Climate change and the Delta, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal

Infrared Observations During the Secondary Eclipse of HD 209458b: I. 3.6-Micron Occultation Spectroscopy Using the VLT

We search for an infrared signature of the transiting extrasolar planet HD 209458b during secondary eclipse. Our method, which we call `occultation spectroscopy,' searches for the disappearance and reappearance of weak spectral features due to the exoplanet as it passes behind the star and later reappears. We argue that at the longest infrared wavelengths, this technique becomes preferable to conventional `transit spectroscopy'. We observed the system in the wing of the strong nu-3 band of methane near 3.6 microns during two secondary eclipses, using the VLT/ISAAC spectrometer at a spectral resolution of 3300. Our analysis, which utilizes a model template spectrum, achieves sufficient precision to expect detection of the spectral structure predicted by an irradiated, low-opacity (cloudless), low-albedo, thermochemical equilibrium model for the exoplanet atmosphere. However, our observations show no evidence for the presence of this spectrum from the exoplanet, with the statistical significance of the non-detection depending on the timing of the secondary eclipse, which depends on the assumed value for the orbital eccentricity. Our results reject certain specific models of the atmosphere of HD 209458b as inconsistent with our observations at the 3-sigma level, given assumptions about the stellar and planetary parameters.Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures Accepted to Astrophysical Journa

Football Game Program 3 1965

Football Game Program 3 196

Fermionic Symmetries: Extension of the two to one Relationship Between the Spectra of Even-Even and Neighbouring Odd mass Nuclei

In the single j shell there is a two to one relationship between the spectra of certain even-even and neighbouring odd mass nuclei e.g. the calculated energy levels of J=0^+ states in ^{44}Ti are at twice the energies of corresponding levels in ^{43}Ti(^{43}Sc) with J=j=7/2. Here an approximate extension of the relationship is made by adopting a truncated seniority scheme i.e. for ^{46}Ti and ^{45}Sc we get the relationship if we do not allow the seniority v=4 states to mix with the v=0 and v=2 states. Better than that, we get very close to the two to one relationship if seniority v=4 states are admixed perturbatively. In addition, it is shown that the higher isospin states do not contain seniority 4 admixtures.Comment: 11 pages, RevTex file and no figures, typos added, references changed and changed content

Evaluating a New Shade for Feedlot Cattle Performance and Heat Stress

Heat stress in cattle results in decreased feed intake, lower daily gain, and potentially death in susceptible animals under intense conditions. A study was carried out during the summer of 2013 at the USDA-ARS U.S. Meat Animal Research Center feedlot evaluating the impact of shade on environmental conditions and cattle performance. A novel two-tiered shade was used in half of the 14 pens, each holding 30 animals. The shades were designed to reduce solar heat load by 40% to 60% and to provide traveling shade across the pen, providing varied amounts of shade area as well as varied solar reduction potential. The objective of this study was to determine if the shade was effective at improving performance (evaluated as average daily gain, feed intake, and feed to gain ratio) and reducing environmental conditions that cause heat stress. A group of mixed-breed cattle with varied genetics including both and were selected, penned on the basis of sex, and blocked by color. Production parameters of pen feed usage were measured daily, and individual body weights were taken monthly. Environmental conditions including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, ground temperature, and black globe temperature with and without shade were measured. Solar load on the pens was reduced when shade was provided, with both ground temperature and black globe temperature showing reductions. Cattle showed nominally better performance; however, no significant differences were found in gain or feed intake. Panting scores were significantly lower with shade provided; slopes of cattle respiration rate versus ambient temperature were significantly lower with shade during the afternoon period

Motives for Health Plan-Academic Health Center Relationships: Journal Review of the First Quarter Century

Motives for health plan (HP)-academic health center (AHC) relationships, including both deterrents and inducements, are explored through a review of 153 articles, published from 1970 through 1997, in academic and health care industry journals about HP-AHC relationships. Every article that met inclusion criteria was coded for year, journal, author, audience, type of article, organization of focus, purposes, priorities, affiliation motives, and issues. Peak years were 1973 (the passage of HMO legislation) and the most recent years from 1994 through 1997. The motives to affiliate were found to be different for AHCs and HPs (e.g., physician attitudes, a deterrent for AHCs and inducement for HPs; resources, a deterrent for HPs and inducement for AHCs). Increases in size of HPs and decreases in political power of AHCs have resulted in changes to motives to form relationships. Motives must be acknowledged to move from competitive to collaborative relationships.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/69080/2/10.1177_107755879905600206.pd

Gestational age impacts birth to placental weight ratio and umbilical cord oxygen values with implications for the fetal oxygen margin of safety

