The destabilisation of existing regimes in socio-technical transitions: theoretical explorations and in-depth case studies of the British coal industry (1880-2011)

This thesis, which addresses an innovation studies audience, deals with a neglected topic in the study of socio-technical transitions: the destabilisation and decline of established industries. While most of the transitions literature focuses on the emergence of novelty, this thesis investigates the productive role of destabilisation and processes of unlocking of existing regimes. The research question is: How can we understand the unfolding of industry destabilisation processes? To answer this question, this thesis aims to make theoretical contributions by developing an integrative framework that overcomes shortcomings in existing views of destabilisation. Insights from a number of different approaches are mobilised as ‘building blocks’ for theoretical elaboration. Destabilisation is understood as a process involving: 1) multiple interacting pressures, 2) industry strategies and responses to (economic and legitimacy) challenges, and 3) decreasing commitment to industry regime rules. The theoretical perspective addresses: a) destabilisation as a long-term unfolding process, b) the multi-dimensional and co-evolutionary nature of destabilisation, and c) the role of normative problems in destabilisation. To assess the robustness of the conceptual perspective, the thesis studies three cases of destabilisation: - The destabilisation of the British coal industry in the transition from the omnipresence of coal to a four-fuel economy (1880-1967) - The destabilisation and decline of British deep coal mining in the electricity sector (1967-1997) - The destabilisation of coal use in the transition towards low-carbon electricity (1990-2011). Possible revival? The case studies show the usefulness of the conceptual framework. The analysis of patterns and causal mechanisms further identifies similarities and differences of destabilisation pathways in the cases. Specificities in the kinds, rates, interaction and timing of these dynamics produce different destabilisation patterns

The Great Reconfiguration

This book is for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners who want to understand the dynamics and governance of low-carbon transitions. It shows how UK electricity, heat, and mobility systems are being reconfigured and explains the varying speed, depth, and scope of change. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core

Exploring the role of failure in socio-technical transitions research

In this paper, we offer a comprehensive and interdisciplinary review of ‘failure’ in transitions research. What is meant by failure, and is the community biased against it? How is failure explained through different perspectives? How can failures be addressed more appropriately in transitions studies? We synthesize a large body of evidence spanning transitions studies, innovation studies, science and technology studies, organisation and management studies, policy studies and the history of technology to probe and sharpen these questions. We examine within these literatures the instances and possibilities of success with transitions and discuss why this may be problematic, organising our analysis around four types of bias (selection, cognitive, interpretive, and prescription). In addition, we review three ‘families’ of framings of failure put forward in and around the socio-technical transitions literature, notably discrete failure events, systemic failings and processual accounts of failure, and discuss how they can be constructively put to work

Guides or gatekeepers? Incumbent-oriented transition intermediaries in a low-carbon era

Transitions intermediaries—agents who connect diverse groups of actors involved in transitions processes and their skills, resources and expectations—are becoming more prominent in research on low-carbon transitions. Most work, however, has focused on their ability to push innovations or emerging technologies forward, emphasising their involvement in disrupting incumbent regimes or firms. However, in focusing on new entrants, often at the grassroots level, such literature runs the risk of overlooking the potentially positive role that incumbent transition intermediaries—those oriented to work with or centrally consider the interests of dominant government, market or civic stakeholders—can play in meeting sustainable energy and transport goals. In this paper, we focus specifically on five different incumbent transition intermediaries—Smart Energy GB in the United Kingdom, Energiesprong in the Netherlands, SULPU in Finland, CERTU in France, and the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association in Norway—and explain their efforts to meet socially desirable goals of accelerating innovation or decarbonizing energy or transport systems. We ask: Why were these intermediaries created, and what problems do they respond to? How do they function? What are their longer-term visions and strategies? What are their longer-term strategies and aspirations? In what ways do they reflect, reinforce, or otherwise shape incumbency? In answering these questions via a comparative case study approach, the paper aims to make contributions to the study of incumbency intermediation in the context of transitions, to identifying different types of incumbent intermediaries (market, governmental, civic), and to informing debates over energy and climate policy and politics

The decarbonisation divide: contextualizing landscapes of low-carbon exploitation and toxicity in Africa

