Earliest Holocene south Greenland ice sheet retreat within its late Holocene extent

Early Holocene summer warmth drove dramatic Greenland ice sheet (GIS) retreat. Subsequent insolation-driven cooling caused GIS margin readvance to late Holocene maxima, from which ice margins are now retreating. We use 10Be surface exposure ages from four locations between 69.4°N and 61.2°N to date when in the early Holocene south to west GIS margins retreated to within these late Holocene maximum extents. We find that this occurred at 11.1 ± 0.2 ka to 10.6 ± 0.5 ka in south Greenland, significantly earlier than previous estimates, and 6.8 ± 0.1 ka to 7.9 ± 0.1 ka in southwest to west Greenland, consistent with existing 10Be ages. At least in south Greenland, these 10Be ages likely provide a minimum constraint for when on a multicentury timescale summer temperatures after the last deglaciation warmed above late Holocene temperatures in the early Holocene. Current south Greenland ice margin retreat suggests that south Greenland may have now warmed to or above earliest Holocene summer temperatures

Atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years: A high-resolution record from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core

We report a decadally resolved record of atmospheric CO2 concentration for the last 1000 years, obtained from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide shallow ice core. The most prominent feature of the pre‐industrial period is a rapid ∼7 ppm decrease of CO2 in a span of ∼20–50 years at ∼1600 A.D. This observation confirms the timing of an abrupt atmospheric CO2 decrease of ∼10 ppm observed for that time period in the Law Dome ice core CO2 records, but the true magnitude of the decrease remains unclear. Atmospheric CO2 variations over the time period 1000–1800 A.D. are statistically correlated with northern hemispheric climate and tropical Indo‐Pacific sea surface temperature. However, the exact relationship between CO2 and climate remains elusive due to regional climate variations and/or uneven geographical data density of paleoclimate records. We observe small differences of 0 ∼ 2% (0 ∼ 6 ppm) among the high‐precision CO2 records from the Law Dome, EPICA Dronning Maud Land and WAIS Divide Antarctic ice cores. However, those records share common trends of CO2 change on centennial to multicentennial time scales, and clearly show that atmospheric CO2 has been increasing above preindustrial levels since ∼1850 A.D

Germline DNA Repair Gene Mutations in Young-onset Prostate Cancer Cases in the UK: Evidence for a More Extensive Genetic Panel

Background Rare germline mutations in DNA repair genes are associated with prostate cancer (PCa) predisposition and prognosis. Objective To quantify the frequency of germline DNA repair gene mutations in UK PCa cases and controls, in order to more comprehensively evaluate the contribution of individual genes to overall PCa risk and likelihood of aggressive disease. Design, setting, and participants We sequenced 167 DNA repair and eight PCa candidate genes in a UK-based cohort of 1281 young-onset PCa cases (diagnosed at ≤60 yr) and 1160 selected controls. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Gene-level SKAT-O and gene-set adaptive combination of p values (ADA) analyses were performed separately for cases versus controls, and aggressive (Gleason score ≥8, n = 201) versus nonaggressive (Gleason score ≤7, n = 1048) cases. Results and limitations We identified 233 unique protein truncating variants (PTVs) with minor allele frequency <0.5% in controls in 97 genes. The total proportion of PTV carriers was higher in cases than in controls (15% vs 12%, odds ratio [OR] = 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.64, p = 0.036). Gene-level analyses selected NBN (pSKAT-O = 2.4 × 10−4) for overall risk and XPC (pSKAT-O = 1.6 × 10−4) for aggressive disease, both at candidate-level significance (p < 3.1 × 10−4 and p < 3.4 × 10−4, respectively). Gene-set analysis identified a subset of 20 genes associated with increased PCa risk (OR = 3.2, 95% CI 2.1–4.8, pADA = 4.1 × 10−3) and four genes that increased risk of aggressive disease (OR = 11.2, 95% CI 4.6–27.7, pADA = 5.6 × 10−3), three of which overlap the predisposition gene set. Conclusions The union of the gene-level and gene-set-level analyses identified 23 unique DNA repair genes associated with PCa predisposition or risk of aggressive disease. These findings will help facilitate the development of a PCa-specific sequencing panel with both predictive and prognostic potential. Patient summary This large sequencing study assessed the rate of inherited DNA repair gene mutations between prostate cancer patients and disease-free men. A panel of 23 genes was identified, which may improve risk prediction or treatment pathways in future clinical practice

