Further explorations of interactions between agricultural policy and regional growth in Western Europe - approaches to nonstationarity in spatial econometrics

The work discussed in Bivand and Brunstad (2003) was an attempt to throw light on apparent variability in regional convergence in relation to agriculture as a sector subject to powerful political measures, in Western Europe, 1989 1999. We tried to explore the possibility that some of the observed specification issues in current results are rooted in neglecting agricultural policy interventions, within the limitations imposed by data available. We also attempted to use this as a case setting for evaluating the appropriateness of geographically weighted regression (GWR) as a technique for assessing coef- ficient variability, over and above for instance country dummies, but possibly reflecting missing variables or other specification problems. The present study takes up a number of points made in conclusion in that paper. Since it is possible that the non-stationarity found there is related to further missing variables, including the inadequacy of the way in which agricultural subsidies are represented, we attempt to replace the agriculture variables with better estimates of producer subsidy equivalents for the base year. We also look at ways of handling changes in agricultural policy regime occurring between years and T. This raises the further challenge of looking at both spatial and temporal dimensions at the same time, which we will discuss, but are not likely to resolve satisfactorily. On the technical side, the tests on GWR estimates also need to be more firmly established. The GWR results also need to be tested for spatial autocorrelation, and re-worked in an adaptive weighting framework, although GWR does already involve a spatial weighting of the observations themselves. The paper is therefore also an account of the development of software contributed to the R project (R Development Core Team, 2004) as packages, in particular the spdep package for spatial econometrics, and the spgwr package for GWR fitting. In particular, specific issues regarding the handling of the Jacobian in fitting spatial simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models, and in interpreting GWR output will be discussed. These will be set in the context of on-going work on semi-parametric spatial filtering, which it is hoped to add to spdep following contributions by Michael Tiefelsdorf, so that the weaknesses and strengths of alternative approaches can be compared. Concentrating on implementations in R is justified by the preliminary nature of many of these methods requiring open source and replicable statistical research approaches, so that others can, if they wish, see how results were calculated. One such technical issue is the representation of neighbours in the various approaches, and of the impact of symmetry requirements in conditional autoregressive (CAR) models typically used in MCMC estimation using Open- BUGS and elsewhere. Indeed, in many SAR models, symmetry is also required, or at least underlying symmetry, with the weights matrix in the rowstandardised weighting scheme typically being similar to a symmetric matrix. Using the Western European regional growth data augmented with agricultural policy variables, we will try to explore how far some as-yet unresolved technical questions impede progress with substantive interpretation. We will also try to show how these questions may be handled in other software settings, and how data can be moved between software platforms for analysis. In conclusion, the paper has two threads, one focussing on the analysis of the relationships between regional growth and agricultural policy, generating models needing testing, while the other attempts to meet the software demands generated in the first thread, and to incorporate on-going research in spatial data-analytic methods to respond adequately to the potential importance of the substantive research question.

Efficiency losses in milk marketing boards – the importance of exports

A milk marketing board (MMB) is a legislatively specified compulsory marketing institution, and a common way to regulate markets for dairy products. MMBs are based on price discrimination. As price discrimination leads to unequal profitability between products, receipts from sales are pooled and farmers receive a single price adjusted for composition and quality. It is well documented that price discrimination through MMBs incurs an efficiency loss to the society. Earlier contributions, Ippolito and Masson (1978) and Serck-Hansen (1979), point to the fact that a particular high loss is incurred if export of dairy products is included in the MMB. It proves difficult to find examples where this is the case. MMB countries are either large with a low export share in dairy products (USA and Japan), have economies of scale (Australia) or exports are excluded from the MMB arrangement (Canada). We find Norway to be the only example. Using a numerical model of the Norwegian agricultural sector we show that substantial efficiency gain may be achieved by deregulating the dairy sector, mainly due to the elimination of exports. It is estimated that a transition to cost based pricing may increase the economic surplus by 1.4 billion NOK, which is 25 % of the production value. This computed gain from deregulation is far larger than for the other MMB-countries.Dairy policy; milk marketing boards; price discrimination; deregulation; numerical model.

Multifunctionality of agriculture: An inquiry into the complementarity between landscape preservation and food security

Without support, the levels of agricultural public goods will fall short of the demand in high cost countries like Norway, Finland and Iceland. However, as demonstrated in this paper using Norway as a case, the current support and agricultural activity is far out of proportions from a public goods perspective. Model simulations show that at most 40% of the current support level can be defended by the public good argument. Furthermore, the present support, stimulating high production levels, is badly targeted at the public goods in question. Since agricultural land is a major component of both food security and landscape preservation, thus giving rise to a high degree of cost complementarities between the two public goods, it would be more efficient to support land extensive production techniques, than production per se.Food security; landscape preservation; public goods; agricultural policy; numerical model.

