86 research outputs found
Don't (fully) exclude me, it's not necessary! Identification with semi-IVs
This paper proposes a novel tool to nonparametrically identify models with a
discrete endogenous variable or treatment: semi-instrumental variables
(semi-IVs). A semi-IV is a variable that is relevant but only partially
excluded from the potential outcomes, i.e., excluded from at least one, but not
necessarily all, potential outcome equations. It follows that standard
instrumental variables (IVs), which are fully excluded from all the potential
outcomes, are a special (extreme) case of semi-IVs. I show that full exclusion
is stronger than necessary because the same objects that are usually identified
with an IV (Imbens and Angrist, 1994; Heckman and Vytlacil, 2005; Chernozhukov
and Hansen, 2005) can be identified with several semi-IVs instead, provided
there is (at least) one semi-IV excluded from each potential outcome. For
applied work, tackling endogeneity with semi-IVs instead of IVs should be an
attractive alternative, since semi-IVs are easier to find: most
selection-specific costs or benefits can be valid semi-IVs, for example. The
paper also provides a simple semi-IV GMM estimator for models with homogenous
treatment effects and uses it to estimate the returns to education
Discrete-continuous dynamic choice models: identification and conditional choice probability estimation
This paper develops a general framework for models, static or dynamic, in which agents
simultaneously make both discrete and continuous choices. I show that such models are nonparametrically
identified. Based on the constructive identification arguments, I build a novel
two-step estimation method in the lineage of Hotz and Miller (1993) but extended to discrete
and continuous choice models. The method is especially attractive for complex dynamic models
because it significantly reduces the computational burden associated with their estimation. To
illustrate my new method, I estimate a dynamic model of female labor supply and consumption
Imperfect Information, Learning and Housing Market Dynamics
This paper examines the decision problem of a homeowner who maximizes her expected profitfrom the sale of her property when market conditions are uncertain. Using a large dataset of realestate transactions in Pennsylvania between 2011 and 2014, I verify several stylized facts aboutthe housing market. I develop a dynamic search model of the home-selling problem in which thehomeowner learns about demand in a Bayesian way. I estimate the model and find that learning,especially the downward adjustment of the beliefs of sellers facing low demand, explains some of thekey features of the housing data, such as the decreasing list price overtime and time on the market.By comparing with a perfect information benchmark, I derive an unexpected result: the value ofinformation is not always positive. Indeed, an imperfectly informed seller facing low demand canobtain a better outcome than her perfectly informed counterpart thanks to a delusively strongerbargaining position
Imperfect Information, Learning and Housing Market Dynamics
This paper examines the decision problem of a homeowner who maximizes her expected profitfrom the sale of her property when market conditions are uncertain. Using a large dataset of realestate transactions in Pennsylvania between 2011 and 2014, I verify several stylized facts aboutthe housing market. I develop a dynamic search model of the home-selling problem in which thehomeowner learns about demand in a Bayesian way. I estimate the model and find that learning,especially the downward adjustment of the beliefs of sellers facing low demand, explains some of thekey features of the housing data, such as the decreasing list price overtime and time on the market.By comparing with a perfect information benchmark, I derive an unexpected result: the value ofinformation is not always positive. Indeed, an imperfectly informed seller facing low demand canobtain a better outcome than her perfectly informed counterpart thanks to a delusively strongerbargaining position
Discrete-continuous dynamic choice models: identification and conditional choice probability estimation
This paper develops a general framework for models, static or dynamic, in which agents
simultaneously make both discrete and continuous choices. I show that such models are nonparametrically
identified. Based on the constructive identification arguments, I build a novel
two-step estimation method in the lineage of Hotz and Miller (1993) but extended to discrete
and continuous choice models. The method is especially attractive for complex dynamic models
because it significantly reduces the computational burden associated with their estimation. To
illustrate my new method, I estimate a dynamic model of female labor supply and consumption
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