Atmospheric methane variability: Centennial-scale signals in the Last Glacial Period

In order to understand atmospheric methane (CH$_{4}$) biogeochemistry now and in the future, we must apprehend its natural variability, without anthropogenic influence. Samples of ancient air trapped within ice cores provide the means to do this. Here we analyze the ultrahigh-resolution CH$_{4}$ record of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core 67.2–9.8 ka and find novel, atmospheric CH$_{4}$ variability at centennial time scales throughout the record. This signal is characterized by recurrence intervals within a broad 80–500 year range, but we find that age-scale uncertainties complicate the possible isolation of any periodic frequency. Lower signal amplitudes in the Last Glacial relative to the Holocene may be related to incongruent effects of firn-based signal smoothing processes. Within interstadial and stadial periods, the peak-to-peak signal amplitudes vary in proportion to the underlying millennial-scale oscillations in CH$_{4}$ concentration—the relative amplitude change is constant. We propose that the centennial CH$_{4}$ signal is related to tropical climate variability that influences predominantly low-latitude wetland CH$_{4}$ emissions.This study was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) grants 0944552, 1142041, and 0968391 to E.J.B. and 0839093 and 1142166 to J.R.M. A European Union Horizon 2020 Marie Curie Individual Fellowship (grant 58120, SEADOG) provided partial support for R.H.R. This work also benefitted from funding to X.F. from the French RPD COCLICO ANR program (ANR-10-RPDOC-002-01), the INSU/LEFE project IceChrono, and the Ars Cuttoli foundation and additionally from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/P009271/1 awarded to L.C.S. Grateful thanks to B. Tournadre for help in Fletcher Promontory ice core analysis. The authors appreciate the support of the WAIS Divide Science Coordination Office at the Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, USA, and University of New Hampshire, USA, for the collection and distribution of the WD ice core (NSF grants 0230396, 0440817, 0944348, and 0944266). We are grateful to all participants in the field effort led by K. Taylor. The NSF Office of Polar Programs also funded the Ice Drilling Program Office and Ice Drilling Design and Operations group, the National Ice Core Laboratory, Raytheon Polar Services, and the 109th New York Air National Guard

Atmospheric methane variability: Centennial-scale signals in the Last Glacial Period

In order to understand atmospheric methane (CH$_{4}$) biogeochemistry now and in the future, we must apprehend its natural variability, without anthropogenic influence. Samples of ancient air trapped within ice cores provide the means to do this. Here we analyze the ultrahigh-resolution CH$_{4}$ record of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core 67.2–9.8 ka and find novel, atmospheric CH$_{4}$ variability at centennial time scales throughout the record. This signal is characterized by recurrence intervals within a broad 80–500 year range, but we find that age-scale uncertainties complicate the possible isolation of any periodic frequency. Lower signal amplitudes in the Last Glacial relative to the Holocene may be related to incongruent effects of firn-based signal smoothing processes. Within interstadial and stadial periods, the peak-to-peak signal amplitudes vary in proportion to the underlying millennial-scale oscillations in CH$_{4}$ concentration—the relative amplitude change is constant. We propose that the centennial CH$_{4}$ signal is related to tropical climate variability that influences predominantly low-latitude wetland CH$_{4}$ emissions.This study was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) grants 0944552, 1142041, and 0968391 to E.J.B. and 0839093 and 1142166 to J.R.M. A European Union Horizon 2020 Marie Curie Individual Fellowship (grant 58120, SEADOG) provided partial support for R.H.R. This work also benefitted from funding to X.F. from the French RPD COCLICO ANR program (ANR-10-RPDOC-002-01), the INSU/LEFE project IceChrono, and the Ars Cuttoli foundation and additionally from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/P009271/1 awarded to L.C.S. Grateful thanks to B. Tournadre for help in Fletcher Promontory ice core analysis. The authors appreciate the support of the WAIS Divide Science Coordination Office at the Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, USA, and University of New Hampshire, USA, for the collection and distribution of the WD ice core (NSF grants 0230396, 0440817, 0944348, and 0944266). We are grateful to all participants in the field effort led by K. Taylor. The NSF Office of Polar Programs also funded the Ice Drilling Program Office and Ice Drilling Design and Operations group, the National Ice Core Laboratory, Raytheon Polar Services, and the 109th New York Air National Guard

