Monitoring dynamics of urban landscape using spatial morphological indices: a case study of Thames Gateway area

Land use changes are results of interaction (over time and space) between humans and their physical environment. Cities and urban landscapes reflect the social, economic, political, environmental as well as technological processes in their changes as evident in their pattern and structures. This study tests the use of morphological indices for monitoring landscapes in a heavily modified landscape (urban). The study analyses the spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover pattern in the area adjoining the Thames Gateway and selected parts of Greater London, UK. The investigation focuses on an examination of the temporal changes of various land use types as well as their structural properties and distribution over this period

Heatwaves: an invisible risk in UK policy and research

In 2019, a heatwave – an unusual extended period of hot weather – broke the UK’s highest recorded temperature of 38.7 °C set in 2003. Of concern is that for summer 2019, this resulted in 892 excess deaths. With the intensity and frequency of UK heatwaves projected to increase, and summer temperatures predicted to be 5 °C hotter by 2070, urgent action is needed to prepare for, and adapt to, the changes now and to come. Yet it remains unclear what actions are needed and by whom. In response, a systematic literature review of UK heatwaves peer-reviewed publications, inclusive of keyword criteria (total papers returned = 183), was conducted to understand what lessons have been learnt and what needs to happen next. Our research shows that heatwaves remain largely an invisible risk in the UK. Communication over what UK residents should do, the support needed to make changes, and their capacity to enact those changes, is often lacking. In turn, there is an inherent bias where research focuses too narrowly on the health and building sectors over other critical sectors, such as agriculture. An increased amount of action and leadership is therefore necessary from the UK government to address this

Automated updating of road network databases: road segment grouping using snap-drift neural network

Presented in this paper is a major step towards an innovative solution of GIS road network databases updating which moves away from existing traditional methods where vendors of road network databases go through the time consuming and logistically challenging process of driving along roads to register changes or GIS road network update methods that are exclusively tied to remote sensing images. Our proposed road database update solution would allow users of GIS road network dependent applications (e.g. in-car navigation system) to passively collect characteristics of any “unknown route” (roads not in the database) on behalf of the provider. These data are transferred back to the provider and inputted into an artificial neural net (ANN) which decides, along with similar track data provided by other service users, whether to automatically update (add) the “unknown road” to the road database on probation allowing subsequent users to see the road on their system and use it if need be. At a later stage when there is enough certainty on road geometry and other characteristics the probationary flag could be lifted and permanently added to the road network database. Towards this novel approach we mimicked two journey scenarios covering two test sites and aimed to group the road segments from the journey into their respective road types using the snap-drift neural network (SDNN). The performance of the SDNN is presented and its potential in the proposed solution is investigated

Association of comorbidity and health service usage among patients with dementia in the UK: a population-based study

$\textbf{BACKGROUND}$: The majority of people with dementia have other long-term diseases, the presence of which may affect the progression and management of dementia. This study aimed to identify subgroups with higher healthcare needs, by analysing how primary care consultations, number of prescriptions and hospital admissions by people with dementia varies with having additional long-term diseases (comorbidity). $\textbf{METHODS}$: A retrospective cohort study based on health data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) was conducted. Incident cases of dementia diagnosed in the year starting 1/3/2008 were selected and followed for up to 5 years. The number of comorbidities was obtained from a set of 34 chronic health conditions. Service usage (primary care consultations, hospitalisations and prescriptions) and time-to-death were determined during follow-up. Multilevel negative binomial regression and Cox regression, adjusted for age and gender, were used to model differences in service usage and death between differing numbers of comorbidities. $\textbf{RESULTS}$: Data from 4999 people (14 866 person-years of follow-up) were analysed. Overall, 91.7% of people had 1 or more additional comorbidities. Compared with those with 2 or 3 comorbidities, people with ≥6 comorbidities had higher rates of primary care consultations (rate ratio (RR) 1.31, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.36), prescriptions (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.57 to 1.81), and hospitalisation (RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.83), and higher risk of death (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.78). $\textbf{DISCUSSION}$: In the UK, people with dementia with higher numbers of comorbidities die earlier and have considerably higher health service usage in terms of primary care consultations, hospital admissions and prescribing. This study provides strong evidence that comorbidity is a key factor that should be considered when allocating resources and planning care for people with dementia

