NEW SEISMIC SOURCE ZONE MODEL FOR PORTUGAL AND AZORES

The development of seismogenic source models is one of the first steps in seismic hazard assessment. In seismic hazard terminology, seismic source zones (SSZ) are polygons (or volumes) that delineate areas with homogeneous characteristics of seismicity. The importance of using knowledge on geology, seismicity and tectonics in the definition of source zones has been recognized for a long time [1]. However, the definition of SSZ tends to be subjective and controversial. Using SSZ based on broad geology, by spreading the seismicity clusters throughout the areal extent of a zone, provides a way to account for possible long-term non-stationary seismicity behavior [2,3]. This approach effectively increases seismicity rates in regions with no significant historical or instrumental seismicity, while decreasing seismicity rates in regions that display higher rates of seismicity. In contrast, the use of SSZ based on concentrations of seismicity or spatial smoothing results in stationary behavior [4]. In the FP7 Project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe), seismic hazard will be assessed with a logic tree approach that allows for three types of branches for seismicity models: a) smoothed seismicity, b) SSZ, c) SSZ and faults. In this context, a large-scale zonation model for use in the smoothed seismicity branch, and a new consensus SSZ model for Portugal and Azores have been developed. The new models were achieved with the participation of regional experts by combining and adapting existing models and incorporating new regional knowledge of the earthquake potential. The main criteria used for delineating the SSZ include distribution of seismicity, broad geological architecture, crustal characteristics (oceanic versus continental, tectonically active versus stable, etc.), historical catalogue completeness, and the characteristics of active or potentially-active faults. This model will be integrated into an Iberian model of SSZ to be used in the Project SHARE seismic hazard assessment

COMPILATION OF ACTIVE FAULT DATA IN PORTUGAL FOR USE IN SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

To estimate where future earthquakes are likely to occur, it is essential to combine information about past earthquakes with knowledge about the location and seismogenic properties of active faults. For this reason, robust probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) integrates seismicity and active fault data. Existing seismic hazard assessments for Portugal rely exclusively on seismicity data and do not incorporate data on active faults. Project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) is an EC-funded initiative (FP7) that aims to evaluate European seismic hazards using an integrated, standardized approach. In the context of SHARE, we are developing a fully-parameterized active fault database for Portugal that incorporates existing compilations, updated according to the most recent publications. The seismogenic source model derived for SHARE will be the first model for Portugal to include fault data and follow an internationally standardized approach. This model can be used to improve both seismic hazard and risk analyses and will be combined with the Spanish database for use in Iberian- and European-scale assessments

Inventory and review of the Mio–Pleistocene São Jorge flora (Madeira Island, Portugal): palaeoecological and biogeographical implications

The occurrence of plant fossils on Madeira Island has been known since the mid-nineteenth century. Charles Lyell and George Hartung discovered a leaf bed rich in Lauraceae and fern fossils at S~ao Jorge in 1854. The determinations were controversial but a full review was never performed. Here we propose possible geological settings for the fossiliferous outcrop, and present an inventory and a systematic review of the surviving specimens of the S~ao Jorge macroflora. The S~ao Jorge leaf bed no longer outcrops due to a landslide in 1865. It was possible to establish the two alternative volcano stratigraphical settings in the sedimentary intercalations from the Middle Volcanic Complex, ranging in age from 7 to 1.8 Ma. The descriptions of Heer (1857), Bunbury (1859) and Hartung & Mayer (1864) are reviewed based on 82 surviving specimens. From the initial 37 taxa, we recognize only 20: Osmunda sp., Pteridium aquilinum, Asplenium cf. onopteris, aff. Asplenium, cf. Polystichum, cf. Davallia, Woodwardia radicans, Filicopsida gen. et sp. indet. 1 and 2, Ocotea foetens, Salix sp., Erica arborea, cf. Vaccinium, Rubus sp, cf. Myrtus, Magnoliopsida gen. et sp. indet. 1 to 3, Liliopsida gen. et sp. indet. 1. Magnoliopsida gen. et sp. indet. 4 is based on one previously undescribed flower or fruit. The floristic composition of the S~ao Jorge fossils resembles the current floristic association of temperate stink laurel (Ocotea foetens) forest, suggesting a warm and humid palaeoclimate and indicating that laurel forests were present in Macaronesia at least since the Gelasian, a time when the palaeotropical geofloral elements were almost extinct in Europe.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Incorporating Descriptive Metadata into Seismic Source Zone Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment: A case study of the Azores-West Iberian region

In probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA), seismic source zone (SSZ) models are widely used to account for the contribution to the hazard from earth- quakes not directly correlated with geological structures. Notwithstanding the impact of SSZ models in PSHA, the theoretical framework underlying SSZ models and the criteria used to delineate the SSZs are seldom explicitly stated and suitably docu- mented. In this paper, we propose a methodological framework to develop and docu- ment SSZ models, which includes (1) an assessment of the appropriate scale and degree of stationarity, (2) an assessment of seismicity catalog completeness-related issues, and (3) an evaluation and credibility ranking of physical criteria used to delin- eate the boundaries of the SSZs. We also emphasize the need for SSZ models to be supported by a comprehensive set of metadata documenting both the unique character- istics of each SSZ and the criteria used to delineate its boundaries. This procedure ensures that the uncertainties in the model can be properly addressed in the PSHA and that the model can be easily updated whenever new data are available. The pro- posed methodology is illustrated using the SSZ model developed for the Azores–West Iberian region in the context of the Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe project (project SHARE) and some of the most relevant SSZs are discussed in detail

Compilation of parameterized seismogenic sources in Iberia for the SHARE European-scale seismic source model.