Ice core measurements of 14CH4 show no evidence of methane release from methane hydrates or old permafrost carbon during a large warming event 11,600 years ago

Thawing permafrost and marine methane hydrate destabilization in the Arctic and elsewhere have been proposed as large sources of methane to the atmosphere in the future warming world. To evaluate this hypothesis it is useful to ask whether such methane releases happened during past warming events. The two major abrupt warming events of the last deglaciation, Oldest Dryas - Bølling (OD-B, ≈ 14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas - Preboreal (YD-PB; ≈11,600 years ago), were associated with large (up to 50%) increases in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations. The sources of these large warming-driven CH4 increases remain incompletely understood, with possible contributions from tropical and boreal wetlands, thawing permafrost as well as marine CH4 hydrates. We present new measurements of 14C of paleoatmospheric CH4 over the YD-PB transition from ancient ice outcropping at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. 14C can unambiguously identify CH4 emissions from "old carbon" sources, such as permafrost and CH4 hydrates. The only prior study of paleoatmospheric 14CH4 (from Greenland ice) suggested that wetlands were the main driver of the YD-PB CH4 increase, but the results were weakened by an unexpected and poorly understood 14CH4 component from in situ cosmogenic production directly in near-surface ice. In this new study, we have been able to accurately characterize and correct for the cosmogenic 14CH4 component. All samples from before, during and after the abrupt warming and associated CH4 increase yielded 14CH4 values that are consistent with 14C of atmospheric CO2 at that time, indicating a purely contemporaneous methane source. These new measurements rule out the possibility of large CH4 releases to the atmosphere from methane hydrates or old permafrost carbon in response to the large and rapid YD-PB warming. To the extent that the characteristics of the YD-PB warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric methane increases from old carbon sources in the Arctic are unlikely. Instead, our measurements indicate that global wetlands will likely respond to the warming with increased methane emissions. © European Geosciences UnionYellow Posters session, Y7

Global ocean heat content in the Last Interglacial

The Last Interglacial (129-116 ka) represents one of the warmest climate intervals of the last 800,000 years and the most recent time when sea level was meters higher than today. However, the timing and magnitude of peak warmth varies between reconstructions, and the relative importance of individual sources contributing to elevated sea level (mass gain versus seawater expansion) during the Last Interglacial remains uncertain. Here we present the first mean ocean temperature record for this interval from noble gas measurements in ice cores and constrain the thermal expansion contribution to sea level. Mean ocean temperature reaches its maximum value of 1.1±0.3°C warmer-than-modern at the end of the penultimate deglaciation at 129 ka, resulting in 0.7±0.3m of elevated sea level, relative to present. However, this maximum in ocean heat content is a transient feature; mean ocean temperature decreases in the first several thousand years of the interglacial and achieves a stable, comparable-to-modern value by ~127 ka. The synchroneity of the peak in mean ocean temperature with proxy records of abrupt transitions in oceanic and atmospheric circulation suggests that the mean ocean temperature maximum is related to the accumulation of heat in the ocean interior during the preceding period of reduced overturning circulation