Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions

Previous research on defining and measuring consensus (agreement) among forecasters has been concerned with evaluation of forecasts of continuous variables. This previous work is not relevant when the forecasts involve binary decisions: up-down or win-lose. In this paper we use Cohen¡¯s kappa coefficient, a measure of inter-rater agreement involving binary choices, to evaluate forecasts of National Football League games. This statistic is applied to the forecasts of 74 experts and 31 statistical systems that predicted the outcomes of games during two NFL seasons. We conclude that the forecasters, particularly the systems, displayed significant levels of agreement and that levels of agreement in picking game winners were higher than in picking against the betting line. There is greater agreement among statistical systems in picking game winners or picking winners against the line as the season progresses, but no change in levels of agreement among experts. High levels of consensus among forecasters are associated with greater accuracy in picking game winners, but not in picking against the line.binary forecasts, NFL, agreement, consensus, kappa coefficient

Estimating Parameters of the 1918-19 Influenza Epidemic on U.S. Military Bases

Occasional shifts in the influenza virus generates a new variant, posing potential threat of a deadly epidemic. This type of shift occurred with the 1918-19 flu with devastating consequences in the U.S. and worldwide. Using newly developed data from 18 U.S. military establishments during the 1918-19 flu epidemic, we estimate parameters of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed epidemic model. Our estimates show considerable variation in the value of the infectivity parameter across bases. This variation is uncorrelated with base size or beginning date of the epidemic. Results indicate that the epidemic on U.S. military bases was more infectious than those of in England and Wales

Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game

Recruiting competent personnel is crucial for the success of any organization, especially in competitive sports where the success of teams depends upon the quality of players selected. This paper examines whether football executives are able to forecast who will be the most successful quarterbacks and wide receivers. Our data base is constructed from the NFL drafts between 1974 and 2005. We use a variety of measures to determine the success of the players selected in those drafts. We conclude that, although their ability to rank the future performance of players is less than perfect, football executives are very successful in evaluating the talent of athletes. There was no evidence that teams that selected Awell@ also had competitive success.sports forecasts; personnel forecasts; National Football League; sports economics

Access to Credit, Education, and Women’s Say in the Household: Evidence from Bangladesh

A substantial literature on women’s say in the household focuses on microcredit, but there is little evidence on the relative roles of credit and education. Using household survey data from Bangladesh, we provide a comparative analysis of the effects of education and microcredit on women’s decision making power in the household. We implement two econometric approaches: bias adjusted OLS estimator of Oster (2019) that extends the Altonji et al. (2005) approach where selection on observables is used as a guide to selection on unobservables, and doubly robust radius matching estimator of Lechner et al. (2011). The evidence suggests a limited impact of microcredit, consistent with the recent evidence from RCT based studies. In contrast, education is much more important for enhancing women’s say in a range of household decisions. There is no significant interaction effect between education and credit. Evidence from Gelbach decomposition suggests that outside employment is an important mediating mechanism, but household wealth and assortative marriage matching on education are not important. The impact of education on women’s decision making remains strong even after controlling for these mediating factors, pointing to the importance of other mechanisms such as self-confidence and better negotiation skills of educated women

On the use and nonuse of surveys in economics

While it is widely alleged that economists do not like or use questionnaire surveys, the facts are considerably more complicated. Economists make extensive use of survey information on such things as prices and employment, and the use of 'contingent valuation' surveys has exploded recently. The paper reviews the historical debate that led to economists' seeming distrust of surveys. It then investigates why there is extensive use of surveys in the face of methodological strictures against survey use. To do this, the paper develops a typology of kinds of information that can be gathered by surveys and considers whether anti-survey arguments apply with equal force to the various categories. Differing methodological uses for survey data are then considered, using a number of actual survey literatures as illustrations. Finally, the paper presents strategies for improving the use of survey data in economics.survey methods, survey data, questionnaires, contingent valuation, economic methodology, measurement,