Abstract: SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) is an EC-funded project (FP7) that aims to evaluate European seismic hazards using an integrated, standardized approach. In the context of SHARE, we are compiling a fully-parameterized active fault database for Iberia and the nearby offshore region. The principal goal of this initiative is for fault sources in the Iberian region to be represented in SHARE and incorporated into the source model that will be used to produce seismic hazard maps at the European scale. The SHARE project relies heavily on input from many regional experts throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region. At the SHARE regional meeting for Iberia, the 2010 Working Group on Iberian Seismogenic Sources (WGISS) was established; these researchers are contributing to this large effort by providing their data to the Iberian regional integrators in a standardized format. The development of the SHARE Iberian active fault database is occurring in parallel with IBERFAULT, another ongoing effort to compile a database of active faults in the Iberian region. The SHARE Iberian active fault database synthesizes a wide range of geological and geophysical observations on active seismogenic sources, and incorporates existing compilations (e.g., Cabral, 1995; Silva et al., 2008), original data contributed directly from researchers, data compiled from the literature, parameters estimated using empirical and analytical relationships, and, where necessary, parameters derived using expert judgment. The Iberian seismogenic source model derived for SHARE will be the first regional-scale source model for Iberia that includes fault data and follows an internationally standardized approach (Basili et al., 2008; 2009). This model can be used in both seismic hazard and risk analyses and will be appropriate for use in Iberian- and European-scale assessments

The national inventory of geological heritage: methodological approach and results

A existência de um inventário nacional de património geológico é fundamental para se poderem implementar estratégias de geoconservação. Este trabalho apresenta a metodologia usada no desenvolvimento do mais completo inventário de geossítios, realizado até ao momento em Portugal, assim como os principais resultados obtidos. O inventário vai integrar o Sistema de Informação do Património Natural e o Cadastro Nacional dos Valores Naturais Classificados, ambos geridos pelo Instituto de Conservação da Natureza e da Biodiversidade.The existence of a national inventory of the geological heritage is of paramount importance for the implementation of a geoconservation strategy. This paper presents the methodological approach used to produce the most complete geosites inventory in Portugal, so far, and the obtained results. This inventory will be uploaded into the National Database of Natural Heritage managed by the Portuguese authority for nature conservation.Este trabalho é apoiado pela Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, através do financiamento plurianual do CGUP e do projecto de investigação “Identificação, caracterização e conservação do património geológico: uma estratégia de geoconservação para Portugal” (PTDC/CTE-GEX/64966/2006).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on short-term outcome in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction during COVID-19 pandemic: insights from the international multicenter ISACS-STEMI registry

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is projected to become the third cause of mortality worldwide. COPD shares several pathophysiological mechanisms with cardiovascular disease, especially atherosclerosis. However, no definite answers are available on the prognostic role of COPD in the setting of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), especially during COVID-19 pandemic, among patients undergoing primary angioplasty, that is therefore the aim of the current study. Methods: In the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 registry we included retrospectively patients with STEMI treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) between March and June of 2019 and 2020 from 109 high-volume primary PCI centers in 4 continents. Results: A total of 15,686 patients were included in this analysis. Of them, 810 (5.2%) subjects had a COPD diagnosis. They were more often elderly and with a more pronounced cardiovascular risk profile. No preminent procedural dissimilarities were noticed except for a lower proportion of dual antiplatelet therapy at discharge among COPD patients (98.9% vs. 98.1%, P = 0.038). With regards to short-term fatal outcomes, both in-hospital and 30-days mortality occurred more frequently among COPD patients, similarly in pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 era. However, after adjustment for main baseline differences, COPD did not result as independent predictor for in-hospital death (adjusted OR [95% CI] = 0.913[0.658–1.266], P = 0.585) nor for 30-days mortality (adjusted OR [95% CI] = 0.850 [0.620–1.164], P = 0.310). No significant differences were detected in terms of SARS-CoV-2 positivity between the two groups. Conclusion: This is one of the largest studies investigating characteristics and outcome of COPD patients with STEMI undergoing primary angioplasty, especially during COVID pandemic. COPD was associated with significantly higher rates of in-hospital and 30-days mortality. However, this association disappeared after adjustment for baseline characteristics. Furthermore, COPD did not significantly affect SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Trial registration number: NCT 04412655 (2nd June 2020)

Gender Difference in the Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Mechanical Reperfusion and 30-Day Mortality for STEMI: Results of the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 Registry

Background. Several reports have demonstrated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management and outcome of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The aim of the current analysis is to investigate the potential gender difference in the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mechanical reperfusion and 30-day mortality for STEMI patients within the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 Registry. Methods. This retrospective multicenter registry was performed in high-volume primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) centers on four continents and included STEMI patients undergoing PPCIs in March–June 2019 and 2020. Patients were divided according to gender. The main outcomes were the incidence and timing of the PPCI, (ischemia time ≥ 12 h and door-to-balloon ≥ 30 min) and in-hospital or 30-day mortality. Results. We included 16683 STEMI patients undergoing PPCIs in 109 centers. In 2020 during the pandemic, there was a significant reduction in PPCIs compared to 2019 (IRR 0.843 (95% CI: 0.825–0.861, p < 0.0001). We did not find a significant gender difference in the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the numbers of STEMI patients, which were similarly reduced from 2019 to 2020 in both groups, or in the mortality rates. Compared to prepandemia, 30-day mortality was significantly higher during the pandemic period among female (12.1% vs. 8.7%; adjusted HR [95% CI] = 1.66 [1.31–2.11], p < 0.001) but not male patients (5.8% vs. 6.7%; adjusted HR [95% CI] = 1.14 [0.96–1.34], p = 0.12). Conclusions. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the treatment of patients with STEMI, with a 16% reduction in PPCI procedures similarly observed in both genders. Furthermore, we observed significantly increased in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates during the pandemic only among females. Trial registration number: NCT 04412655