Climate Change Affects Winter Chill for Temperate Fruit and Nut Trees

Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields.We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the "Dynamic Model" and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG.The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops

Calibration Uncertainty for Advanced LIGO's First and Second Observing Runs

Calibration of the Advanced LIGO detectors is the quantification of the detectors' response to gravitational waves. Gravitational waves incident on the detectors cause phase shifts in the interferometer laser light which are read out as intensity fluctuations at the detector output. Understanding this detector response to gravitational waves is crucial to producing accurate and precise gravitational wave strain data. Estimates of binary black hole and neutron star parameters and tests of general relativity require well-calibrated data, as miscalibrations will lead to biased results. We describe the method of producing calibration uncertainty estimates for both LIGO detectors in the first and second observing runs.Comment: 15 pages, 21 figures, LIGO DCC P160013

Spectra and Light Curves of Failed Supernovae

Astronomers have proposed a number of mechanisms to produce supernova explosions. Although many of these mechanisms are now not considered primary engines behind supernovae, they do produce transients that will be observed by upcoming ground-based surveys and NASA satellites. Here we present the first radiation-hydrodynamics calculations of the spectra and light curves from three of these "failed" supernovae: supernovae with considerable fallback, accretion induced collapse of white dwarfs, and energetic helium flashes (also known as type .Ia supernovae).Comment: 33 pages, 14 figure

Timescales of spike-train correlation for neural oscillators with common drive

We examine the effect of the phase-resetting curve (PRC) on the transfer of correlated input signals into correlated output spikes in a class of neural models receiving noisy, super-threshold stimulation. We use linear response theory to approximate the spike correlation coefficient in terms of moments of the associated exit time problem, and contrast the results for Type I vs. Type II models and across the different timescales over which spike correlations can be assessed. We find that, on long timescales, Type I oscillators transfer correlations much more efficiently than Type II oscillators. On short timescales this trend reverses, with the relative efficiency switching at a timescale that depends on the mean and standard deviation of input currents. This switch occurs over timescales that could be exploited by downstream circuits

Method to estimate ISCO and ring-down frequencies in binary systems and consequences for gravitational wave data analysis

Recent advances in the description of compact binary systems have produced gravitational waveforms that include inspiral, merger and ring-down phases. Comparing results from numerical simulations with those of post-Newtonian (PN), and related, expansions has provided motivation for employing PN waveforms in near merger epochs when searching for gravitational waves and has encouraged the development of analytic fits to full numerical waveforms. The models and simulations do not yet cover the full binary coalescence parameter space. For these yet un-simulated regions, data analysts can still conduct separate inspiral, merger and ring-down searches. Improved knowledge about the end of the inspiral phase, the beginning of the merger, and the ring-down frequencies could increase the efficiency of both coherent inspiral-merger-ring-down (IMR) searches and searches over each phase separately. Insight can be gained for all three cases through a recently presented theoretical calculation, which, corroborated by the numerical results, provides an implicit formula for the final spin of the merged black holes, accurate to within 10% over a large parameter space. Knowledge of the final spin allows one to predict the end of the inspiral phase and the quasinormal mode ring-down frequencies, and in turn provides information about the bandwidth and duration of the merger. In this work we will discuss a few of the implications of this calculation for data analysis.Comment: Added references to section 3 14 pages 5 figures. Submitted to Classical and Quantum Gravit