Asymmetry, realised volatility and stock return risk estimates

In this paper we estimate minimum capital risk requirements for short and long positions with three investment horizons, using the traditional GARCH model and two other GARCH-type models that incorporate the possibility of asymmetric responses of volatility to price changes. We also address the problem of the extremely high estimated persistence of the GARCH model to generate observed volatility patterns by including realised volatility as an explanatory variable into the model’s variance equation. The results suggest that the inclusion of realised volatility improves the GARCH forecastability as well as its ability to calculate accurate minimum capital risk requirements and makes it quite competitive when compared with asymmetric conditional heteroscedastic models such as the GJR and the EGARCH.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Roaring high and low: composition and possible functions of the Iberian stag's vocal repertoire

We provide a detailed description of the rutting vocalisations of free-ranging male Iberian deer (Cervus elaphus hispanicus, Hilzheimer 1909), a geographically isolated and morphologically differentiated subspecies of red deer Cervus elaphus. We combine spectrographic examinations, spectral analyses and automated classifications to identify different call types, and compare the composition of the vocal repertoire with that of other red deer subspecies. Iberian stags give bouts of roars (and more rarely, short series of barks) that are typically composed of two different types of calls. Long Common Roars are mostly given at the beginning or at the end of the bout, and are characterised by a high fundamental frequency (F0) resulting in poorly defined formant frequencies but a relatively high amplitude. In contrast, Short Common Roars are typically given in the middle or at the end of the bout, and are characterised by a lower F0 resulting in relatively well defined vocal tract resonances, but low amplitude. While we did not identify entirely Harsh Roars (as described in the Scottish red deer subspecies (Cervus elaphus scoticus), a small percentage of Long Common Roars contained segments of deterministic chaos. We suggest that the evolution of two clearly distinct types of Common Roars may reflect divergent selection pressures favouring either vocal efficiency in high pitched roars or the communication of body size in low-pitched, high spectral density roars highlighting vocal tract resonances. The clear divergence of the Iberian red deer vocal repertoire from those of other documented European red deer populations reinforces the status of this geographical variant as a distinct subspecies

Elevated Ratio of Urinary Metabolites of Thromboxane and Prostacyclin Is Associated with Adverse Cardiovascular Events in ADAPT

Results from prevention trials, including the Alzheimer's Disease Anti-inflammatory Prevention Trial (ADAPT), have fueled discussion about the cardiovascular (CV) risks associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). We tested the hypotheses that (i) adverse CV events reported among ADAPT participants (aged 70 years and older) are associated with increased ratio of urine 11-dehydrothromboxane B2 (Tx-M) to 2′3-donor–6-keto-PGF1 (PGI-M) attributable to NSAID treatments; (ii) coincident use of aspirin (ASA) would attenuate NSAID-induced changes in Tx-M/PGI-M ratio; and (iii) use of NSAIDs and/or ASA would not alter urine or plasma concentrations of F2-isoprostanes (IsoPs), in vivo biomarkers of free radical damage. We quantified urine Tx-M and PGI-M, and urine and plasma F2-IsoPs from 315 ADAPT participants using stable isotope dilution assays with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, and analyzed these data by randomized drug assignment and self-report compliance as well as ASA use. Adverse CV events were significantly associated with higher urine Tx-M/PGI-M ratio, which seemed to derive mainly from lowered PGI-M. Participants taking ASA alone had reduced urine Tx-M/PGI-M compared to no ASA or NSAID; however, participants taking NSAIDs plus ASA did not have reduced urine Tx-M/PGI-M ratio compared to NSAIDs alone. Neither NSAID nor ASA use altered plasma or urine F2-IsoPs. These data suggest a possible mechanism for the increased risk of CV events reported in ADAPT participants assigned to NSAIDs, and suggest that the changes in the Tx-M/PGI-M ratio was not substantively mitigated by coincident use of ASA in individuals 70 years or older

Improving T-Cell Assays for the Diagnosis of Latent TB Infection: Potential of a Diagnostic Test Based on IP-10

