Case of the Month – A Returning Traveler with a Rash and Fever

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Case of the Month - A returning traveler with a rash and fever

Peer reviewe

Development of a prognostic model of COVID-19 severity : a population-based cohort study in Iceland

© 2022. The Author(s).BACKGROUND: The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in unvaccinated adults at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: All SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in Iceland were prospectively enrolled into a telehealth service at diagnosis. A multivariable proportional-odds logistic regression model was derived from information obtained during the enrollment interview of those diagnosed between February 27 and December 31, 2020 who met the inclusion criteria. Outcomes were defined on an ordinal scale: (1) no need for escalation of care during follow-up; (2) need for urgent care visit; (3) hospitalization; and (4) admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or death. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Decision curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The prognostic model was derived from 4756 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons. In total, 375 (7.9%) only required urgent care visits, 188 (4.0%) were hospitalized and 50 (1.1%) were either admitted to ICU or died due to complications of COVID-19. The model included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, underlying conditions, and symptoms and clinical severity score at enrollment. On internal validation, the optimism-corrected Nagelkerke's R2 was 23.4% (95%CI, 22.7-24.2), the C-statistic was 0.793 (95%CI, 0.789-0.797) and the calibration slope was 0.97 (95%CI, 0.96-0.98). Outcome-specific indices were for urgent care visit or worse (calibration intercept -0.04 [95%CI, -0.06 to -0.02], Emax 0.014 [95%CI, 0.008-0.020]), hospitalization or worse (calibration intercept -0.06 [95%CI, -0.12 to -0.03], Emax 0.018 [95%CI, 0.010-0.027]), and ICU admission or death (calibration intercept -0.10 [95%CI, -0.15 to -0.04] and Emax 0.027 [95%CI, 0.013-0.041]). CONCLUSION: Our prognostic model can accurately predict the later need for urgent outpatient evaluation, hospitalization, and ICU admission and death among unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in the general population at the time of diagnosis, using information obtained by telephone interview.Peer reviewe

Cumulative incidence of sickness absence and disease burden among the newly sick-listed, a cross-sectional population-based study

Background: Sickness absence is a public health problem with economic consequences for individuals and society. Although sickness absence and chronic diseases are correlated, few studies exist concerning the role of chronic disease in all-cause sickness absence. The aim was to assess the cumulative incidence of sickness absence and examine the accompanying burden of chronic diseases among the sick-listed. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed with data from 2008. Cumulative incidence of all-cause sickness absence (≥14 days) was calculated based on all newly sick-listed individuals (N = 12,543). The newly sick-listed sample and a randomized general population sample (n = 7,984) received a questionnaire (participation rates: 54% and 50%).To assess the burden of self-reported chronic diseases, standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated. Results: Estimated one-year cumulative incidence was 11.3% (95% CI: 11.2–11.3), 14.0% (13.9–14.1) for women and 8.6% (8.5–8.6) for men. Gender differences were consistent across all age groups, with highest cumulative incidence among women aged 51–64 years, 18.2% (18.0–18.5). For women, the burden of chronic disease was significantly higher for nine out of twelve disease groups, corresponding numbers for men were nine out of eleven disease groups (standardized for age and socio-economic status). Neoplastic diseases had the highest SIR with 4.3 (3.4–5.2) for women and 4.2 (2.8–5.6) for men. For psychiatric and rheumatic diseases the respective SIR’s were 1.7 for women and 1.8 for men. The remaining disease groups had an elevated risk of 20-60% (SIR 1.2–1.6). The risk of reporting a co-morbidity was increased for women (SIR 1.4 (95% CI 1.4–1.5)) and men (SIR 1.5 (1.4–1.7)) among the sick-listed. Conclusions: Register data was used to estimate of the cumulative incidence of sickness absence in the general population. A higher burden of chronic disease among the newly sick-listed was found. Targeting long-term health problems may be an important public health strategy for reducing sickness absence

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions on diagnosis of myocardial infarction and selected infections in Iceland 2020

