The fate of baryons in counterfactual universes

We present results from nine simulations that compare the standard $\Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter cosmology ($\Lambda$CDM) with counterfactual universes, for approximately $100\,{\rm Gyr}$ using the Enzo simulation code. We vary the value of $\Lambda$ and the fluctuation amplitude to explore the effect on the evolution of the halo mass function (HMF), the intergalactic medium (IGM) and the star formation history (SFH). The distinct peak in star formation rate density (SFRD) and its subsequent decline are both affected by the interplay between gravitational attraction and the accelerating effects of $\Lambda$. The IGM cools down more rapidly in models with a larger $\Lambda$ and also with a lower $\sigma_8$, reflecting the reduced SFRD associated with these changes -- although changing $\sigma_8$ is not degenerate with changing $\Lambda$, either regarding the thermal history of the IGM or the SFH. However, these induced changes to the IGM or ionizing background have little impact on the calculated SFRD. We provide fits for the evolution of the SFRD in these different universes, which we integrate over time to derive an asymptotic star formation efficiency. Together with Weinberg's uniform prior on $\Lambda$, the estimated probability of observers experiencing a value of $\Lambda$ no greater than the observed value is 13%, substantially larger than some alternative estimates. Within the Enzo model framework, then, observer selection within a multiverse is able to account statistically for the small value of the cosmological constant, although $\Lambda$ in our universe does appear to be at the low end of the predicted range.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, MNRAS: MN-22-1662-MJ.R

A Reappraisal of the U.S. Clinical Trials of Post-Treatment Lyme Disease Syndrome

Four federally funded randomized placebo-controlled treatment trials of post-treatment Lyme syndrome in the United States have been conducted. Most international treatment guidelines summarize these trials as having shown no acute or sustained benefit to repeated antibiotic therapy. The goal of this paper is to determine whether this summary conclusion is supported by the evidence. Methods: The methods and results of the 4 U.S. treatment trials are described and their critiques evaluated. Results: 2 of the 4 U.S. treatment trials demonstrated efficacy of IV ceftriaxone on primary and/or secondary outcome measures. Conclusions: Future treatment guidelines should clarify that efficacy of IV ceftriaxone for post-treatment Lyme fatigue was demonstrated in one RCT and supported by a second RCT, but that its use was not recommended primarily due to adverse events stemming from the IV route of treatment. While repeated IV antibiotic therapy can be effective, safer modes of delivery are needed

The fate of baryons in counterfactual universes

We present results from nine simulations that compare the standard $\Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter cosmology ($\Lambda$CDM) with counterfactual universes, for approximately $100\,{\rm Gyr}$ using the Enzo simulation code. We vary the value of $\Lambda$ and the fluctuation amplitude to explore the effect on the evolution of the halo mass function (HMF), the intergalactic medium (IGM) and the star formation history (SFH). The distinct peak in star formation rate density (SFRD) and its subsequent decline are both affected by the interplay between gravitational attraction and the accelerating effects of $\Lambda$. The IGM cools down more rapidly in models with a larger $\Lambda$ and also with a lower $\sigma_8$, reflecting the reduced SFRD associated with these changes -- although changing $\sigma_8$ is not degenerate with changing $\Lambda$, either regarding the thermal history of the IGM or the SFH. However, these induced changes to the IGM or ionizing background have little impact on the calculated SFRD. We provide fits for the evolution of the SFRD in these different universes, which we integrate over time to derive an asymptotic star formation efficiency. Together with Weinberg's uniform prior on $\Lambda$, the estimated probability of observers experiencing a value of $\Lambda$ no greater than the observed value is 13%, substantially larger than some alternative estimates. Within the Enzo model framework, then, observer selection within a multiverse is able to account statistically for the small value of the cosmological constant, although $\Lambda$ in our universe does appear to be at the low end of the predicted range.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, MNRAS: MN-22-1662-MJ.R

Evolving beyond z=0: insights about the future of stars and the intergalactic medium