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the medical care and health-care behaviour of patients with lupus and other systemic autoimmune diseases: a mixed methods longitudinal study

Objective: The aim was to explore the self-reported impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on changes to care and behaviour in UK patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases, to help ensure that patient experiences are considered in future pandemic planning. Methods: This was a longitudinal mixed methods study, with a cohort completing baseline surveys in March 2020 and follow-up surveys in June 2020 (n = 111), combined with thematic analysis of the LUPUS UK forum and participant interviews (n = 28). Results: Cancellations of routine care and difficulties in accessing medical support contributed to some participants deteriorating physically, including reports of hospitalizations. The majority of participants reported that fear of COVID-19 and disruptions to their medical care had also adversely impacted their mental health. Feeling medically supported during the pandemic was correlated with multiple measures of mental health and perceptions of care, including the Warwick-Edinburgh mental well-being score (r = 0.44, P = 0.01). Five themes were identified: detrimental reduction in care; disparities in contact and communication (medical security vs abandonment sub-theme); perceived and actual endangerment; the perfect storm of reduced clinician ability to help and increased patient reticence to seek help; and identifying the patients most vulnerable to reduced medical care. Conclusion: The diversion of resources away from chronic disease care was perceived by many participants to have caused adverse outcomes. Fear about increased vulnerability to COVID-19 was high, contributing to health-care-avoidant behaviours. This study also highlights the influence of clinician accessibility and patients feeling medically supported on multiple measures of physical and mental health

Telemedicine in rheumatology: A mixed methods study exploring acceptability, preferences and experiences among patients and clinicians

OBJECTIVES: The Covid-19 pandemic necessitated a rapid global transition towards telemedicine; yet much remains unknown about telemedicine's acceptability and safety in rheumatology. To help address this gap and inform practice, this study investigated rheumatology patient and clinician experiences and views of telemedicine. METHODS: Sequential mixed methodology combined analysis of surveys and in-depth interviews. Between and within-group differences in views of telemedicine were examined for patients and clinicians using t-tests. RESULTS: Surveys (Patients n = 1,340, Clinicians n = 111) and interviews (Patients n = 31, Clinicians n = 29) were completed between April 2021 and July 2021. The majority of patients were from the UK (96%) and had inflammatory arthritis (32%) or lupus (32%). Patients and clinicians rated telemedicine as worse than face-to-face consultations in almost all categories, although >60% found it more convenient. Building trusting medical relationships and assessment accuracy were great concerns (93% of clinicians and 86% of patients rated telemedicine as worse than face-to-face for assessment accuracy). Telemedicine was perceived to have increased misdiagnoses, inequalities and barriers to accessing care. Participants reported highly disparate telemedicine delivery and responsiveness from primary and secondary care. Although rheumatology clinicians highlighted the importance of a quick response to flaring patients, only 55% of patients were confident that their rheumatology department would respond within 48 hours. CONCLUSION: Findings indicate a preference for face-to-face consultations. Some negative experiences may be due to the pandemic rather than telemedicine specifically, although the risk of greater diagnostic inaccuracies using telemedicine is unlikely to be fully resolved. Training, choice, careful patient selection, and further consultation with clinicians and patients is required to increase telemedicine's acceptability and safety

The feasibility of population screening for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation using hand-held electrocardiogram devices