INNGANGUR Sóttvarnaaðgerðir og breytingar á venjum almennings drógu úr útbreiðslu COVID-19 smita á árinu 2020 en áhrif aðgerðanna á tilurð og greiningu annarra sjúkdóma eru óþekkt. Markmið þessarar rannsóknar var að skoða áhrif heimsfaraldurs COVID-19 og viðbragða vegna hans á tíðni greininga bráðs hjartadreps og ákveðinna sýkinga með mismunandi smitleiðir árið 2020 samanborið við árin 2016-2019. EFNIVIÐUR OG AÐFERÐIR Kennitölur einstaklinga 18 ára og eldri sem lögðust inn á Landspítala 2016-2020 með lungnabólgu eða brátt hjartadrep voru fengnar úr sjúkraskrárkerfum. Fengin voru gögn um Chlamydia trachomatis sýni, inflúensugreiningar, HIV-próf og jákvæðar Enterobacterales-blóðsýkingar frá rannsóknastofum. Staðlað nýgengishlutfall (standardised incidence ratio, SIR) ásamt 95% öryggisbili (95% confidence interval, 95%CI) var reiknað fyrir þessa sjúkdóma árið 2020 borið saman við árin 2016-2019. NIÐURSTÖÐUR Fjöldi útskriftargreininga vegna lungnabólgu sem var ekki vegna COVID-19 dróst saman um 31% árið 2020 (SIR 0,69 (95%CI 0,64-0,75)). Útskriftargreiningum vegna bráðs hjartadreps fækkaði um 18% (SIR 0,82 (95%CI 0,75-0,90)) og bráðum hjartaþræðingum vegna bráðs kransæðaheilkennis um 23% (SIR 0,77 (95%CI 0,71-0,83)), en 15% aukning varð á blóðsýkingum með Enterobacterales-tegundum (SIR 1,15 (95%CI 1,04-1,28)). Sýnum þar sem leitað var að Chlamydia trachomatis fækkaði um 14,8% (p<0,001) og 16,3% fækkun (p<0,001) varð í heildarfjölda jákvæðra sýna. Fjöldi HIV-prófa dróst saman um 10,9% og 23,6% samdráttur varð á staðfestum inflúensutilfellum árið 2020 þrátt fyrir að sýnataka tvöfaldaðist. ÁLYKTANIR Sjúkrahúsinnlögnum vegna lungnabólgu af öðrum orsökum en COVID-19 fækkaði um ríflega fjórðung árið 2020. Greiningum á bráðu hjartadrepi, klamydíu og inflúensu fækkaði. Margt bendir til að um raunfækkun sé að ræða vegna breyttrar hegðunar á farsóttartímum. INTRODUCTON: Nonpharmaceutical interventions to contain the spread of COVID-19 infections in Iceland in 2020 were successful, but the effects of these measures on incidence and diagnosis of other diseases is unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI) and selected infections with different transmission routes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Health records of individuals 18 years or older who were admitted to Landspitali University Hospital (LUH) in 2016-2020 with pneumonia or MI were extracted from the hospital registry. We acquired data from the clinical laboratories regarding diagnostic testing for Chlamydia trachomatis, influenza, HIV and blood cultures positive for Enterobacterales species. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for 2020 was calculated with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) and compared to 2016-2019. RESULTS: Discharge diagnoses due to pneumonia decreased by 31% in 2020, excluding COVID-19 pneumonia (SIR 0.69 (95%CI 0.64-0.75)). Discharge diagnoses of MI decreased by 18% (SIR 0.82 (95%CI 0.75-0.90)), and emergency cardiac catheterizations due to acute coronary syndrome by 23% (SIR 0.77 (95%CI 0.71-0.83)), while there was a 15% increase in blood stream infections for Enterobacterales species (SIR 1.15 (95%CI 1.04-1.28)). Testing for Chlamydia trachomatis decreased by 14.8% and positive tests decreased by 16.3%. Tests for HIV were reduced by 10.9%, while samples positive for influenza decreased by 23.6% despite doubling of tests being performed. CONCLUSION: The number of pneumonia cases of other causes than COVID-19 requiring admission dropped by a quarter in 2020. MI, chlamydia and influensa diagnoses decreased notably. These results likely reflect a true decrease, probably due to altered behaviour during the pandemic.Peer reviewe

Detailed Multiplex Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Specific Antibodies in COVID-19 Disease

This work was supported in part by The Student Innovation Fund. The funding body had no role in the design of the study, collection, analysis, interpretation of data or writing of the manuscript. Funding Information: We would like to thank Runólfur Pálsson and Elías Eyþórsson for their assistance with the patient demographics. The Department of Clinical Microbiology for their assistance and last but not least the patients. Publisher Copyright: © Copyright © 2021 Brynjolfsson, Sigurgrimsdottir, Einarsdottir, Bjornsdottir, Armannsdottir, Baldvinsdottir, Bjarnason, Gudlaugsson, Gudmundsson, Sigurdardottir, Love, Kristinsson and Ludviksson.A detailed understanding of the antibody response against SARS-CoV-2 is of high importance, especially with the emergence of novel vaccines. A multiplex-based assay, analyzing IgG, IgM, and IgA antibodies against the receptor binding domain (RBD), spike 1 (S1), and nucleocapsid proteins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was set up. The multiplex-based analysis was calibrated against the Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay on a Roche Cobas® instrument, using positive and negative samples. The calibration of the multiplex based assay yielded a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 97.7%. SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody levels were analyzed by multiplex in 251 samples from 221 patients. A significant increase in all antibody types (IgM, IgG, and IgA) against RBD was observed between the first and the third weeks of disease. Additionally, the S1 IgG antibody response increased significantly between weeks 1, 2, and 3 of disease. Class switching appeared to occur earlier for IgA than for IgG. Patients requiring hospital admission and intensive care had higher levels of SARS-CoV-2 specific IgA levels than outpatients. These findings describe the initial antibody response during the first weeks of disease and demonstrate the importance of analyzing different antibody isotypes against multiple antigens and include IgA when examining the immunological response to COVID-19.Peer reviewe