We present results from seven cosmological simulations that have been extended beyond the present era as far as redshift $z=-0.995$ or $t\approx96\,{\rm Gyr}$, using the Enzo simulation code. We adopt the calibrated star formation and feedback prescriptions from our previous work on reproducing the Milky Way with Enzo with modifications to the simulation code, chemistry and cooling library. We then consider the future behaviour of the halo mass function (HMF), the equation of state (EOS) of the IGM, and the cosmic star formation history (SFH). Consistent with previous work, we find a freeze-out in the HMF at $z\approx-0.6$. The evolution of the EOS of the IGM presents an interesting case study of the cosmological coincidence problem, where there is a sharp decline in the IGM temperature immediately after $z=0$. For the SFH, the simulations produce a peak and a subsequent decline into the future. However, we do find a turnaround in the SFH after $z\approx-0.98$ in some simulations, probably due to the limitations of the criteria used for star formation. By integrating the SFH in time up to $z=-0.92$, the simulation with the best spatial resolution predicts an asymptotic total stellar mass that is very close to that obtained from extrapolating the fit of the observed SFR. Lastly, we investigate the future evolution of the partition of baryons within a Milky Way-sized galaxy, using both a zoom and a box simulation. Despite vastly different resolutions, these simulations predict individual haloes containing an equal fraction of baryons in stars and gas at the time of freeze-out ($t\approx30\,{\rm Gyr}$)

Calibration of a star formation and feedback model for cosmological simulations with Enzo

We present results from seventy-one zoom simulations of a Milky Way-sized (MW) halo, exploring the parameter space for a widely-used star formation and feedback model in the {\tt Enzo} simulation code. We propose a novel way to match observations, using functional fits to the observed baryon makeup over a wide range of halo masses. The model MW galaxy is calibrated using three parameters: the star formation efficiency $\left(f_*\right)$, the efficiency of thermal energy from stellar feedback $\left(\epsilon\right)$ and the region into which feedback is injected $\left(r\ {\rm and}\ s\right)$. We find that changing the amount of feedback energy affects the baryon content most significantly. We then identify two sets of feedback parameter values that are both able to reproduce the baryonic properties for haloes between $10^{10}\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$ and $10^{12}\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$. We can potentially improve the agreement by incorporating more parameters or physics. If we choose to focus on one property at a time, we can obtain a more realistic halo baryon makeup. We show that the employed feedback prescription is insensitive to dark matter mass resolution between $10^5\,{\rm M_\odot}$ and $10^7\,{\rm M_\odot}$. Contrasting both star formation criteria and the corresponding combination of optimal feedback parameters, we also highlight that feedback is self-consistent: to match the same baryonic properties, with a relatively higher gas to stars conversion efficiency, the feedback strength required is lower, and vice versa. Lastly, we demonstrate that chaotic variance in the code can cause deviations of approximately 10\% and 25\% in the stellar and baryon mass in simulations evolved from identical initial conditions

Corrugated Silicon Platelet Feed Horn Array for CMB Polarimetry at 150 GHz

Next generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization anisotropy measurements will feature focal plane arrays with more than 600 millimeter-wave detectors. We make use of high-resolution photolithography and wafer-scale etch tools to build planar arrays of corrugated platelet feeds in silicon with highly symmetric beams, low cross-polarization and low side lobes. A compact Au-plated corrugated Si feed designed for 150 GHz operation exhibited performance equivalent to that of electroformed feeds: ~-0.2 dB insertion loss, <-20 dB return loss from 120 GHz to 170 GHz, <-25 dB side lobes and <-23 dB cross-polarization. We are currently fabricating a 50 mm diameter array with 84 horns consisting of 33 Si platelets as a prototype for the SPTpol and ACTpol telescopes. Our fabrication facilities permit arrays up to 150 mm in diameter.Comment: 12 pages; SPIE proceedings for Millimeter, Submillimeter, and Far-Infrared Detectors and Instrumentation for Astronomy V (Conference 7741, June 2010, San Diego, CA, USA

The potential to improve ascertainment and intervention to reduce smoking in Primary Care: a cross sectional survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Well established clinical guidelines recommend that systematic ascertainment of smoking status and intervention to promote cessation in all smokers should be a fundamental component of all health care provision. This study aims to establish the completeness and accuracy of smoking status recording in patients' primary care medical records and the level of interest in receiving smoking cessation support amongst primary care patients in an inner city UK population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Postal questionnaires were sent to all patients aged over 18 from 24 general practices in Nottingham UK who were registered as smokers or had no smoking status recorded in their medical notes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of patients with a smoking status recorded varied between practices from 42.4% to 100% (median 90%). Of the recorded smokers who responded to our questionnaire (35.5% of the total), a median of 20.3% reported that they had not smoked cigarettes or tobacco in the last 12 months. Of respondents with no recorded smoking status, 29.8% reported themselves to be current smokers. Of the 6856 responding individuals thus identified as current smokers, 41.4% indicated that they would like to speak to a specialist smoking adviser to help them stop smoking. This proportion increased with socioeconomic disadvantage (measured by the Townsend Index) from 39.1% in the least deprived to 44.6% in the most deprived quintile.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Whilst in many practices the ascertainment of smoking status is incomplete and/or inaccurate, failure to intervene appropriately on known status still remains the biggest challenge.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN71514078.</p