Background: We determined the impact of gestational age (GA) from near term to term to post-term on birth/placental weight ratio and cord oxygen values with implications for placental transport efficiency for oxygen, fetal O2 consumption relative to delivery or fractional O2 extraction, and oxygen margin of safety. Materials and methods: A hospital database was used to obtain birth/placental weight ratios, cord PO2 and other information on patients delivering between Jan 1, 1990 and Jun 15, 2011 with GA \u3e 34 completed weeks (N=69,852). Oxygen saturation was calculated from the cord PO2 and pH data, while fractional O2 extraction was calculated from the oxygen saturation data. The effect of GA grouping on birth/placental weight ratio, cord PO2, O2 saturation, and fractional O2 extraction values, was examined in all patients adjusting for pregnancy and labor/delivery covariates, and in a subset of low-risk patients. Results: Birth/placental weight ratio and umbilical venous O2 values increased with advancing GA, supporting the conjecture of increasing placental transport efficiency for oxygen. However, umbilical arterial O2 values decreased while fractional O2 extraction increased with successive GA groupings, indicating that fetal O2 consumption must be increasing relative to delivery. Conclusions: Fetal O2 consumption can be seen as ever ‘outgrowing’ O2 delivery over the last weeks of pregnancy and leading to a continued lowering in systemic oxygen levels. While this lowering in oxygen may trigger feedback mechanisms with survival benefit, the ‘oxygen margin of safety’ will also be lowered increasing perinatal morbidity and mortality which appear to be hypoxia related

Determinants of Multimethod Contraceptive Use in a Sample of Adolescent Women Diagnosed with Psychological Disorders

Objective. Despite recommendations for concurrent use of contraceptives and condoms to prevent unintended pregnancy and STIs, multimethod contraceptive use among women is poor. This study examined individual-, interpersonal-, and environmental-level factors that predict multimethod use among sexually active adolescent women diagnosed with psychological disorders. Methods. This multisite study analyzed data from 288 sexually active adolescent women who provided sociodemographic, psychosocial, and behavioral data related to birth control and condom use. Results. 34.7% of the participants reported multimethod use in the past three months. Controlling for empirically and theoretically relevant covariates, a multivariable logistic regression identified self-efficacy, multiple partners, pregnancy history, parental communication, parental norms about sex, and neighborhood cohesion as significant predictors of multimethod use. Conclusions. While continued targeted messages about multi-method contraceptive use are imperative at the individual level, an uptake in messages targeting interpersonal- and environmental-level factors such as adolescents' parents and the broader community is urgently needed

Issues in RF propagation modeling in an urban environment using the Extended Air Defense Simulation (EADSIM) mission level model.

As military operations in urban environments become more numerous, the ability of combat units to communicate, jam enemy communications, or employ RF weapons within this environment must be evaluated. To perform this evaluation in a mission level model requires a capability to evaluate the contributions of both terrain and man-made structures (interior and exterior) to RF propagation. The present study is an analysis of the adequacy of a mission level model (EADSIM) to perform these RF propagation calculations in an urban environment. Three basic environments must be assessed. The first environment consists entirely of terrain, with no man-made features impacting propagation values. The second environment includes terrain, but also includes the contribution of solid structures with abrupt edges, which may obstruct/influence LOS paths. The third environment includes not only terrain and structures, but also contains structures with interior features which must be evaluated to determine the propagation levels within and around these structures. EADSIM was used as the model for evaluation in view of its suite of propagation tools which can be used for analysis of RF propagation between transmitters and receivers including terrain. To assess EADSIM's capability to perform in these environments, flat terrain maps with an obstruction were created to permit comparison of EADSIM's propagation models with analytical calculations and with measurements. Calculations from the Terrain Integrated Rough Earth Model (TIREM) and the Spherical Earth Knife Edge (SEKE) propagation models included within EADSIM showed that the ability of the models to calculate knife-edge diffraction agreed favorably with analytical values. The representation of multipath effects was less encouraging. SEKE only models multipath when Fresnel clearance exists. TIREM models multipath, but the cyclical characteristics of multipath are not represented, and only subtractive path loss is considered. Multipath is only evaluated along a 2-D path in the vertical orientation. This precludes modeling propagation in the urban canyons of metropolitan areas, where horizontal paths are dominant. It also precludes modeling exterior to interior propagation. In view of the apparent inadequacy of urban propagation within mission level models, as evidenced by EADSIM, the study also attempts to address possible solutions to the problem. Correction of the sparsing techniques in both TIREM and SEKE models is recommended. Both SEKE and TIREM are optimized for DTED level 1 data, sparsed at 3 arc seconds resolution. This led to significant errors when map data was sparsed at higher or lower resolution. TIREM's errors would be significantly reduced if the 999 point array limit was eliminated. This would permit using interval sizes equal to the map resolution for larger areas. This same problem could be fixed in SEKE by changing the interval spacing from a fixed 3 arc second resolution ({approx}93 meters) to an interval which is set at the map resolution. Additionally, the cell elevation interpolation method which TIREM uses is inappropriate for the man-made structures encountered in urban environments. Turning this method of determining height off, or providing a selectable switch is desired. In the near term, it appears that further research into ray-tracing models is appropriate. Codes such as RF-ProTEC, which can be dynamically linked to mission level models such as EADSIM, can provide the higher fidelity propagation calculations required, and still permit the dynamic interactions required of the mission level model. Additional research should also be conducted on the best methods of representing man-made structures to determine whether codes other than ray-trace can be used