, unemployment rates, and COVID-19 vaccinations. The seasonally adjusted monthly TFR of Germany dropped from 1.5-1.6 in 2021 to 1.3-1.4 in 2022, a decline of about 14%. In Sweden, the corresponding TFR dropped from about 1.7 in 2021 to 1.5-1.6 in 2022, a decline of almost 10%. There is no association of the fertility trends with changes in unemployment, infection rates, or COVID-19 deaths. However, there is a strong association between the onset of vaccination programmes and the fertility decline nine months after of this onset. The fertility decline in the first months of 2022 in Germany and Sweden is remarkable. Common explanations of fertility change during the pandemic do not apply in its aftermath. The association between the onset of mass vaccinations and subsequent fertility decline indicates that people adjusted their behaviour to get vaccinated before becoming pregnant, as societies were opening up with post-pandemic life conditions. Our study provides novel information on fertility declines in countries previously not affected by any COVID-19 baby bust. We provide a first appraisal of the COVID-19-fertility nexus in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic

Impact of Regional Factors on Cohort Fertility: New Estimations at the District Level in Germany

"Incorporating the regional context into fertility research has a long standing tradition. However, in Germany, fertility data at the district level only exist for period total fertility rates (TFR), but not for cohort total fertility rates (CTFR). Based on the 2011 census and birth statistics, we estimate the CTFR at the district level and analyse factors influencing their variation. First, we estimate the CTFR for the 1969-72 cohorts in all 402 German districts. The estimated CTFR differ strongly across German districts ranging between 1.05 and 2.01. Further, the estimated CTFR differ substantially from the known TFR values. This is mainly due to biases in the tempo component of the TFR, which are crucial in East German districts, university cities and in urban-rural comparisons. Therefore, the estimated CTFR allow for a better assessment of fertility differences across districts. Second, we analyse the differences in the newly estimated CTFR employing regression models. Composition effects such as a low proportion of highly educated women, a high share of Catholics or immigrants are significantly associated with higher CTFR in West German districts. However, regional opportunities are also important: A low population density, the availability of relatively spacious dwellings, a surplus of males, a small service sector and low unemployment rates are associated with higher fertility. Overall the analyses show regional factors are highly relevant for fertility." (author's abstract). This article contains supplementary material in the form of an online appendix: http://dx.doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2017-08e

Changes in personal attitudes and perceived public opinions towards external childcare

This study investigates how the transition to parenthood relates to changes in personal attitudes and perceived public opinion towards external childcare for children under three. We use German panel data which capture cultural perceptions such as individual attitudes and perceived public opinions regarding day care for under threes. We analyze how both variables change during the family formation phase using panel regressions with linear between-within (hybrid) models. The findings suggest that cultural perceptions are strongly influenced by life course events. After their first child is born, parents are less skeptical of day care for under threes; however, we found no systematic changes in perceived public opinion. The results show an increasing gap between personal attitudes of parents and their perception of public opinion regarding childcare acceptance. These diverging views point to a conflict between the wish to use external childcare and societal expectations, which has strong implications for gender equality

La construction des panthéons dans la Chine ancienne d’après les sources transmises et les manuscrits (IVe siècle av. J.-C. - IVe siècle apr. J.-C.) (suite)

Nous avons poursuivi notre exploration des panthéons de la Chine ancienne en étudiant et traduisant l’ensemble des fiches divinatoires et sacrificielles découvertes en 1987 dans la tombe d’un aristocrate du nom de Shao Tuo 邵佗, ministre de gauche 左尹 à la cour du roi de Chu (Chu Huai wang [楚懷王 r. 328-299]) et apparenté à la famille royale. Ces fiches conservent les résultats des séances de divination pratiquées pour le compte du ministre par douze devins au moyen de la tortue et l’achillée entr..

Education and Intended Number of Children in Germany, Moldova and Norway: An International Comparison Using FReDA and GGS-II-data

In this study, we compare the intended number of children in Germany, Moldova and Norway in 2020 and 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic. In a first step, we compare the intended number of children (including children born) in the newly available Generations and Gender Survey round 2 (GGS-II) and the German FReDA-GGS data. In a second step, we estimate the number of further intended children with multinomial logistic regression models. The results reveal considerable differences across the three countries. Respondents in Moldova plan to have rather large families (on average 3.3 children, including children born), whereas individuals in Norway and Germany intend to have 2.0 and 1.8 children, respectively. In the multinomial logistic regression analyses, we find differences in the association of educational level and fertility plans by gender and country. In Germany, education is positively related to the intention to have further children. This pattern is more pronounced for women than for men. Furthermore, this association is also found among Norwegian men. In Moldova, we find only weak evidence for this association. For Norwegian women, education and the intention to have further children also seem to be unrelated. While most data about the intended number of children refer to the 2000s or earlier, we contribute to the literature by providing recent insights on the intended number of children in three European countries, including Moldova, a country that is understudied in demographic research

Does Public Childcare boost Female Labour Force Participation? A Macro-Level Approach comparing Fixed Effect and Fixed Effect Individual Slope Models for Germany 2007-2017

The expansion of public childcare and increases in female labor force participation (FLP) are major developments in European societies. Though studies, in general, suggest the existence of effects of childcare on FLP, the results are very heterogeneous across different studies. This heterogeneity may well be driven by the lack of accounting for heterogeneous time trends and regional differences. Based on a fully balanced panel of German counties from 2007 to 2017, the effects of an increase in overall and full-time childcare places for children aged 0-2 and 3-5 on FLP are estimated. We add novel empirical insights by using fixed effect (FE) and fixed effect individual slope models (FEIS) to control for selection on trends, and by differentiating across different regional types. In most cases, we find conventional FE models to be biased due to heterogeneous time trends. In West Germany, increases in overall and full-time childcare places for children aged 3-5 years foster FLP. For toddlers (0-2), we find no effect on FLP in West Germany once selection on trends is taken into account. When further differentiating by region type, we identify a strong impact of full-time care for the age group 0-2 on FLP in urban, agglomeration and rural counties, but not in metropolitan areas. Our results highlight how the returns in FLP to public childcare differ between regional contexts and provide evidence for catch-up processes in childcare enrollment and FLP for rural areas