Multifunctionality of Agriculture: An Inquiry Into the Complementarity Between Landscape Preservation and Food Security

Without support, the levels of agricultural public goods will fall short of the demand in high cost countries like Norway, Finland and Iceland. However, as demonstrated in this paper using Norway as a case, the current support and agricultural activity is far out of proportions from a public goods perspective. Model simulations show that at most 40% of the current support level can be defended by the public good argument. Furthermore, the present support, stimulating high production levels, is badly targeted at the public goods in question. Since agricultural land is a major component of both food security and landscape preservation, thus giving rise to a high degree of cost complementarities between the two public goods, it would be more efficient to support land extensive production techniques, than production per se.food security, landscape preservation, public goods, agricultural policy, numerical model, Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use,

Liberalism and American Constitutional Law

A Review of Liberalism and American Constitutional Law by Rogers M. Smit

Efficiency losses in milk marketing boards - the importance of exports

A milk marketing board (MMB) is a well known instrument for regulating the markets for dairy products. MMBs are based on price discrimination, and receipts from sales are pooled so that the farmers receive a single price adjusted for composition and quality. Using a numerical model, we find that the economic welfare cost of the Norwegian MMB, is as much as 26.3% of the milk production value. This computed cost is far larger than for the other countries with MMBs. The main reasons are that exports are a major ingredient of the Norwegian system, and that production costs are very highMilk marketing boards, Norwegian dairy policy, price discrimination

Optimal agricultural policy and PSE measurement: an assessment and application to Norway

The producer support estimate calculated by the OECD is widely misused as an indicator of distortions created by agricultural policies. In this paper we demonstrate rigorously that a change in the relative (percentage) PSE is not an accurate indicator of the implications of policy reform for domestic welfare or for trade distortions. If there are positive externalities linked to agricultural inputs (e.g., land), we demonstrate that replacing output subsidies by optimal Pigouvian subsidies may result in an increase or a reduction in relative PSE depending on the parameters of the production function. Using the example of Norway we show that an increase in the relative PSE is likely if the focus of agricultural policies shifts from income support to the provision of public goods.Agricultural policy; trade distortion; domestic support; producer support estimate PSE).

Tilstandsvurdering av utvalgte skredvoller langs vegnettet i Indre Sogn, Midtre Sogn og Indre Sunnfjord

Vi har lokalisert og utført en tilstandsvurdering på 50 skredvoller langs vegnettet i Indre Sogn, Midtre Sogn og Indre Sunnfjord. Av disse hadde 25 voller god, 13 middels, 9 dårlig og 3 kritisk tilstand i september 2013. De typiske feilene ved skredvollene var ansamling av skredmateriale i magasin, dreneringsløp og skredkanal, samt erosjon av støtside. I noen tilfeller lokaliserte vi også steiner/blokker som hadde beveget seg over vollene. Våre anbefalinger er en årlig inspeksjon, slik at skredmateriale kan bli fjernet jevnlig. For flom-, sørpe- og snøskredvifter, bør skredkanalen tømmes helt opp til rotpunktet. Vi anbefaler også å bygge tørrmur oftere. Når tørrmur kun bygges i nedre del av støtsiden, bør den i de fleste tilfeller bygges enda høyere enn det som har blitt gjort. Det vil i stor grad bidra til å redusere erosjon av støtsiden. I tillegg bør flere av vollene forhøyes. To av de undersøkte skredvollene er testet mot steinsprang med RocFall simuleringer. Det er sannsynlig at blokker beveger seg over Våtedalvollen 1 og ut på E39. Det gir en uakseptabel risiko, som krever forslag til ytterligere sikringstiltak. For Storeskorvollen er det mindre sannsynlig at blokker beveger seg ut på E16. Enhetsstrekningen får tolererbar risik

Én meter til besvær - Håndteringen av koronakrisen ved Forsvarets operative hovedkvarter

