Artificial intelligence for detection of microsatellite instability in colorectal cancer-a multicentric analysis of a pre-screening tool for clinical application.

BACKGROUND Microsatellite instability (MSI)/mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR) is a key genetic feature which should be tested in every patient with colorectal cancer (CRC) according to medical guidelines. Artificial intelligence (AI) methods can detect MSI/dMMR directly in routine pathology slides, but the test performance has not been systematically investigated with predefined test thresholds. METHOD We trained and validated AI-based MSI/dMMR detectors and evaluated predefined performance metrics using nine patient cohorts of 8343 patients across different countries and ethnicities. RESULTS Classifiers achieved clinical-grade performance, yielding an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of up to 0.96 without using any manual annotations. Subsequently, we show that the AI system can be applied as a rule-out test: by using cohort-specific thresholds, on average 52.73% of tumors in each surgical cohort [total number of MSI/dMMR = 1020, microsatellite stable (MSS)/ proficient mismatch repair (pMMR) = 7323 patients] could be identified as MSS/pMMR with a fixed sensitivity at 95%. In an additional cohort of N = 1530 (MSI/dMMR = 211, MSS/pMMR = 1319) endoscopy biopsy samples, the system achieved an AUROC of 0.89, and the cohort-specific threshold ruled out 44.12% of tumors with a fixed sensitivity at 95%. As a more robust alternative to cohort-specific thresholds, we showed that with a fixed threshold of 0.25 for all the cohorts, we can rule-out 25.51% in surgical specimens and 6.10% in biopsies. INTERPRETATION When applied in a clinical setting, this means that the AI system can rule out MSI/dMMR in a quarter (with global thresholds) or half of all CRC patients (with local fine-tuning), thereby reducing cost and turnaround time for molecular profiling

Assessment of individual tumor buds using keratin immunohistochemistry: moderate interobserver agreement suggests a role for machine learning

Tumor budding is a promising and cost-effective biomarker with strong prognostic value in colorectal cancer. However, challenges related to interobserver variability persist. Such variability may be reduced by immunohistochemistry and computer-aided tumor bud selection. Development of computer algorithms for this purpose requires unequivocal examples of individual tumor buds. As such, we undertook a large-scale, international, and digital observer study on individual tumor bud assessment. From a pool of 46 colorectal cancer cases with tumor budding, 3000 tumor bud candidates were selected, largely based on digital image analysis algorithms. For each candidate bud, an image patch (size 256 x 256 mu m) was extracted from a pan cytokeratin-stained whole-slide image. Members of an International Tumor Budding Consortium (n = 7) were asked to categorize each candidate as either (1) tumor bud, (2) poorly differentiated cluster, or (3) neither, based on current definitions. Agreement was assessed with Cohens and Fleiss Kappa statistics. Fleiss Kappa showed moderate overall agreement between observers (0.42 and 0.51), while Cohens Kappas ranged from 0.25 to 0.63. Complete agreement by all seven observers was present for only 34% of the 3000 tumor bud candidates, while 59% of the candidates were agreed on by at least five of the seven observers. Despite reports of moderate-to-substantial agreement with respect to tumor budding grade, agreement with respect to individual pan cytokeratin-stained tumor buds is moderate at most. A machine learning approach may prove especially useful for a more robust assessment of individual tumor buds