The Value Line Enigma Extended - An Examination Of the Performance Of Option Recommendations

We extend the research on the Value Line Enigma by examining the performance of call recommendations in Value Line Options. Galai\u27s hedge decomposition procedure identifies the components of the calls\u27 returns. Abnormal call returns were most pronounced immediately following the purchase, which is consistent with studies of Value Line\u27s stock rankings. The largest and most significant abnormal performance was by calls assigned the highest rank written on stocks judged by Value Line to be correctly priced. Abnormal call return performance by joint call and stock ranks was consistent with the hypothesis that Value Line identifies underpriced call options

Herding and Anchoring in Macroeconomic Forecasts: The Case of the PMI

We test if analysts display multiple biases in forecasting the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). We adopt a test that does not require knowledge of the forecaster’s prior information set and is robust to rational clustering, correlated forecast errors and outliers. We find that analysts forecast the PMI poorly and display multiple biases when forecasting. In particular, forecasters anti-herd and anti-anchor. Anti-herding supports a reputation-based notion that forecasters are rewarded not only for forecast accuracy but also for being the best forecast at a single point in time. Anti-anchoring is consistent with forecasters overreacting to private information. The two biases show a strong positive correlation suggesting that the incentives that elicit anti-herding also elicit anti-anchoring behavior. Both biases result in larger absolute errors, although the effect is stronger for anti-herding

The Economics of Residential Solar Panels: Comparing Tiered and Time of Use Plans

This case study uses data from a Southern California Edison residential customer on a grandfathered tiered rate plan to investigate 1) whether it is economically beneficial for the customer to switch from a tiered-rate plan to a Time-of-Use (TOU) plan, 2) whether going solar now makes financial sense for new solar customers, 3) what level of usage offset (the percentage of the customer’s annual electricity consumption that is provided by the solar panels) would result in the maximum financial benefit for the customer under each of the many TOU plans, and 4) whether solar customers on TOU plans can save substantially by time shifting small amounts of electricity usage from peak periods to off peak periods. We find that, by and large, there is no compelling reason for solar customers on the grandfathered tiered rate plans to switch to TOU plans. Solar panels continue to be an excellent investment for customers thinking of going solar, and the ideal usage offset for this customer (and others on TOU rate plans) is in the 103% - 107% range. That is, savings are maximized when solar panels produce 103% - 107% of the customers’ annual electricity consumption. Finally, we find that shifting a modest amount of consumption from peak rate hours to off peak hours during the two months of maximum electricity consumption will result in significant savings

The Economics of Battery Storage for Residential Solar Customers in Southern California

Battery storage coupled with solar panels became a consideration after the original net metering program in California (NEM 1.0) ended and gave way to the current net metering program (NEM 2.0). Under NEM 2.0, battery storage gives customers under time-of-use (TOU) rate plans the ability to store the excess electrical energy generated by their panels during sunlight hours (when electricity usage and resale rates are low) and then use that energy in the evening when rates are significantly higher. This reduces the amount of expensive electricity that the customer would have to purchase from the grid. It is widely expected that the current net metering program in California will be replaced by a more restrictive and much less financially attractive program when NEM 3.0 goes into effect in early 2022. The impending introduction of NEM 3.0 has accelerated the rate at which homeowners are installing solar panel arrays and battery storage. In this paper we examine the economics of installing battery storage for residential customers and examine whether battery storage makes financial sense. We use public data to model the electricity bills for an average sized residential customer in southern California and examine how much money this customer can save using battery storage under the current rate plans

The Economics of Residential Solar Panels: A Comparison of Energy Charges for Different Load Profiles, Rate Plans, and Panel Orientations

This paper examines the effect of different residential electrical load profiles (electrical energy consumption patterns within a day) on energy charges for customers with solar panels under different Southern California Edison time-of-use (TOU) rate plans. We identify the TOU plan which would be the most cost effective for solar customers with each load profile. The impact of the orientation of the solar panel array (whether it faces south or west or east) and shading patterns on electricity charges are examined. We also determine the ideal usage offset (the percentage of electricity consumption provided by the solar array) for the various scenarios presented in this paper. We perform these analyses using actual data for the average sized residential customer of Southern California Edison. While the data we examine are based on solar panel production estimates for southern California, the issues we address, and the methods we use, are applicable to virtually any locality. And our analysis reveals how myriad factors impact the economics of residential solar panel systems regardless of location

Profiling Phospholipids within Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar with Regards to a Novel Terrestrial Omega-3 Oil Source

The development and inclusion of novel oils derived from genetically modified (GM) oilseeds into aquafeeds, to supplement and supplant current terrestrial oilseeds, as well as fish oils, warrants a more thorough investigation into lipid biochemical alterations within finfish species, such as Atlantic salmon. Five tissues were examined across two harvesting timepoints to establish whether lipid isomeric alterations could be detected between a standard commercial diet versus a diet that incorporated the long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFA), EPA (eicosapentaenoic acid), and DHA (docosahexaenoic acid), derived from the GM oilseed Camelina sativa. Tissue-dependent trends were detected, indicating that certain organs, such as the brain, have a basal limit to LC-PUFA incorporation, though enrichment of these fatty acids is possible. Lipid acyl alterations, as well as putative stereospecific numbering (sn) isomer alterations, were also detected, providing evidence that GM oils may modify lipid structure, with lipids of interest providing a set of targeted markers by which lipid alterations can be monitored across various novel diets