Aims: There are few data on the feasibility of population screening for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) using hand-held electrocardiogram (ECG) devices outside a specialist setting or in people over the age of 75. We investigated the feasibility of screening when conducted without face-to-face contact (‘remote’) or via in-person appointments in primary care and explored impact of age on screening outcomes. Methods and results: People aged ≥65 years from 13 general practices in England participated in screening during 2019–20. This involved attending a practice nurse appointment (10 practices) or receiving an ECG device by post (three practices). Participants were asked to use a hand-held ECG for 1–4 weeks. Screening outcomes included uptake, quality of ECGs, AF detection rates, and uptake of anticoagulation if AF was detected. Screening was carried out by 2141 (87.5%) of people invited to practice nurse-led screening and by 288 (90.0%) invited to remote screening. At least 56 interpretable ECGs were provided by 98.0% of participants who participated for 3 weeks, with no significant differences by setting or age, except people aged 85 or over (91.1%). Overall, 2.6% (64/2429) screened participants had AF, with detection rising with age (9.2% in people aged 85 or over). A total of 53/64 (82.8%) people with AF commenced anticoagulation. Uptake of anticoagulation did not vary by age. Conclusion: Population screening for paroxysmal AF is feasible in general practice and without face-to-face contact for all ages over 64 years, including people aged 85 and over

Reliability of single-lead electrocardiogram interpretation to detect atrial fibrillation: insights from the SAFER feasibility study

Aims: Single-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) can be recorded using widely available devices such as smartwatches and handheld ECG recorders. Such devices have been approved for atrial fibrillation (AF) detection. However, little evidence exists on the reliability of single-lead ECG interpretation. We aimed to assess the level of agreement on detection of AF by independent cardiologists interpreting single-lead ECGs and to identify factors influencing agreement. Methods and results: In a population-based AF screening study, adults aged ≥65 years old recorded four single-lead ECGs per day for 1–4 weeks using a handheld ECG recorder. Electrocardiograms showing signs of possible AF were identified by a nurse, aided by an automated algorithm. These were reviewed by two independent cardiologists who assigned participant- and ECG-level diagnoses. Inter-rater reliability of AF diagnosis was calculated using linear weighted Cohen’s kappa (κw). Out of 2141 participants and 162 515 ECGs, only 1843 ECGs from 185 participants were reviewed by both cardiologists. Agreement was moderate: κw = 0.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.37–0.58) at participant level and κw = 0.58 (0.53–0.62) at ECG level. At participant level, agreement was associated with the number of adequate-quality ECGs recorded, with higher agreement in participants who recorded at least 67 adequate-quality ECGs. At ECG level, agreement was associated with ECG quality and whether ECGs exhibited algorithm-identified possible AF. Conclusion: Inter-rater reliability of AF diagnosis from single-lead ECGs was found to be moderate in older adults. Strategies to improve reliability might include participant and cardiologist training and designing AF detection programmes to obtain sufficient ECGs for reliable diagnoses

Diagnosis of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in primary care : Cohort study

Aims Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) accounts for half of all heart failure (HF), but low awareness and diagnostic challenges hinder identification in primary care. Our aims were to evaluate the recruitment and diagnostic strategy in the Optimise HFpEF cohort and compare with recent recommendations for diagnosing HFpEF. Methods and results Patients were recruited from 30 primary care practices in two regions in England using an electronic screening algorithm and two secondary care sites. Baseline assessment collected clinical and patient-reported data and diagnosis by history, assessment, and trans-thoracic echocardiogram (TTE). A retrospective evaluation compared study diagnosis with H2FPEF score and HFA-PEFF diagnostic algorithm. A total of 152 patients (86% primary care, mean age 78.5, 40% female) were enrolled; 93 (61%) had HFpEF confirmed. Most participants had clinical features of HFpEF, but those with confirmed HFpEF were more likely female, obese, functionally impaired, and symptomatic. Some echocardiographic findings were diagnostic for HFpEF, but no difference in natriuretic peptide levels were observed. The H2FPEF and HFA-PEFF scores were not significantly different by group, although confirmed HFpEF cases were more likely to have scores indicating high probability of HFpEF. Conclusions Patients with HFpEF in primary care are difficult to identify, and greater awareness of the condition, with clear diagnostic pathways and specialist support, are needed. Use of diagnostic algorithms and scores can provide systematic approaches to diagnosis but may be challenging to apply in older multi-morbid patients. Where diagnostic uncertainty remains, pragmatic decisions are needed regarding the value of additional testing versus management of presumptive HFpEF