Much academic research on low-carbon transitions focuses on the diffusion or use of innovations such as electric vehicles or solar panels, but overlooks or obscures downstream and upstream processes, such as mining or waste flows. Yet it is at these two extremes where emerging low-carbon transitions in mobility and electricity are effectively implicated in toxic pollution, biodiversity loss, exacerbation of gender inequality, exploitation of child labor, and the subjugation of ethnic minorities. We conceptualize these processes as part of an emerging “decarbonisation divide.” To illustrate this divide with clear insights for political ecology, sustainability transitions, and energy justice, this study draws from extensive fieldwork examining cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and the processing and recycling of electronic waste in Ghana. It utilizes original data from 34 semi-structured research interviews with experts and 69 community interviews with artisanal cobalt miners, e-waste scrapyard workers, and other stakeholders, as well as 50 site visits. These visits included 30 industrial and artisanal cobalt mines in the DRC, as well as associated infrastructure such as trading depots and processing centers, and 20 visits to the Agbogbloshie scrapyard and neighborhood alongside local waste collection sites, electrical repair shops, recycling centers, and community e-waste dumps. The study proposes a concerted set of policy recommendations for how to better address issues of exploitation and toxicity, suggestions that go beyond the often-touted solutions of formalization or financing. Ultimately, the study holds that we must all, as researchers, planners, and citizens, broaden the criteria and analytical parameters we use to evaluate the sustainability of low-carbon transitions

The politics of accelerating low-carbon transitions: towards a new research agenda

Meeting the climate change targets in the Paris Agreement implies a substantial and rapid acceleration of low-carbon transitions. Combining insights from political science, policy analysis and socio-technical transition studies, this paper addresses the politics of deliberate acceleration by taking stock of emerging examples, mobilizing relevant theoretical approaches, and articulating a new research agenda. Going beyond routine appeals for more ‘political will’, it organises ideas and examples under three themes: 1) the role of coalitions in supporting and hindering acceleration; 2) the role of feedbacks, through which policies may shape actor preferences which, in turn, create stronger policies; and 3) the role of broader contexts (political economies, institutions, cultural norms, and technical systems) in creating more (or less) favourable conditions for deliberate acceleration. We discuss the importance of each theme, briefly review previous research and articulate new research questions. Our concluding section discusses the current and potential future relationship between transitions theory and political science

Dispossessed by decarbonisation: reducing vulnerability, injustice, and inequality in the lived experience of low-carbon pathways

This study examines the justice and equity implications of four low-carbon transitions, and it reveals the “lived experiences” of decarbonisation as manifested across Africa and Europe. Based on extensive, original mixed methods empirical research – including expert interviews, focus groups, internet forums, community interviews, and extended site visits and naturalistic observation – it asks: How are four specific decarbonisation pathways linked to negative impacts within specific communities? Relatedly, what vulnerabilities do these transitions exacerbate in these communities? Lastly, how can such vulnerabilities be better addressed with policy? The paper documents a troublesome cohabitation between French wineries and nuclear power, the negative effects on labor groups and workers in Eastern Germany by a transition to solar energy, the stark embodied externalities in electronic waste (e-waste) flows from smart meters accumulating in Ghana, and the precarious exploitation of children involved in cobalt mining for electric vehicle batteries in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The aims and objectives of the study are threefold: (1) to showcase how four very different vulnerable communities have been affected by the negative impacts of decarbonisation; (2) to reveal tensions and tradeoffs between European transitions and local and global justice concerns; and (3) to inform energy and climate policy. In identifying these objectives, our goal is not to stop or slow down all low-carbon transitions. Rather, the study suggests that the research and policy communities ought to account for, and seek to minimize, a broader range of social and environmental sustainability risks. Sustainability transitions and decarbonisation pathways must become more egalitarian, fair, and just

Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: an application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe

In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. Conceptual interaction is realised through the development of two contrasting transition narratives on the role of actors in meeting the European Unions' 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction objective for 2050. The first transition narrative outlines how large-scale innovation trajectories are driven by incumbent actors, whereas the second transition narrative assumes more ‘alternative’ strategies by new entrants with strong opposition to large-scale technologies. We use the multi-level perspective to draw out plausible storylines on actor positioning and momentum of change for several technological and social niche-innovations in both transition narratives. These storylines are then translated into quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. Although both developed transition pathways align with the European Union's low-carbon objective for 2050, we find that each pathway depicts a substantial departure from systems that are known to date. Future research could focus on further systematic (joint) development of operational links between the two analytical approaches, as well as work on improved representation of demand-oriented solutions in techno-economic modelling