Background There is a need for simple tools such as the M.tuberculosis specific IFN-γ release assays (IGRA) to improve diagnosis of M.tuberculosis-infection in children. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of an IP-10 and IL-2 based tests for the diagnosis of M.tuberculosis-infection in recently exposed children from Nigeria. Methodology and Principal Findings Samples were obtained from 59 children at high risk of infection with M.tuberculosis (contacts of adults with smear and culture-positive tuberculosis) and 61 at low risk (contacts of smear-negative/culture-positive tuberculosis or community controls). IP-10 and IL-2 was measured in plasma after stimulation of whole-blood with M.tuberculosis specific antigens and mitogen. Previously developed criteria for positive IP-10 and IL-2 tests were used and the diagnostic performances of the IP-10 and IL-2 tests were compared with the Quantiferon In-Tube (QFT-IT) and the Tuberculin Skin Tests (TST). In response to M.tuberculosis specific antigens, the high-risk children expressed significantly higher levels of IP-10 (1358 pg/ml[IQR 278–2535 pg/ml]) and IL-2 (164 pg/ml[11–590 pg/ml]) than low risk groups 149 pg/ml(25–497 pg/ml), and 0 pg/ml(0–3 pg/ml), respectively. There was excellent agreement (>89%,k>0.80) between IP-10, IL-2 tests and QFT-IT, better than with TST (>74%,k>0.49). The IP-10 and IL-2 responses were strongly associated with M.tuberculosis exposure and with grade of infectiousness of the index cases (p<0.0001). IP-10, IL-2, and TST but not QFT-IT was associated with age of the child in the low risk groups (p<0.02). Conclusions/Significance IP-10 is expressed in high levels and results of the IP-10 test were comparable to the QFT-IT. IL-2 was released in low amounts in response to the antigens and not in response to the mitogen therefore IL-2 seems a less useful marker. We have demonstrated that IP-10 and possibly IL-2 could be alternative or adjunct markers to IFN-γ in the diagnosis infection with M.tuberculosis

Is IP-10 a Better Biomarker for Active and Latent Tuberculosis in Children than IFNγ?

Background: The blood based interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) for the diagnosis of tuberculosis do not discriminate between active TB disease and latent TB infection (LTBI). The search for distinguishing biomarkers therefore continues, as the accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis is particularly challenging in children. IFN-c-inducible protein 10 (IP-10/CXCL10) has recently been evaluated as a marker for active TB in adults with promising results. Aim: To investigate this new biomarker for active TB and LTBI in paediatrics. Method: We measured IP-10 levels using ELISA in supernatants of whole blood samples stimulated with TB-specificantigens and negative control antigen. Results: IP-10 is produced in high levels following mycobacterial antigen stimulation in active TB (n = 17) and LTBI (n = 16) compared to controls (n = 16) and to IFN-c. The baseline levels of IP-10 are increased in active TB and in LTBI, but there is no significant difference of stimulated levels of IP-10 between active TB and LTBI. Conclusions: IP-10 is a biomarker for tuberculosis in children. However like IFNc, IP-10 also does not distinguish between active TB and LTBI

British container breeding mosquitoes: the impact of urbanisation and climate change on community composition and phenology

The proliferation of artificial container habitats in urban areas has benefitted urban adaptable mosquito species globally. In areas where mosquitoes transmit viruses and parasites, it can promote vector population productivity and fuel mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. In Britain, storage of water in garden water butts is increasing, potentially expanding mosquito larval habitats and influencing population dynamics and mosquito-human contact. Here we show that the community composition, abundance and phenology of mosquitoes breeding in experimental water butt containers were influenced by urbanisation. Mosquitoes in urban containers were less species-rich but present in significantly higher densities (100.4±21.3) per container than those in rural containers (77.7±15.1). Urban containers were dominated by Culex pipiens (a potential vector of West Nile Virus [WNV]) and appear to be increasingly exploited by Anopheles plumbeus (a human-biting potential WNV and malaria vector). Culex phenology was influenced by urban land use type, with peaks in larval abundances occurring earlier in urban than rural containers. Among other factors, this was associated with an urban heat island effect which raised urban air and water temperatures by 0.9°C and 1.2°C respectively. Further increases in domestic water storage, particularly in urban areas, in combination with climate changes will likely alter mosquito population dynamics in the UK