Covid-19-pandemien traff verden med full kraft de tidlige månedene i 2020. I januar erklærte Verdenshelseorganisasjon utbruddet av koronaviruset en global folkehelsekrise. 12. mars besluttet Norges statsminister, Erna Solberg en omfattende nedstengning av det norske samfunnet, med tiltaksom ble omtalt som «de mest inngripende i Norge siden krigen». Forsvaret var i gang med den store fellesoperative vinterøvelsen Cold Response med mange deltakere fra inn- og utland. Ved Forsvarets operative hovedkvarter (FOH) måtte man raskt omstille seg fra å ledeårets største øvelse til å håndtere og sikre egen drift gjennom en verdens omspennende pandemi.Regjeringen og folkehelsemyndighetene innførte strenge tiltak for å slå ned koronaviruset i Norge. Tiltakene som ble innført rammet hele det norske samfunnet, og ved FOH måtte man finne frem til tiltak som sikret tilstrekkelig operativ evne gjennom en krevende periode. Tiltaket som skape de største utfordringene ved FOH var kravet om å ha henholdsvis én og to meter avstand mellom personellet. I en tid med mye usikkerhet knyttet til hvordan viruset smittet, hvor smittsomt det var og hvor farlig det var, besluttet ledelsen ved FOH å kutte bemanningen til et funksjonelt minimum i den første perioden. Beslutningen om å kutte bemanningen resulterte i at en stor del av personellet ble sendt hjem uten mulighet til å ivareta sine arbeidsoppgaver. Samtidig gav Forsvarsdepartementet ut føringer på hva forsvarssektoren skulle prioritere i perioden. Skarpe oppdrag, operativ evne og at beredskap nasjonalt og sammen med allierte skulle opprettholdes. Man skulle redusere smittefaren i sektoren og dermed bidra til å redusere risiko for smitte i samfunnet generelt og ta vare på syke i egen sektor. Den siste oppgaven var å støtte sivile myndigheter etter anmodning. Dette gav FOH handlingsrom til å prioritere hva som var viktigst. På den måten kunne man innføre tiltak som var både effektive, samtidig som FOH sørget for å løse sine oppdrag. Denne studien har avdekket at man ikke var forberedt på en pandemi i FOH, men også at de forebyggende tiltakene man innførte før 12. mars, som hånd- og hostehygiene og desinfeksjon av kontaktflater, bidro positivt gjennom hele koronakrisen. Ved å holde en konservativ linje, der råd og anbefalinger fra helsemyndighetene var å anse som et minimum, lyktes FOH i stor grad å holde smitte ute av avdelingen og man klarte å løse sine oppdrag gjennom koronakrisen

Stable and Clumped Isotope Characterization of Authigenic Carbonates in Methane Cold Seep Environments

Cold seep environments are characterized by methane-rich fluid migration and discharge at the seafloor. These environments are also intimately linked to microbial communities, which oxidize methane anaerobically, increase alkalinity and promote authigenic carbonate precipitation. We have analyzed a suite of methane-derived authigenic carbonate (MDAC) crusts from the North and Barents Sea using stable and clumped isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O, δ⁴⁴Ca, and Δ₄₇) to characterize the sources of fluids as well as the environment of carbonate authigenesis. We additionally assess the potential of MDACs as a Δ₄₇-based paleotemperature archive. The MDACs occur as three main textural-mineralogic types: micritic Mg-calcite cements, micritic aragonite cements and cavity filling aragonite cements. We find that micritic Mg-calcite cements have low δ¹³C_(VPDB) values (−30 to −47‰), high δ⁴⁴Ca_(SW) values (−0.4 to −0.8‰), and Δ₄₇-temperatures (0–6 °C) consistent with shallow sub-seafloor precipitation in isotopic equilibrium. Micritic aragonite cements and cavity filling aragonite cements both have a wider range in δ¹³C_(VPDB) values (−18 to −58‰), lower δ⁴⁴Ca_(SW) values (−0.8 to −1.6‰) and a larger range in Δ₄₇-based apparent temperatures (–2 – 25 °C) with samples displaying equilibrium and disequilibrium clumped isotope values. The range in apparent temperatures as well as δ⁴⁴Ca_(SW) values seen in the aragonite MDACs suggest two kinetic processes: a kinetic isotope effect (KIE) due to the incomplete equilibration of carbon and oxygen isotopes among DIC species from the different sources of DIC (i.e., seawater, methane-sourced DIC and DIC residual to CO₂ degassing or diffusion) and a KIE due to a fast, irreversible precipitation affecting the cations, particularly Ca, bound to carbonate mineral. Our results improve the understanding of kinetic effects on clumped isotope temperatures in MDACs and demonstrate how the multi-isotopic approach combined with textural-mineralogic criteria can be used to identify MDACs for accurate paleotemperature reconstructions