Structure and dynamics of the interface between a binary hard-sphere crystal of NaCl type and its coexisting binary fluid

Molecular dynamics simulations are performed to study the [100] and [111] orientations of the crystal-melt interface between an ordered two-component hard sphere with a NaCl structure and its coexisting binary hard-sphere fluid. The diameter ratio of the two types of hard spheres making up the mixture is taken to be 0.414. This work complements our earlier interface simulations [J. Chem. Phys.116, 3410] for the same diameter ratio at lower pressures where the smaller component is immiscible in the solid and the fluid mixture coexists with a pure FCC crystal of large particles. Density profiles and diffusion coefficient profiles are presented for the AB interfacial system. We find that for this system, the transition from crystal-like to fluid-like behavior of both the density and diffusion constant profiles occurs over a narrower region than that seen in our previous studies [J. Chem. Phys. 116, 3410] of the FCC/binary fluid system. But similar to what was found in the FCC/binary fluid interface the transition region for the large particle diffusion constant is shifted about the size of the large particles toward the fluid phase relative to that for the small particles.Comment: 8 page

Sequence analysis of a DNA fragment from Sinorhizobium fredii USDA257 which extends the nitrogen fixation host range of Rhizobium species NGR234 to soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr cultivar Peking

A fragment of DNA (pBTBX) from the genome ofSinorhizobium fredii USDA257 was sequenced by shotgun strategy to identify the potential genes which enabled theRhizobium species NGR234 to fix nitrogen on soybean,Glycine max (L.) Merr cv. Peking. The total length of the cosmid is 32,824 base pairs with a GC content of 61%. A 29 open reading frames (ORF) were identified representing 71.8% (23,574 bp) of the cosmid. Out of these ORF, 96.5% (22,749 bp) were identical and similar to reported and hypothetical genes and proteins. The remaining 3.5% (825 bp) had no apparent similarity to any genes in the data base. Gene and gene products found on the DNA fragment include those involved in the synthesis of FeMo component of nitrogenase, regulation of nitrogen fixation, transport of amino acids and sugars, chemotaxis and transcriptional regulatio

The Economics of Residential Solar and Battery Storage: Analyzing the Impact of the Joint IOU Proposal for Net Metering 3.0 in California

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) is currently deciding on the structure of the next net metering program, which will determine how customers who install solar panels (and battery storage) under this new program will be compensated for excess energy that they export to the grid, and the additional fees that these solar customers will have to pay. The major investor-owned utility (IOU) companies in the state and some legislators have argued that the current net metering programs are far too generous to the customers and that they create an inequity by favoring the wealthy and causing a cost shift to the poorer non-solar customers. The IOUs have jointly proposed a set of regulations to the CPUC. In this paper, we examine the financial implications to residential customers who go solar under the new net metering program if the joint IOU proposal were to be adopted. We examine the case of a hypothetical southern California home that consumes the average amount of electricity (for that region) and estimate its electricity bills for various load profiles, assuming no solar or battery storage, with solar alone, and with solar and battery storage. For the two latter scenarios, we determine the ideal system configuration that will maximize the customer’s financial returns. In all cases, we determine that the joint IOU proposal for net metering will make residential solar panel and battery storage installations financially unattractive even in the best-case scenarios. In short, if the CPUC adopts the joint IOU proposal then residential solar installations in the state would likely come to an abrupt stop. We also analyze the economics of going off-grid (where a customer completely cuts himself off from the electrical grid) and find that it does not make sense for customers to go off-grid without being willing to cut consumption or make other compromises

Adjusting the melting point of a model system via Gibbs-Duhem integration: application to a model of Aluminum

Model interaction potentials for real materials are generally optimized with respect to only those experimental properties that are easily evaluated as mechanical averages (e.g., elastic constants (at T=0 K), static lattice energies and liquid structure). For such potentials, agreement with experiment for the non-mechanical properties, such as the melting point, is not guaranteed and such values can deviate significantly from experiment. We present a method for re-parameterizing any model interaction potential of a real material to adjust its melting temperature to a value that is closer to its experimental melting temperature. This is done without significantly affecting the mechanical properties for which the potential was modeled. This method is an application of Gibbs-Duhem integration [D. Kofke, Mol. Phys.78, 1331 (1993)]. As a test we apply the method to an embedded atom model of aluminum [J. Mei and J.W. Davenport, Phys. Rev. B 46, 21 (1992)] for which the melting temperature for the thermodynamic limit is 826.4 +/- 1.3K - somewhat below the experimental value of 933K. After re-parameterization, the melting temperature of the modified potential is found to be 931.5K +/- 1.5K.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, 4 table