Promoting the use of non-lethal sample collection for analysing the trophic relationships of inshore flatfish populations using stable isotope analysis

Trophic studies on inshore flatfish populations usually rely on stomach content analyses and/or stable isotope analysis (SIA) of dorsal white muscle that involves the collection of samples from euthanised fishes. To promote the use of non-lethal sampling methods in inshore flatfish populations of relatively high intrinsic angling and/or ecological value, the applicability of using fin tissue and/or epidermal mucus as non-lethal alternatives to muscle in SIA studies was assessed for European flounder Platichthys flesus, plaice Pleuronectes platessa and common sole Solea solea. In all species, the results indicated that there were significant differences in the δ13C and δ15N values of dorsal muscle versus their fin and mucus samples. These significant differences were, however, predictable by linear regression, with regression coefficients produced for converting fin and mucus SI values to the equivalent muscle SI values. The use of combined data across the species also provided regression coefficients for converting fin and mucus SI to equivalent muscle values for flatfish populations more generally. These results indicated that there are tissue alternatives to dorsal muscle that can be applied to the SIA of flatfish populations, with these tissues able to be collected using non-lethal sampling methods

Cool-edge populations of the kelp Ecklonia radiata under global ocean change scenarios:strong sensitivity to ocean warming but little effect of ocean acidification

Kelp forests are threatened by ocean warming, yet effects of co-occurring drivers such as CO2 are rarely considered when predicting their performance in the future. In Australia, the kelp Ecklonia radiata forms extensive forests across seawater temperatures of approximately 7-26°C. Cool-edge populations are typically considered more thermally tolerant than their warm-edge counterparts but this ignores the possibility of local adaptation. Moreover, it is unknown whether elevated CO2 can mitigate negative effects of warming. To identify whether elevated CO2 could improve thermal performance of a cool-edge population of E. radiata, we constructed thermal performance curves for growth and photosynthesis, under both current and elevated CO2 (approx. 400 and 1000 µatm). We then modelled annual performance under warming scenarios to highlight thermal susceptibility. Elevated CO2 had minimal effect on growth but increased photosynthesis around the thermal optimum. Thermal optima were approximately 16°C for growth and approximately 18°C for photosynthesis, and modelled performance indicated cool-edge populations may be vulnerable in the future. Our findings demonstrate that elevated CO2 is unlikely to offset negative effects of ocean warming on the kelp E. radiata and highlight the potential susceptibility of cool-edge populations to ocean warming.</p

Phenylethynyl Terminated Imide (PETI) Composites Made by High Temperature VARTM

Fabrication of composite structures using vacuum assisted resin transfer molding (VARTM) is generally more affordable than conventional autoclave techniques. Recent efforts have focused on adapting VARTM for the fabrication of high temperature composites. Due to their low melt viscosity and long melt stability, certain phenylethynyl terminated imides (PETI) can be processed into composites using high temperature VARTM (HT-VARTM). However, one of the disadvantages of the current HT-VARTM resin systems has been the high porosity of the resultant composites. For aerospace applications, a void fraction of <2% is desired. In the current study, two PETI resins, LARC. PETI-330 and LARC. PETI-8 have been used to fabricate test specimens using HT-VARTM. The resins were infused into carbon fiber preforms at 260 C and cured between 316 and 371 C. Photomicrographs of the panels were taken and void contents were determined by acid digestion. Modifications to the thermal cycle used in the laminate fabrication have reduced the void content significantly; typically .3% for carbon fiber biaxially woven fabric and less than 2% for carbon fiber uniaxial fabric. Mechanical properties (short beam shear and flexure) of the panels were determined at both room and elevated temperatures. The results of this work are presented herein. This paper is declared a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States