Building Babies - Chapter 16

In contrast to birds, male mammals rarely help to raise the offspring. Of all mammals, only among rodents, carnivores, and primates, males are sometimes intensively engaged in providing infant care (Kleiman and Malcolm 1981). Male caretaking of infants has long been recognized in nonhuman primates (Itani 1959). Given that infant care behavior can have a positive effect on the infant’s development, growth, well-being, or survival, why are male mammals not more frequently involved in “building babies”? We begin the chapter defining a few relevant terms and introducing the theory and hypotheses that have historically addressed the evolution of paternal care. We then review empirical findings on male care among primate taxa, before focusing, in the final section, on our own work on paternal care in South American owl monkeys (Aotus spp.). We conclude the chapter with some suggestions for future studies.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (HU 1746/2-1) Wenner-Gren Foundation, the L.S.B. Leakey Foundation, the National Geographic Society, the National Science Foundation (BCS-0621020), the University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation, the Zoological Society of San Dieg

Corticosteroid suppression of lipoxin A4 and leukotriene B4from alveolar macrophages in severe asthma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An imbalance in the generation of pro-inflammatory leukotrienes, and counter-regulatory lipoxins is present in severe asthma. We measured leukotriene B₄(LTB₄), and lipoxin A₄(LXA₄) production by alveolar macrophages (AMs) and studied the impact of corticosteroids.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>AMs obtained by fiberoptic bronchoscopy from 14 non-asthmatics, 12 non-severe and 11 severe asthmatics were stimulated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS,10 μg/ml) with or without dexamethasone (10^-6M). LTB₄and LXA₄were measured by enzyme immunoassay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>LXA₄biosynthesis was decreased from severe asthma AMs compared to non-severe (p < 0.05) and normal subjects (p < 0.001). LXA₄induced by LPS was highest in normal subjects and lowest in severe asthmatics (p < 0.01). Basal levels of LTB₄were decreased in severe asthmatics compared to normal subjects (p < 0.05), but not to non-severe asthma. LPS-induced LTB₄was increased in severe asthma compared to non-severe asthma (p < 0.05). Dexamethasone inhibited LPS-induced LTB₄and LXA₄, with lesser suppression of LTB₄in severe asthma patients (p < 0.05). There was a significant correlation between LPS-induced LXA₄and FEV₁(% predicted) (r_s= 0.60; p < 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Decreased LXA₄and increased LTB₄generation plus impaired corticosteroid sensitivity of LPS-induced LTB₄but not of LXA₄support a role for AMs in establishing a pro-inflammatory balance in severe asthma.</p

Limits on WWZ and WW\gamma couplings from p\bar{p}\to e\nu jj X events at \sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV

We present limits on anomalous WWZ and WW-gamma couplings from a search for WW and WZ production in p-bar p collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV. We use p-bar p -> e-nu jjX events recorded with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider during the 1992-1995 run. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 96.0+-5.1 pb^(-1). Assuming identical WWZ and WW-gamma coupling parameters, the 95% CL limits on the CP-conserving couplings are -0.33<lambda<0.36 (Delta-kappa=0) and -0.43<Delta-kappa<0.59 (lambda=0), for a form factor scale Lambda = 2.0 TeV. Limits based on other assumptions are also presented.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 2 table

Search for New Physics in e mu X Data at D0 Using Sleuth: A Quasi-Model-Independent Search Strategy for New Physics

We present a quasi-model-independent search for the physics responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking. We define final states to be studied, and construct a rule that identifies a set of relevant variables for any particular final state. A new algorithm ("Sleuth") searches for regions of excess in those variables and quantifies the significance of any detected excess. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the method, we apply it to the semi-inclusive channel e mu X collected in 108 pb^-1 of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV at the D0 experiment during 1992-1996 at the Fermilab Tevatron. We find no evidence of new high p_T physics in this sample.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Physical Review